by Calculated Risk on 2/06/2025 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending February 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 207,000 to 208,000. The 4-week moving average was 216,750, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 212,500 to 212,750.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 216,750.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were above the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 2/05/2025 07:32:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a increase to 214 thousand from 207 thousand last week.

by Calculated Risk on 2/05/2025 03:31:00 PM

An update: The first graph below shows the mix of sales since 1976 (Blue is cars, Red is light trucks and SUVs) through January 2025.


Click on graph for larger image.

The mix has changed significantly. Back in 1976, most light vehicles were passenger cars - however passenger car sales have trended down over time.

Note that the big dips in sales are related to economic recessions (early '80s, early '90s, the Great Recession of 2007 through mid-2009 and the pandemic in 2020).

The second graph shows the percent of light vehicle sales between passenger cars and trucks / SUVs.

Over time the mix has changed toward more and more light trucks and SUVs.  Only when oil prices are high, does the trend slow or reverse.

Currently a record 82% of light vehicle sales are light trucks or SUVs.

by Calculated Risk on 2/05/2025 11:37:00 AM

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

Brief excerpt:

Another monthly update on rents.

Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. Slower household formation and increased supply (more multi-family completions) has kept asking rents under pressure. ...

Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.5% Year-over-year ...

On the supply side of the rental market, our national vacancy index ticked up to 6.9 percent in January, the highest reading in the history of that monthly data series, which goes back to the start of 2017.

Realtor.com: 17th Consecutive Month with Year-over-year Decline in Rents

In December 2024, the US median asking rent continued to decline month-over-month for the seventeenth consecutive month. The national median rent was $1,695 in December, down $8 (0.5%) from November 2024 and $18 (1.1%) from December 2023 across the 50 largest metropolitan areas in the country.

This is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 2/05/2025 10:00:00 AM

(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 52.8%, down from 54.0% last month. The employment index increased to 52.3%, from 51.3%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction.

From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 52.8% January 2025 Services ISM® Report On Business®

Economic activity in the services sector expanded for the seventh consecutive month in January, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®. The Services PMI® registered 52.8 percent, indicating expansion for the 53rd time in 56 months since recovery from the coronavirus pandemic-induced recession began in June 2020.

The report was issued today by Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In January, the Services PMI® registered 52.8 percent, 1.2 percentage points lower than the seasonally adjusted December figure of 54 percent. The Business Activity Index registered 54.5 percent in January, 3.5 percentage points lower than the seasonally adjusted 58 percent recorded in December. After seasonal adjustments, this is the 56th consecutive month of expansion for the index. The New Orders Index recorded a reading of 51.3 percent in January, 3.1 percentage points lower than the seasonally adjusted December figure of 54.4 percent. The Employment Index remained in expansion territory for the fourth consecutive month; the reading of 52.3 percent is a 1-percentage point increase compared to the seasonally adjusted 51.3 percent recorded in December.
emphasis added

This was below consensus expectations.

by Calculated Risk on 2/05/2025 08:30:00 AM

The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported:

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $98.4 billion in December, up $19.5 billion from $78.9 billion in November, revised.

December exports were $266.5 billion, $7.1 billion less than November exports. December imports were $364.9 billion, $12.4 billion more than November imports.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Exports and imports increased in November.

Exports are up 2.5% year-over-year; imports are up 12.4% year-over-year.

Both imports and exports have generally increased recently.  

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum.

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Note that net, exports of petroleum products are positive and have been increasing.

The trade deficit with China increased to $25.0 billion from $22.0 billion a year ago.  It is likely some importers were trying to beat potential tariffs.

by Calculated Risk on 2/05/2025 08:15:00 AM

From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 183,000 Jobs in January; Annual Pay was Up 4.7%

“We had a strong start to 2025 but it masked a dichotomy in the labor market,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Consumer-facing industries drove hiring, while job growth was weaker in business services and production.”
emphasis added

This was above the consensus forecast of 150,000. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 170,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in January.

by Calculated Risk on 2/05/2025 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 2.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 31, 2025. Last week’s results include an adjustment for the Martin Luther King holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 19 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 12 percent from the previous week and was 17 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 15 percent compared with the previous week and was 0.2 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates moved lower last week, consistent with lower Treasury yields following the FOMC meeting and a volatile week for stock market. The 30-year fixed rate declined to its lowest level in six weeks at 6.97 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Mortgage applications responded to these lower rates and were up for the week overall, driven by a 12 percent increase in refinance applications, which had their strongest week since December 2024.”

Added Kan, “Purchase activity had a tougher week, with declines across all loan types. The average loan size for a purchase loan has increased since the start of the year and continued that trend last week with weaker government purchase activity, which reached $447,300, the highest level since October 2024.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 6.97 percent from 7.02 percent, with points increasing to 0.64 from 0.63 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 0.2% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is up about 25% from the lows in late October 2023 and is now 4% above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index remains very low.

by Calculated Risk on 2/04/2025 07:58:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for January. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 150,000 payroll jobs added in January, up from 122,000 added in December.

• At 8:30 AM, Trade Balance report for December from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $87.0 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $78.2 billion in November.

• At 10:00 AM, ISM Services Index for January.

by Calculated Risk on 2/04/2025 04:40:00 PM

From the U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Rise 14.2 Percent

Total bankruptcy filings rose 14.2 percent, with increases in both business and non-business bankruptcies, in the twelve-month period ending Dec. 31, 2024. This continues an ongoing rebound in filings after more than a decade of sharply dropping totals.

According to statistics released by the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts, annual bankruptcy filings totaled 517,308 in the year ending December 2024, compared with 452,990 cases in the previous year.

Business filings rose 22.1 percent, from 18,926 to 23,107, in the year ending Dec. 31, 2024. Non-business bankruptcy filings rose 13.9 percent to 494,201, compared with 434,064 in December 2023.

Bankruptcy totals for the previous 12 months are reported four times annually.

For more than a decade, total filings fell steadily, from a high of nearly 1.6 million in September 2010 to a low of 380,634 in June 2022. Total filings have increased each quarter since then, but they remain far lower than historical highs.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the business and non-business bankruptcy filings by calendar year since 1997.

The sharp decline in 2006 was due to the so-called "Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005".

2024 was the 4th lowest year for bankruptcy filings, and 33% below the pre-pandemic level in 2019.