by Calculated Risk on 3/20/2025 01:47:00 PM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 28.5% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending March 15, 2025

• Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 28.5% above year-ago levels

The number of homes for sale has now been higher than the previous year for 71 consecutive weeks. This continued rise in active inventory is in part due to less active buyers. With more choices available, buyers can afford to be more selective, putting pressure on sellers to price competitively.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—increased 10.4%

Newly listed inventory grew for the 10th consecutive week, signaling that sellers are gaining confidence in listing their homes despite persistently high mortgage rates. This week’s annual growth picked up compared with last week.

• The median list price was flat year over year

This marks the 42nd consecutive week that the national median home list price has either remained steady or declined compared with the same week last year. Importantly, the annual difference narrowed for the third consecutive week and prices measured flat year over year for the first time since last fall. Controlling for the size of the home, the median list price per square foot increased by 1.3% annually, suggesting there are more smaller homes on the market compared with last year. The share of homes with a price reduction increased by 0.8% this week, pointing to more seller adjustments in light of growing inventory and a slowing market pace.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 71st consecutive week.  

New listings have increased recently but remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.

Median prices are mostly unchanged year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 3/20/2025 10:51:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 million SAAR in February; Down 1.2% YoY

Excerpt:

Sales in February (4.26 million SAAR) were up 4.2% from the previous month and were 1.2% below the February 2024 sales rate. This breaks the streak of fourth consecutive year-over-year increases in sales.
...
Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)

The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2024 and 2025.

Sales decreased 1.2% year-over-year compared to February 2024.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 3/20/2025 10:00:00 AM

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Accelerated 4.2% in February

Existing-home sales ascended in February, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. For both monthly and year-over-year sales, two major U.S. regions experienced growth, one region remained stable and the other registered a decline.

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – progressed 4.2% from January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million in February. Year-over-year, sales slid 1.2% (down from 4.31 million in February 2024).
...
Total housing inventory registered at the end of February was 1.24 million units, up 5.1% from January and 17% from one year ago (1.06 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.5-month supply at the current sales pace, identical to January and up from 3.0 months in February 2024.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in February (4.26 million SAAR) were up 4.2% from the previous month and were 1.2% below the February 2024 sales rate.  This breaks the streak of fourth consecutive year-over-year increases in sales. 

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.24 million in February from 1.18 million the previous month.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was up 17.0% year-over-year (blue) in February compared to February 2024.

Months of supply (red) was unchanged at 3.5 months in February from 3.5 months the previous month.

As expected, the sales rate was above the consensus forecast.  I'll have more later. 

by Calculated Risk on 3/20/2025 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending March 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 220,000 to 221,000. The 4-week moving average was 227,000, an increase of 750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 226,000 to 226,250.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 227,000.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were close to the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 3/19/2025 07:43:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 224 initial claims up from 220 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for March. The consensus is for a reading of 12.0, down from 18.0.

• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for February from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 3.92 million SAAR, down from 4.08 million. Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.21 million SAAR for January.

by Calculated Risk on 3/19/2025 04:26:00 PM

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12-month average.

Click on graph for larger image.

On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic increased 0.4% in February compared to the rolling 12 months ending in December.   Outbound traffic decreased 0.8% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.

The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday and then decline sharply and bottom in the Winter depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year.  

Imports were up 6% YoY in February and exports were down 10% YoY.    

This was a very strong July through January period for imports - up about 27% YoY - as importers rushed to beat the tariffs.  That has started to slow.

by Calculated Risk on 3/19/2025 03:13:00 PM

Statement here.

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.

Here are the projections.  

In December, the FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target level for the federal funds rate was around 3.875% at the end of 2025 (3.6%-4.1%) and the long run range was 2.8% to 3.6%.  The FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target range is now at 4.0% at the end of 2025 (3.9%-4.4%) and the long run range is 2.6% to 3.6%.  

It appears growth slower than expected in Q1 2025, and 2025 GDP growth was revised down.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027
Mar 2025	1.5 to 1.9	1.6 to 1.9	1.6 to 2.0
Dec 2024	1.8 to 2.2	1.9 to 2.1	1.8 to 2.0

¹ Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 4.1% in February.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027
Mar 2025	4.3 to 4.4	4.2 to 4.5	4.1 to 4.4
Dec 2024	4.2 to 4.5	4.1 to 4.4	4.0 to 4.4

² Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of January 2025, PCE inflation increased 2.5 percent year-over-year (YoY).  The projections for Q4 2025 PCE inflation were revised up.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027
Mar 2025	2.6 to 2.9	2.1 to 2.3	2.0 to 2.1
Dec 2024	2.3 to 2.6	2.0-2.2	2.0

PCE core inflation increased 2.6 percent YoY in January and is expected to be up 2.7 percent YoY in February.  The projections for core PCE inflation Q4 2025 were revised up.

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027
Mar 2025	2.7 to 3.0	2.1 to 2.4	2.0 to 2.1
Dec 2024	2.5 to 2.7	2.0-2.3	2.0

by Calculated Risk on 3/19/2025 02:00:00 PM

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.

FOMC Statement:

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion. The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; Alberto G. Musalem; and Jeffrey R. Schmid. Voting against this action was Christopher J. Waller, who supported no change for the federal funds target range but preferred to continue the current pace of decline in securities holdings.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 3/19/2025 12:58:00 PM

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.

From the AIA: ABI February 2025: Billings remain soft at architecture firms as interest in new projects wanes

The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score was 45.5 for the month, indicating that a majority of firms are still experiencing declining firm billings. Billings were flat early in the fourth quarter of 2024 but have softened significantly since then. February also marked the first month since the height of the pandemic in 2020 that inquiries into new projects at firms have declined. Inquiries can be as formal as an RFP or RFQ from a potential client, or as informal as a discussion about a potential project, and rarely decline, even during periods of economic softness. The decline this month likely reflects the ongoing uncertainty about the economy at this time. In addition, the value of new signed design contracts decreased at firms for the twelfth consecutive month in February, as clients also remain hesitant to commit to new projects at this time.

Billings remained soft in all regions of the country in February as well. While firms located in the West reported modest growth throughout the fourth quarter of 2024, business conditions there have softened somewhat since then. Billings remained weakest at firms located in the Northeast, with more moderate declines in billings reported at firms located in the Midwest and South. Business conditions were also weak across firms of all specializations this month, remaining softest at firms with a multifamily residential specialization for the second consecutive month.
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The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The score is derived from a monthly survey of architecture firms that measures the change in the number of services provided to clients.
emphasis added

• Northeast (41.3); Midwest (45.2); South (47.6); West (48.1)

• Sector index breakdown: commercial/industrial (46.9); institutional (46.4); multifamily residential (46.1)

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 45.5 in February, down from 45.6 in January.  Anything below 50 indicates a decrease in demand for architects' services.

This index has indicated contraction for 27 of the last 29 months.

Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment in 2025.

Multi-family billings remained negative has been negative for the last 31 months.  This suggests we will see further weakness in multi-family starts.

by Calculated Risk on 3/19/2025 09:23:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Up 2.6% YoY in February; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets

A brief excerpt:

Here are a few more local markets prior to the NAR release tomorrow.

The NAR is scheduled to release February Existing Home sales on Thursday, March 20th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.92 million SAAR, down from 4.08 million in January. Last year, the NAR reported sales in February 2024 at 4.31 million SAAR.

Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.21 million SAAR for January. The consensus appears to be too low - take the over!!!
...
From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): California housing market rebounds in February with highest home sales in more than two years, C.A.R. reports

February’s sales pace surged 11.6 percent from the 254,110 homes sold in January and was up 2.6 percent from a year ago, when a revised 276,280 homes were sold on an annualized basis. The February sales level was the highest since October 2022. Although home sales have rebounded strongly, they have remained below the 300,000 mark since September 2022.

...
Several local markets - like Illinois, Miami, New Jersey and New York - will report after the NAR release.

There is much more in the article.