by Calculated Risk on 11/26/2024 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for September ("September" is a 3-month average of July, August and September closing prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 3.9% Annual Gain in September 2024

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.9% annual return for September, down from a 4.3% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 5.2%, down from a 6.0% annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 4.6%, dropping from a 5.2% increase in the previous month. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 7.5% increase in September, followed by Cleveland and Chicago with annual increases of 7.1% and 6.9%, respectively. Denver posted the smallest year-over-year growth with 0.2%.
...
The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National Index, 20-City Composite, and 10-City Composite upward trends continued to reverse in September, with a -0.1% drop for the national index, and the 20-City and 10-City Composites saw -0.3% and -0.4% returns for this month, respectively.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.3%, while the 20-City and 10-City Composite reported monthly rises of 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively.

“Home price growth stalled in the third quarter, after a steady start to 2024,” says Brian D. Luke, CFA, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets. “The slight downtick could be attributed to technical factors as the seasonally adjusted figures boasted a 16th consecutive all-time high.

“We continue to see above-trend price growth in the Northeast and Midwest, growing 5.7% and 5.4%, respectively, led by New York, Cleveland, and Chicago,” Luke continued. “The Big Apple has taken the top spot for five consecutive months, pushing the region ahead of all others since August 2023. The South region reported its slowest growth in over a year, rising 2.8%, barely above current inflation levels.”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index was up 0.1% in September (SA).  The Composite 20 index was up 0.2% (SA) in September.

The National index was up 0.3% (SA) in September.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA was up 5.2% year-over-year.  The Composite 20 SA was up 4.6% year-over-year.

The National index SA was up 3.9% year-over-year.

Annual price changes were close to expectations.  I'll have more later.

by Calculated Risk on 11/25/2024 07:16:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Near Lowest Levels in a Month

Last Monday, mortgage rates were near the highest levels in more than 3 months. A week later, and the average lender is right in line with the lowest levels in more than a month.
...
The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate fell back below 7% with today's move, but not by much. This means many borrowers will still be seeing rates in the low 7s, even for top tier scenarios. [30 year fixed 6.93%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 9:00 AM ET, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for September. The National index was up 4.2% YoY in August and is expected to increase about the same in September.

• Also at 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for September. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. The Conforming loan limits for next year will also be announced.

• At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for October from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 730 thousand SAAR, down from 738 thousand in September.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for November.

• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Minutes, Minutes Meeting of November 6-7, 2024

by Calculated Risk on 11/25/2024 04:02:00 PM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.4% week-over-week.  Inventory is now 2.8% below the peak for the year (5 weeks ago).

Inventory will now decline seasonally until early next year.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 27.1% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 26.7%), and down 17.5% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 18.5%). 

Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is about two-thirds closed.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of Nov 22nd, inventory was at 719 thousand (7-day average), compared to 722 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

by Calculated Risk on 11/25/2024 01:51:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in October and a Look Ahead to November Sales

A brief excerpt:

After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in October.

The big story for October was that existing home sales increased year-over-year (YoY) for the first time since July 2021. However, sales in October, at 3.96 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR) were still historically low. This YoY increase was a combination of weak sales in October 2023 and lower mortgage rates in August and September when contracts were signed (Existing home sales are reported at closing). The mortgage rates in August, September and October were the lowest mortgage rates in 2 years!

Also, regionally, inventory continues to increase sharply in Florida and Texas.
...
Here is a look at months-of-supply using NSA sales. Note the regional differences, especially in Florida and Texas (although October statistics in Florida were impacted by Hurricane Milton). This pickup in inventory is impacting prices in Florida.
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Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 11/25/2024 09:50:00 AM

An interesting paper from researchers at the NY Fed: The Financial Stability Implications of Digital Assets Here is the overview:

• This article considers the potential vulnerabilities associated with the digital asset ecosystem, adapting the Federal Reserve’s framework for assessing financial stability risks in the traditional financial system.

• In particular, it examines the potential channels through which stress in crypto­-asset markets could be transmitted to the traditional financial system and ultimately disrupt the real economy.

• The authors argue that, to date, the contribution of digital assets to systemic risk has been limited, given that the digital ecosystem is relatively small and not a major provider of financing and payment services to the real economy.

• However, the observed fragility in the digital asset space is associated with vulnerabilities that could destabilize the broader financial system if the digital ecosystem becomes more systemic
emphasis added

Many years ago, after the financial crisis, I warned "Each new generation of ... wizards figures out a new way to turn lead into gold, and to become wealthy while damaging the financial system. Some of these wizards are probably perfecting their financial alchemy right now."  

by Calculated Risk on 11/24/2024 08:01:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of November 24, 2024

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October. This is a composite index of other data.

• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 areup 25 and DOW futures are up 232 (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $71.24 per barrel and Brent at $75.17 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $75, and Brent was at $80 - so WTI oil prices are down about 5% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.03 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.24 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.21 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 11/24/2024 08:21:00 AM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 16 November

Due to the Veteran’s Day calendar shift, the U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year performance comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 16 November. ...

10-16 November 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):

• Occupancy: 63.3% (+1.5%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$154.96 (-1.1%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$98.11 (+0.4%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue) - and will likely finish mostly unchanged year-over-year.

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate has peaked for the fall business travel season and will decline seasonally through the holidays.

by Calculated Risk on 11/23/2024 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 3.96 million SAAR in October

• Housing Starts Decreased to 1.311 million Annual Rate in October

• Preliminary 2025 Housing Forecasts

• California Home Sales Up 9.5% SA YoY in October

• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 11/23/2024 08:11:00 AM

The key reports this week include the 2nd estimate of Q3 GDP and October New Home Sales.

Other key indicators include the September Case-Shiller and FHFA house price indexes, and October Personal Income & Outlays (and PCE).

----- Monday, November 25th -----
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October. This is a composite index of other data.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November.

----- Tuesday, November 26th -----
9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for September.

This graph shows graph shows the Year over year change in the seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The National index was up 4.2% YoY in August and is expected to increase about the same in September.

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for September. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. The Conforming loan limits for next year will also be announced.

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for October from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

The consensus is for 730 thousand SAAR, down from 738 thousand in September.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for November.

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Minutes Meeting of November 6-7, 2024

----- Wednesday, November 27th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 220 thousand initial claims, up from 213 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary), 3rd Quarter 2024. The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.8% annualized in Q3, unchanged from the advance estimate of 2.8% in Q3.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for October from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in durable goods orders.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for November.

10:00 AM: Personal Income and Outlays, October 2024. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%.  PCE prices are expected to be up 2.1% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.7% YoY.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for October.

----- Thursday, November 28th -----
All US markets will be closed in observance of the Thanksgiving Day Holiday.

----- Friday, November 29th -----
The NYSE and the NASDAQ will close early at 1:00 PM ET.

by Calculated Risk on 11/22/2024 07:11:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Deaths per Week	597	703	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts, 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.

Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting, I'm continuing to post now that deaths are above the goal again.  

Weekly deaths are now declining and will likely continue to decline based on wastewater sampling but are still almost double the low of 302 in early June.

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of November 21st:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.

COVID in wastewater is fairly low - only about 18% higher than the lows of last May - suggesting weekly deaths will continue to decline.