by Calculated Risk on 3/10/2025 07:53:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Recover Some of Last Week's Losses

Bonds are once again paying attention to weakness in stocks--it just happened to take a bigger drop in stocks that we saw last week. Despite the improvement in rates, we would still expect some resistance to the idea of rapid improvement unless the economic data begins to sound the same warnings as equities markets.

On that note, the most relevant econ data on the near-term horizon is Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI), the first of the broad measures of inflation in the U.S. and one of the biggest potential sources of volatility for rates. [30 year fixed 6.72%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 6:00 AM ET, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for February.

• At 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for January from the BLS.

by Calculated Risk on 3/10/2025 01:41:00 PM

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission.

Uncertainty shapes economic cycles — fueling booms, triggering busts, and driving debates about what comes next. Uncertainty abounds in the railroad industry too, where evolving demand, market conditions, and economic policies constantly create both challenges and opportunities.
...
For now, both rail traffic and the broader economy reflect a mix of strengths and weaknesses, with some sectors proving resilient while others struggle in the face of shifting conditions.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the year-over-year change for carloads, carloads ex-coal, and intermodal.

In February, intermodal performance was again strong, with volumes rising 6.4% (66,340 units) year over-year. Originations averaged 276,654 units per week, the most ever for a February. This strength reflects solid consumer spending and, in part, efforts by some importers to expedite shipments in anticipation of tariffs.
...
U.S. railroads originated 843,618 carloads in February, down 4.5% from last year. Carloads rose fractionally in January, their first increase in five months. In February, severe floods in the Northeast and frigid temperatures in the upper Midwest and much of the rest of the country constrained rail operations and the ability of rail customers to load and unload freight. Without these weather issues, rail volumes likely would have been higher.

by Calculated Risk on 3/10/2025 10:36:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025

A brief excerpt:

This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

Inventory, inventory, inventory! Inventory usually tells the tale. Currently I’m watching months-of-supply closely.
...
Since both inventory and sales have fallen significantly, a key for house prices is to watch months-of-supply. The following graph shows months-of-supply since 2017. The following graph shows months-of-supply since 2017. Note that months-of-supply is higher than 6 of the last 8 years, and at the same level as in 2017.

Months-of-supply was at 3.5 months in January 2025, up from 3.0 months in January 2024, and down from 3.8 months in January 2019. Note that December and January usually have the lowest months-of-supply.

This suggests that year-over-year price growth will continue to slow. Inventory would probably have to increase to 5 1/2 to 6 months of supply to see national price declines again.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 3/10/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.5% week-over-week.

Inventory is now up 2.9% from the seasonal bottom eight weeks ago in January and should start increasing significantly in the Spring.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 28.3% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 28.3%), and down 21.4% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 21.8%). 

The gap to more normal inventory levels has closed significantly!

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of March 7th, inventory was at 642 thousand (7-day average), compared to 639 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube

by Calculated Risk on 3/09/2025 07:12:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of March 9, 2025

Monday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 48 and DOW futures are down 294 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $67.04 per barrel and Brent at $70.36 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $79, and Brent was at $84 - so WTI oil prices are down about 11% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.05 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.40 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.35 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 3/09/2025 08:12:00 AM

The BLS reported 151 thousand non-farm jobs were added in February.   During the Winter months, I like to look at the weather impact on the report.

The BLS reported 404 thousand people were employed in non-agriculture industries, with a job, but not at work due to bad weather. The average for February over the previous 10 years was 300 thousand (median 222 thousand), so more people than normal were impacted by bad weather.

The BLS also reported 1.309 million people that are usually full-time employees were working part time in February due to bad weather.  The average for February over the previous 10 years was 932 thousand (the median was 650 thousand).  This series suggests weather negatively impacted employment more than usual.  

The San Francisco Fed estimates Weather-Adjusted Change in Total Nonfarm Employment (monthly change, seasonally adjusted). They use local area weather to estimate the impact on employment. For February, the San Francisco Fed estimated that weather reduced employment by 2 to 12 thousand jobs.

It appears weather adjusted job gains were around 160 thousand in February (seasonally adjusted)

by Calculated Risk on 3/08/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• ICE Mortgage Monitor: Property Insurance Costs Rose at a Record Rate in 2024

• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in January

• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in February

• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January and a Look Ahead to February Sales

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 3/08/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key report this week is February CPI.

----- Monday, March 10th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, March 11th -----
6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for February.

10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for January from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (black line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings decreased in December to 7.60 million from 8.12 million in November.

----- Wednesday, March 12th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for February from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% Year-over-year (YoY), and core CPI to be up 3.2% YoY.

----- Thursday, March 13th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 221 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for February from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI.

12:00 PM: Q4 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.

----- Friday, March 14th -----
10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for March).

by Calculated Risk on 3/07/2025 07:16:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Deaths per Week	735	878	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts. 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths. ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported since Jan 2023.

Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting in June 2023 (low of 314 deaths), I'm continuing to post now that deaths are above the goal again - and I'll continue to post until weekly deaths are once again below the goal.

Weekly deaths are now decreasing following the winter pickup.

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of March 6th:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.  This has moving down recently.

Nationally COVID in wastewater is "Low", down from "High" three weeks ago, according to the CDC.   

by Calculated Risk on 3/07/2025 05:13:00 PM

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decreased in February

Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in February compared to January. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) decreased to 204.1, which reflects a 0.1% increase from a year ago. The seasonal adjustment to the index drove the monthly move for the index, as non-seasonally adjusted values rose for the month. The non-adjusted price in February increased by 1.4% compared to January, moving the unadjusted average price up 0.8% year over year.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.

The Manheim index suggests used car prices decreased in February (seasonally adjusted) and were up 0.1% YoY.