by Calculated Risk on 10/21/2021 01:56:00 PM

Notes: The expansion to the Panama Canal was completed in 2016 (As I noted a few years ago), and some of the traffic that used the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is probably going through the canal. This might be impacting TEUs on the West Coast.

Also, incoming port traffic is backed up significantly in the LA area with numerous ships at anchor waiting to unload.

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average.

Click on graph for larger image.

On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic was down 0.4% in September compared to the rolling 12 months ending in August.   Outbound traffic was down 2.0% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.

The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year.

2021 started off incredibly strong for imports - and with the backlog of ships, will probably continue strong.

Imports were down 4% YoY in September (recovered last year following the early months of the pandemic), and exports were down 23% YoY.

by Calculated Risk on 10/21/2021 10:57:00 AM

Today, in the Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 6.29 million in September

Excerpt:

On prices, the NAR reported:

The median existing-home price for all housing types in September was $352,800, up 13.3% from September 2020 ($311,500), as prices rose in each region.

Median prices are distorted by the mix (repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and FHFA are probably better for measuring prices), but this is the fourth consecutive month with a deceleration in the median price. The NAR reported median prices were up 23.6% YoY in May, 23.4% in June, 17.8% in July, 14.9% in August and 13.3% in September. This deceleration will probably show up in Case-Shiller and the FHFA indexes very soon.
...
The graph shows existing home sales by month for 2020 and 2021.

This was the second month this year with sales down year-over-year. This should continue through the rest of the year, since sales averaged 6.7million SAAR over the last three months of 2020. emphasis added

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by Calculated Risk on 10/21/2021 10:12:00 AM

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Ascend 7.0% in September

Existing-home sales rebounded in September after seeing sales wane the previous month, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Each of the four major U.S. regions witnessed increases on a month-over-month basis. From a year-over-year timeframe, one region held steady while the three others each reported a decline in sales.

Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 7.0% from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.29 million in September. However, sales decreased 2.3% from a year ago (6.44 million in September 2020).
...
Total housing inventory at the end of September amounted to 1.27 million units, down 0.8% from August and down 13.0% from one year ago (1.46 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.4-month supply at the present sales pace, down 7.7% from August and down from 2.7 months in September 2020.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in September (6.29 million SAAR) were up 7.0% from last month, and were 2.3% below the September 2020 sales rate.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.27 million in September from 1.28 million in August.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was down 13.0% year-over-year in September compared to September 2020.

Months of supply was decreased to 2.4 months in September from 2.6 months in August.

This was above the consensus forecast. I'll have more later.

by Calculated Risk on 10/21/2021 08:34:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending October 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 290,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 3,000 from 293,000 to 296,000. The 4-week moving average was 319,750, a decrease of 15,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 750 from 334,250 to 335,000.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 319,750.

The previous week was revised up.

Regular state continued claims decreased to 2,481,000 (SA) from 2,603,000 (SA) the previous week.

Weekly claims were at the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 10/20/2021 09:01:00 PM

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 290 thousand initial claims, down from 293 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for October. The consensus is for a reading of 24.5, down from 30.7.

• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for September from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 6.06 million SAAR, up from 5.88 million in August.

by Calculated Risk on 10/20/2021 05:28:00 PM

Today, in the Newsletter: 'Some prospective buyers took a break'

Existing Home Sales forecast, and adding Boston, Indiana, Rhode Island, and Washington D.C. September Data

Excerpt:

From the Rhode Island Association of Realtors®

“The single-family home market has been incredibly competitive and the properties that are available for sale are put under contract so quickly, that it appears some prospective buyers took a break. Also, the spread of the delta variant affected the market last quarter, keeping some buyers at home and making some prospective sellers think twice about listing their home,” said Leann D’Ettore, President of the Rhode Island Association of Realtors.
emphasis added

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by Calculated Risk on 10/20/2021 03:58:00 PM

The CDC is the source for all data.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.  Total doses administered: 409,438,987, as of a week ago 404,371,247, or 0.72 million doses per day.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	57.1%	56.6%	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	189.5	187.9	≥2321
New Cases per Day3	75,988	87,507	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3	51,698	57,977	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3	1,256	1,297	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

IMPORTANT: For "herd immunity" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID).  

KUDOS to the residents of the 3 states that have achieved 70% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 70.6%, Connecticut and Rhode Island at 70.0% .

KUDOS also to the residents of the 12 states and D.C. that have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: Maine at 69.8%, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Maryland, New York, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Washington, Oregon, Virginia, District of Columbia,  Colorado, and California at 60.4%.

The following 20 states have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: Pennsylvania at 59.6%, Minnesota, Hawaii, Delaware, Florida, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Kentucky, South Dakota, Texas, Arizona, Kansas, Nevada, Alaska, Utah, North Carolina and Ohio at 51.3%.

Next up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are Montana at 49.8%, Indiana at 49.4%, Missouri at 49.1%, Oklahoma at 49.1% and South Carolina at 49.1%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

by Calculated Risk on 10/20/2021 02:03:00 PM

Fed's Beige Book "This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond based on information collected on or before October 8th, 2020. "

Economic activity grew at a modest to moderate rate, according to the majority of Federal Reserve Districts. Several Districts noted, however, that the pace of growth slowed this period, constrained by supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, and uncertainty around the Delta variant of COVID-19. A majority of Districts indicated positive growth in consumer spending; however, auto sales were widely reported as declining due to low inventory levels and rising prices. Travel and tourism activity varied by District with some seeing continued or strengthening leisure travel while others saw declines that coincided with rises in COVID cases and the start of the school year. Manufacturing grew moderately to robustly in most parts of the country, as did trucking and freight. Growth in nonmanufacturing activity ranged from slight to moderate for most Districts. Loan demand was generally reported as flat to modest this period. Residential real estate activity was unchanged or slowed slightly but the market remained healthy, overall. Reports on nonresidential real estate varied across Districts and market segments. Agriculture conditions were mixed and energy markets were little changed, on balance. Outlooks for near-term economic activity remained positive, overall, but some Districts noted increased uncertainty and more cautious optimism than in previous months.
...
Employment increased at a modest to moderate rate in recent weeks, as demand for workers was high, but labor growth was dampened by a low supply of workers. Transportation and technology firms saw particularly low labor supply, while many retail, hospitality, and manufacturing firms cut hours or production because they did not have enough workers. Firms reported high turnover, as workers left for other jobs or retired. Child-care issues and vaccine mandates were widely cited as contributing to the problem, along with COVID-related absences. Many firms offered increased training to expand the candidate pool. In some cases, firms increased automation to help offset labor shortages. The majority of Districts reported robust wage growth. Firms reported increasing starting wages to attract talent and increasing wages for existing workers to retain them. Many also offered signing and retention bonuses, flexible work schedules, or increased vacation time to incentivize workers to remain in their positions.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 10/20/2021 11:22:00 AM

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.

From the AIA: Demand for design services continues to increase

Architecture firms continue to report increasing demand for design services in September, according to a new report today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).

The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for September was 56.6, which is up from August’s score of 55.6. Any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings from the prior month. During September, scoring for both the new project inquiries and design contracts moderated slightly, but remained in positive territory, posting scores of 61.8 and 54.7 respectively.

“The ABI scores over the last eight months continue to be among the highest ever seen in the immediate post-recession periods that have been captured throughout the index’s history,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “However, it’s unlikely that revenue increases at architecture firms can sustain this pace. Given that growth in both new design contracts and project inquiries have moderated in recent months, we expect to see a similar path for the ABI.”
...
• Regional averages: Midwest (57.7); South (57.0); West (56.0); Northeast (51.5)

• Sector index breakdown: mixed practice (58.8); commercial/industrial (58.1); multi-family residential (56.1); institutional (53.5)
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 56.6 in September, up from 55.6 in August. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services.

Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

This index had been below 50 for eleven consecutive months, but has been solidly positive for the last eight months.  

The eleven months of decline represented a significant decrease in design services, and suggests a decline in CRE investment through most of 2021 (This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months), however we might see a pickup in CRE investment in Q4 2021 and in 2022.

by Calculated Risk on 10/20/2021 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 6.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 15, 2021.

... The Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week and was 22 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 12 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“Refinance applications declined for the fourth week as rates increased, bringing the refinance index to its lowest level since July 2021. The 30-year fixed rate has increased 20 basis points over the past month and reached 3.23 percent last week – the highest since April 2021. The 15-year fixed rate increased to 2.54 percent, which is the highest since July,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Purchase activity declined and was 12 percent lower than a year ago, within the annual comparison range that it has been over the past six weeks. Insufficient housing supply and elevated home-price growth continue to limit options for would-be buyers.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) increased to 3.23 percent from 3.18 percent, with points decreasing to 0.35 from 0.37 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With relatively low rates, the index remains somewhat elevated - but the recent bump in rates has slowed activity.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 12% year-over-year unadjusted.

Note: The year ago comparisons for the unadjusted purchase index are now difficult since purchase activity was strong in the second half of 2020.

Note: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).