by Calculated Risk on 3/19/2025 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 6.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 14, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 6.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 13 percent from the previous week and was 70 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 0.1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates increased for the first time in nine weeks, with the 30-year fixed rate rising to 6.72 percent. This increase in rates led to a decrease in refinance volume. However, purchase application volume inched up to its highest level in six weeks, led by a 3 percent increase in FHA purchase applications,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “Overall, purchase application volume is up 6 percent compared to last year at this time. Growing inventories of homes on the market and steadier mortgage rates are supporting homebuying activity thus far this spring.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.67 percent from 6.73 percent, with points increasing to 0.63 from 0.60 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 6% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is up about 23% from the lows in late October 2023 and is only 2% above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index declined after increasing sharply the previous two weeks and remains very low.

by Calculated Risk on 3/18/2025 07:38:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for February (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

• At 2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to policy is expected at this meeting.

• At 2:00 PM: FOMC Projections. This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with updated economic projections.

• At 2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

by Calculated Risk on 3/18/2025 02:58:00 PM

From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: January 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics

Las Vegas started the year with January visitation of approx. 3.34M visitors, down 1.1% from last January.

Las Vegas convention attendance reached roughly 629k in January, up 12.8% YoY, supported in part by strong attendance at recurring larger tradeshows including CES and World of Concrete, plus the calendar impact of World Market Center's Winter show (38k attendees) and Total Product Expo (8k attendees) falling fully in January this year vs. last year when its impact straddled Jan and Feb.

On a room base with roughly 6k fewer rooms than last year, occupancy reached 81.9%, up 3.0 pts with Weekend occupancy of 85.6% (up 2.0 pts) and Midweek occupancy of 80.2% (up 3.2 pts.) ADR for the month reached $195 (+2.2% YoY) with RevPAR of $160 (+6.0% YoY).
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (Black), 2020 (dark blue), 2021 (light blue), 2022 (light orange), 2023 (orange), 2024 (dark orange) and 2025 (red).

Visitor traffic was down 1.1% compared to last January.  Visitor traffic was down 2.0% compared to January 2019.

The second graph shows convention traffic.

Convention traffic was up 12.8% compared to January 2024, and down 8.0% compared to January 2019.  

by Calculated Risk on 3/18/2025 09:38:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.501 million Annual Rate in February

A brief excerpt:

Total housing starts in February were above expectations; however, starts in December and January were revised down slightly, combined.

The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2024 (blue) and 2025 (red).

Total starts were down 2.9% in February compared to February 2024. Starts bounced back in the Northeast region after being down sharply year-over-year in January (likely weather related).

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 3/18/2025 09:15:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production (IP) increased 0.7 percent in February after moving up 0.3 percent in January. Manufacturing output rose 0.9 percent, boosted by a jump of 8.5 percent in the index for motor vehicles and parts. The output of manufacturing excluding motor vehicles and parts increased 0.4 percent. The index for mining gained 2.8 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 2.5 percent. At 104.2 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in February was 1.4 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization stepped up to 78.2 percent, a rate that is 1.4 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and close to the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Capacity utilization at 78.2% is 1.4% below the average from 1972 to 2023.  This was above consensus expectations.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production increased to 104.2. This is above the pre-pandemic level.

Industrial production was above consensus expectations.

by Calculated Risk on 3/18/2025 08:30:00 AM

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,501,000. This is 11.2 percent above the revised January estimate of 1,350,000, but is 2.9 percent below the February 2024 rate of 1,546,000. Single-family housing starts in February were at a rate of 1,108,000; this is 11.4 percent above the revised January figure of 995,000. The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 370,000.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,456,000. This is 1.2 percent below the revised January rate of 1,473,000 and is 6.8 percent below the February 2024 rate of 1,563,000. Single-family authorizations in February were at a rate of 992,000; this is 0.2 percent below the revised January figure of 994,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 404,000 in February.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000.

Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) increased month-over-month in February.   Multi-family starts were down 4.6% year-over-year.

Single-family starts (red) increased in February and were down 2.3% year-over-year.

The second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.

This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery - and the recent collapse and recovery in single-family starts.

Total housing starts in February were above expectations; however, starts in December and January were revised down slightly, combined.

I'll have more later …

by Calculated Risk on 3/17/2025 08:55:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for February. The consensus is for 1.383 million SAAR, up from 1.366 million SAAR.

• At 9:15 AM, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for February. The consensus is a 0.3% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to be unchanged at 77.8%.

by Calculated Risk on 3/17/2025 07:01:00 PM

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.38% in February

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 2 basis points from 0.40% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.38% as of February 28, 2025. According to MBA’s estimate, 190,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans. Mortgage servicers have provided approximately 8.6 million forbearances since March 2020.

The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 2 basis points to 0.15% in February 2025. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased by 4 basis points to 0.84%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) decreased 3 basis points to 0.37%.

“Despite February’s monthly decline of loans in forbearance, the estimated number of forbearances and loan workouts increased compared to one year ago,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “The year-over-year gain may be attributed to increasing escrow payments for taxes and insurance, inflationary pressures, natural disasters, aging servicing portfolios, and a softening in the labor market. At the same time, the performance of loan workouts and overall servicing portfolios weakened compared to one year ago."
...
By reason, 73.0% of borrowers are in forbearance for reasons such as a temporary hardship caused by job loss, death, divorce, or disability. Another 24.2% are in forbearance because of a natural disaster. The remaining 2.8% of borrowers are still in forbearance because of COVID-19.
emphasis added

At the end of February, there were about 190,000 homeowners in forbearance plans.

by Calculated Risk on 3/17/2025 03:30:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in February; Recent Rent Trends at Two Large Publicly Traded Companies in the Single-Family Rental Business

A brief excerpt:

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.21 million in February, up 2.9% from January’s preliminary pace but down 2.6% from last February’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a larger YOY % decline, reflecting this February’s lower business day count relative to last February’s.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 3/17/2025 12:41:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in February

A brief excerpt:

The NAR is scheduled to release February Existing Home sales on Thursday, March 20th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.92 million SAAR, down from 4.08 million in January. Last year, the NAR reported sales in February 2024 at 4.31 million SAAR.

NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to February 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).

This is the third look at local markets in February. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in February were mostly for contracts signed in December and January when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.72% and 6.96%, respectively (Freddie Mac PMMS). This was an increase from the average rate for homes that closed in January, and up slightly from the average rate of 6.7% in December 2023 and January 2024.
...
Here is a look at months-of-supply using NSA sales. Since this is NSA data, it is likely months-of-supply will increase into the Summer.

Months in red will likely see 6+ months of supply this summer and might see price pressures.
...
More local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.