by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2025 07:15:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So, I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Deaths per Week	602	658	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts. 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths. ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported since Jan 2023.

Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting in June 2023 (low of 314 deaths), I've continued to post since deaths are above the goal again - and I'll continue to post until weekly deaths are once again below the goal.

Weekly deaths are now decreasing following the winter pickup and about double the low of last June.

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of March 27th:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.  This has generally been moving down.

Nationally COVID in wastewater is "Low", down from "Moderate" last week according to the CDC.   

by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2025 04:38:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Unchanged in February

Excerpt:

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in February was 0.61%, unchanged from 0.61% January. Freddie's rate is up year-over-year from 0.54% in February 2024, however, this is close to the pre-pandemic level of 0.60%.

Some of the recent increase in the 90+ day delinquency rate is probably related to the hurricanes last year.

Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in February was 0.57%, unchanged from 0.57% in January. The serious delinquency rate is up year-over-year from 0.53% in February 2024, however, this is below the pre-pandemic lows of 0.65%.

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2025 11:20:00 AM

UPDATE: Updated Goldman tracking this morning.

From BofA:

1Q GDP tracking is down from our recently updated official forecast of 1.5% q/q saar to 1.0% q/q saar. [Mar 28th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.4pp to +0.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Mar 28th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent on March 28, down from -1.8 percent on March 26. The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is -0.5 percent. [Mar 28th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2025 08:56:00 AM

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through February 2025.

CPI Shelter was up 4.2% year-over-year in February, down from 4.4% in January, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.

Housing (PCE) was up 4.3% YoY in February, down from 4.5% in January and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.

Since asking rents are mostly flat year-over-year, these measures will slowly continue to decline over the next year as rents for existing tenants continue to increase.

The second graph shows PCE prices, Core PCE prices and Core ex-housing over the last 3 months (annualized):

Key measures are well above the Fed's target on a 3-month basis. Note: There is possibly some residual seasonality distorting PCE prices in Q1, especially in January.

3-month annualized change:

PCE Price Index: 3.9%
Core PCE Prices: 3.6%
Core minus Housing: 3.5%

by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2025 08:30:00 AM

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February:

Personal income increased $194.7 billion (0.8 percent at a monthly rate) in February, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $191.6 billion (0.9 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $87.8 billion (0.4 percent).

Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $118.4 billion in February. Personal saving was $1.02 trillion in February and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.6 percent.

From the preceding month, the PCE price index for February increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.4 percent.

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for February increased 2.5 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.8 percent from one year ago.
emphasis added

The February PCE price index increased 2.5 percent year-over-year (YoY), unchanged from 2.5 percent YoY in January, and down from the recent peak of 7.2 percent in June 2022.

The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.8 percent YoY, up from 2.7 percent in January, and down from the recent peak of 5.6 percent in February 2022.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through February 2025 (2017 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

Personal income was above expectations.  PCE was at expectations.

Inflation was above expectations.

Using the two-month method to estimate Q1 real PCE growth, real PCE was increasing at a 0.9% annual rate in Q1 2024. (Using the mid-month method, real PCE was increasing at 0.2%).  This suggests weak PCE growth in Q1.

by Calculated Risk on 3/27/2025 08:13:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for February. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.6% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%.  PCE prices are expected to be up 2.5% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.7% YoY.

• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for March). The consensus is for a reading of 57.9.

• Also at 10:00 AM, State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for February 2025

by Calculated Risk on 3/27/2025 05:50:00 PM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 29.2% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending March 22, 2025

• Active inventory climbed 29.2% from a year ago

The number of homes actively for sale remains significantly higher than last year, continuing a 72-week streak of annual gains. This year-over-year inventory growth gives buyers more choices and encourages more competitive pricing among sellers. However, the inventory level is still below pre-pandemic norms, and supply constraints in many markets continue to limit buyer flexibility.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—increased 8.2%

New listings were up 8.2% compared with this time last year, marking the 11th straight week of annual growth.

• The median list price was unchanged year-over-year

The national median list price was unchanged from a year ago, continuing a 43-week streak where prices have either remained flat or declined compared with the same time last year. Rather than signaling a turnaround, this stability suggests that prices are holding steady as the market adjusts to higher borrowing costs and a growing number of listings.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 72nd consecutive week.  

New listings have increased recently but remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.

Median prices are mostly unchanged year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 3/27/2025 02:47:00 PM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 22 March

The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 22 March. ...

16-22 March 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 66.0% (+1.0%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$165.48 (+1.8%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$109.22 (+2.8%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking below last year and is lower than the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will mostly move sideways until the summer travel season.  We might see a hit to occupancy during the summer months due to less international tourism.

by Calculated Risk on 3/27/2025 11:28:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below 2022 Peak

Excerpt:

It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the January Case-Shiller house price index released this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 78% above the bubble peak in 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 12% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The composite 20, in real terms, is 3% above the bubble peak.

People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms. As an example, if a house price was $300,000 in January 2010, the price would be $440,000 today adjusted for inflation (47% increase). That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices.

The third graph shows the price-to-rent ratio, and the fourth graph is the affordability index. The last graph shows the 5-year real return based on the Case-Shiller National Index.
...
The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI).

In real terms (using CPI), the National index is 0.8% below the recent peak, and the Composite 20 index is 1.2% below the recent peak in 2022. The real National index and the Composite 20 index increased slightly in real terms in January.

It has now been 32 months since the real peak in house prices. Typically, after a sharp increase in prices, it takes a number of years for real prices to reach new highs (see House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory)

There is much more in the article!

by Calculated Risk on 3/27/2025 10:00:00 AM

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Advanced 2.0% in February

Pending home sales improved 2.0% in February according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Northeast and West experienced month-over-month losses in transactions – with a larger decrease in the West – while the Midwest and South saw gains, which were greatest in the South. Year-over-year, contract signings dropped in all four U.S. regions, with the Midwest undergoing the greatest reduction.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – grew 2.0% to 72.0 in February. Year-over-year, pending transactions declined 3.6%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.

"Despite the modest monthly increase, contract signings remain well below normal historical levels," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "A meaningful decline in mortgage rates would help both demand and supply – demand by boosting affordability, and supply by lessening the power of the mortgage rate lock-in effect."
...
The Northeast PHSI fell 0.9% from last month to 62.8, down 2.5% from February 2024. The Midwest index inched up 0.7% to 73.3 in February, down 4.7% from the previous year.

The South PHSI jumped 6.2% to 86.0 in February, down 3.4% from a year ago. The West index contracted by 3.0% from the prior month to 55.9, down 3.5% from February 2024.
emphasis added

Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in March and April.