by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2024 01:55:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in October; Up 3.7% Year-over-year

A brief excerpt:

Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.45% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in October. On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 3.7% in October, down from up 3.8% YoY in September.  The YoY increase peaked at 19.0% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in May 2023. ...

For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), here are the 35 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city. However, 18 of the 35 cities with the largest declines are in Florida!

And 5 of the 35 cities on the list are in Texas.

by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2024 10:45:00 AM

From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased:

Construction spending during October 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,174.0 billion, 0.4 percent above the revised September estimate of $2,164.7 billion. The October figure is 5.0 percent above the October 2023 estimate of $2,071.1 billion.
emphasis added

Private spending increased and public spending decreased:

Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,676.4 billion, 0.7 percent above the revised September estimate of $1,664.7 billion. ...

In October, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $497.6 billion, 0.5 percent below the revised September estimate of $500.0 billion.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.

Residential (red) spending is 4.7% below the peak in 2022.

Non-residential (blue) spending is 0.5% below the peak in June 2024.

Public construction spending is 0.5% below the peak in September 2024.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.

On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 6.4%. Non-residential spending is up 3.5% year-over-year. Public spending is up 4.5% year-over-year.

This was above consensus expectations and spending for the previous two months was revised up.

by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2024 10:00:00 AM

(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 48.4% in November, up from 46.5% in October. The employment index was at 48.1%, up from 44.4% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 50.4%, up from 47.1%.

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 48.4% November 2024 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in November for the eighth consecutive month and the 24th time in the last 25 months, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.4 percent in November, 1.9 percentage points higher compared to the 46.5 percent recorded in October. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 55th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index returned to expansion, albeit weakly, after seven months of contraction, registering 50.4 percent, 3.3 percentage points higher than the 47.1 percent recorded in October. The November reading of the Production Index (46.8 percent) is 0.6 percentage point higher than October’s figure of 46.2 percent. The Prices Index continued in expansion (or ‘increasing’) territory, registering 50.3 percent, down 4.5 percentage points compared to the reading of 54.8 percent in October. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 41.8 percent, down 0.5 percentage point compared to the 42.3 percent recorded in October. The Employment Index registered 48.1 percent, up 3.7 percentage points from October’s figure of 44.4 percent.
emphasis added

This suggests manufacturing contracted in November.  This was above the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2024 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.7% week-over-week.  Inventory is now 4.4% below the peak for the year (6 weeks ago).

Inventory will now decline seasonally until early next year.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 27.1% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 27.1%), and down 17.2% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 17.5%). 

Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is closing!

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of Nov 29th, inventory was at 707 thousand (7-day average), compared to 719 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2024 01:18:00 AM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of December 1, 2024

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for November.  The consensus is for 47.5%, up from 46.5%.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for October.  The consensus is for 0.2% increase in spending.

• All day, Light vehicle sales for November.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 9 and DOW futures are down 45 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $68.43 per barrel and Brent at $72.31 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $74, and Brent was at $79 - so WTI oil prices are down about 10% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.00 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.25 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.25 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 11/30/2024 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in September

• New Home Sales Decrease Sharply to 610,000 Annual Rate in October

• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in October

• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in October and a Look Ahead to November Sales

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 11/30/2024 08:11:00 AM

The key report this week is the November employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the October Trade Deficit, the November ISM manufacturing index and November vehicle sales.

----- Monday, December 2nd -----
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for November.  The consensus is for 47.5%, up from 46.5%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for October.  The consensus is for 0.2% increase in spending.

All day: Light vehicle sales for November.

The consensus is for 16.0 million SAAR in November, unchanged from the BEA estimate of 16.04 million SAAR in October (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. 

The dashed line is the current sales rate.

----- Tuesday, December 3rd -----
10:00 AM: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for October from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (black line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings decreased in September to 7.44 million from 7.86 million in August.

The number of job openings (black) were down 20% year-over-year. Quits were down 15% year-over-year.

----- Wednesday, December 4th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for November. This report is for private payrolls only (no government).  The consensus is for 166,000 jobs added, down from 233,000 in October.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for November.  The consensus is for 55.5, down from 56.0.

1:45 PM: Discussion, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Moderated Discussion, At the New York Times DealBook Summit, New York, N.Y.

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, December 5th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 220 thousand initial claims, up from 213 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for October from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $78.8 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $84.4 billion in September.

----- Friday, December 6th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for November.   The consensus is for 183,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%.

There were 12,000 jobs added in October, and the unemployment rate was at 4.1%.

This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for December).

by Calculated Risk on 11/29/2024 12:21:00 PM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 23 November

Due to the Thanksgiving calendar shift, the U.S. hotel industry reported higher year-over-year performance comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 23 November. ...

17-23 November 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):

• Occupancy: 59.7% (+20.7%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$150.49 (+8.6%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$89.80 (+31.1%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue) - and will likely finish mostly unchanged year-over-year.

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate has peaked for the fall business travel season and will decline seasonally through the holidays.  Note: Occupancy will be down sharply next week due to the timing of Thanksgiving (the reverse of this week).

Q4 GDP Tracking: Mid 2% Range

by Calculated Risk on 11/29/2024 09:11:00 AM

From Goldman:

Following [Wednesday]’s data, we have left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.0%. [Nov 27th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 2.7 percent on November 27, up from 2.6 percent on November 19. After this morning's personal income and outlays release from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 2.8 percent to 3.0 percent. [Nov 27th estimate]

Thursday, November 28, 2024

Five Economic Reasons to be Thankful

by Calculated Risk on 11/28/2024 08:47:00 AM

Here are five economic reasons to be thankful this Thanksgiving. (Hat Tip to Neil Irwin who started doing this years ago)

1) The Unemployment Rate is at 4.1%

The unemployment rate was at 4.1% in October. 

The unemployment rate is down from 14.7% in April 2020 (the highest rate since the Great Depression).

The unemployment rate is up from 3.4% in April 2023 - and that matched the lowest unemployment rate since 1969!

This is a historically low unemployment rate.

2) Low unemployment claims.

This graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Weekly claims were at 213,000 last week.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average.

Even though weekly claims have bounced around a little recently, the 4-week average is close to the lowest level in 50 years.

3) Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP has Fallen Significantly

This graph shows household mortgage debt as a percent of GDP.  

Note this graph is through Q2 2024 was impacted by the sharp decline in Q2 2020 GDP.

Mortgage debt is up $2.34 trillion from the peak during the housing bubble, but, as a percent of GDP is at 45.9% - down from Q1 - and down from a peak of 73.3% of GDP during the housing bust.

4) Mortgage Delinquency Rate Near the Lowest Level since at least 1979

This graph, based on data from the MBA through Q3 2024, shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due.  

Although mortgage delinquencies are up a little from Q2 2023 - the lowest level since the MBA survey started in 1979 - delinquencies are still historically very low.

Note: The sharp increase in 2020 in the 90-day bucket was due to loans in forbearance (included as delinquent but not reported to the credit bureaus).

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process are close to the record low.

5) Household Debt burdens at Low Levels (ex-pandemic)

This graph, based on data from the Federal Reserve, shows the Household Debt Service Ratio (DSR), and the DSR for mortgages (blue) and consumer debt (yellow).

The Household debt service ratio was at 11.5% in Q2 2024, slightly below the pre-pandemic level of 11.6%.

The DSR for mortgages (blue) has increased recently but is close to the pre-pandemic level.

This data suggests aggregate household cash flow is in a solid position.

Happy Thanksgiving to All!