by Calculated Risk on 10/07/2021 03:23:00 PM

The CDC is the source for all data.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.  Total doses administered: 399,552,444, as of a week ago 392,909,995, or 0.95 million doses per day.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	56.2%	55.6%	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	186.6	184.6	≥2321
New Cases per Day3	95,448	107,953	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3	63,921	74,091	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3	1,431	1,562	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

IMPORTANT: For "herd immunity" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID).  

KUDOS to the residents of the 13 states and D.C. that have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 69.8%, Connecticut, Maine, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Maryland, New York, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Washington, Oregon, Virginia, and District of Columbia at 60.7%.

The following 22 states have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: Colorado at 59.9%, California, Minnesota, Hawaii, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Florida, Wisconsin, Texas, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Kentucky, South Dakota, Arizona, Kansas, Nevada, Alaska, Utah, North Carolina and Ohio at 50.7%.

Next up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are Montana at 48.9%, Indiana at 48.8%, Missouri at 48.4% and Oklahoma at 48.2%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

by Calculated Risk on 10/07/2021 01:29:00 PM

Today, in the Newsletter: Homebuilder Comments in September: “Supply chain, supply chain, supply chain."

Excerpt:

Some homebuilder comments courtesy of Rick Palacios Jr., Director of Research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting (a must follow for housing on twitter!):

"Just published September home builder survey results (sales, prices, costs, communities, etc.). Big themes: 1) Supply chain, supply chain, supply chain. 2) Monthly price hikes no longer the norm. 3) Some of the hottest markets sounding toppy. Market commentary to follow…"

by Calculated Risk on 10/07/2021 11:38:00 AM

On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for September. The consensus is for 460 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 5.1%.

There were 235 thousand jobs added in August, and the unemployment rate was at 5.2%.

Click on graph for larger image.

• First, currently there are still about 5.3 million fewer jobs than in February 2020 (before the pandemic).

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, but is now better than the worst of the "Great Recession".

• ADP Report: The ADP employment report showed a gain of 568,000 private sector jobs, above the consensus estimate of 430,000 jobs added.  The ADP report hasn't been very useful in predicting the BLS report, but this suggests the BLS report could be above expectations.

• ISM Surveys: Note that the ISM services are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires).  The ISM® manufacturing employment index increased in September to 50.2%, up from 49.0% last month.   This would suggest a decline in manufacturing employment of around 20,000 jobs in September. ADP showed 49,000 manufacturing jobs added.

The ISM® Services employment index decreased in September to 53.0%, down from 53.7% last month.   This would suggest an increase in service employment of around 150,000 jobs in September.

Combined, the ISM indexes suggest a weaker than expected employment report.

• Unemployment Claims: The weekly claims report showed little change in the number of initial unemployment claims during the reference week (includes the 12th of the month) from 349,000 in August to 351,000 in September. This would usually suggest about the same number of layoffs in September as in August, although this might not be very useful right now. In general, weekly claims have been above expectations in September.

• Permanent Job Losers: Something to watch in the employment report will be "Permanent job losers". While there has been a strong bounce back in total employment, from the shutdown in March and April 2020, permanent job losers hasn't increased as sharply.

This graph shows permanent job losers as a percent of the pre-recession peak in employment through the June report.

This data is only available back to 1994, so there is only data for three recessions. In August, the number of permanent job losers decreased to 2.487 million from 2.930 million in July. These jobs will likely be the hardest to recover.

• IMPORTANT: Usually in September, about 1.2 million educators are hired as the school year starts in some areas.  This is seasonally adjusted to around 0 (since it is expected).  It is unclear if that many will be hired this year - or more (making up for low hiring), or less (due to the ongoing pandemic).  This could distort the headline number.

• Conclusion: The data is mixed for September.   However, the consensus is fairly low.

As far as the pandemic, the number of daily cases during the reference week in September was around 142,000, up from around 128,000 in August.   It did appear that cases peaked in early September, so by the reference week there was some optimism that cases were declining.

My sense is the report will be close to consensus expectations.

by Calculated Risk on 10/07/2021 08:35:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending October 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 326,000, a decrease of 38,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 362,000 to 364,000. The 4-week moving average was 344,000, an increase of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 340,000 to 340,500.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 344,000.

The previous week was revised up.

Regular state continued claims decreased to 2,714,000 (SA) from 2,811,000 (SA) the previous week.

Note (released with a 2 week delay): There were an additional 647,690 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 1,059,248 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This was a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.  And threre were an additional 630,814 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) down from 991,813.

Weekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 10/06/2021 08:00:00 PM

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 345 thousand initial claims, down from 362 thousand last week.

by Calculated Risk on 10/06/2021 05:12:00 PM

The CDC is the source for all data.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.  Total doses administered: 398,675,414, as of a week ago 391,992,662, or 0.95 million doses per day.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	56.1%	55.9%	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	186.4	185.5	≥2321
New Cases per Day3	96,757	109,273	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3	65,162	75,426	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3	1,428	1,488	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

IMPORTANT: For "herd immunity" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID).  

KUDOS to the residents of the 13 states and D.C. that have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 69.8%, Connecticut, Maine, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Maryland, New York, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Washington, Oregon, Virginia, and District of Columbia at 60.6%.

The following 22 states have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: Colorado at 59.8%, California, Minnesota, Hawaii, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Florida, Wisconsin, Texas, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Kentucky, South Dakota, Arizona, Kansas, Nevada, Alaska, Utah, North Carolina and Ohio at 50.6%.

Next up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are Montana at 48.8%, Indiana at 48.7%, Missouri at 48.4% and Oklahoma at 48.1%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

by Calculated Risk on 10/06/2021 11:33:00 AM

Today, in the Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September

Excerpt:

Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in September. Inventory was down 1.0% in September MoM from August, and down 36.6% YoY.

Inventory in San Diego is at an all time low, whereas inventory in Denver is up 107% (about double) from the all time low in March of this year. Las Vegas inventory is up 74% from the record low in April. Most markets have seen active inventory increase from earlier this year, but San Diego and Miami are plumbing new lows.

by Calculated Risk on 10/06/2021 08:19:00 AM

From ADP:

Private sector employment increased by 568,000 jobs from August to September according to the September ADP® National Employment ReportTM. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual data of those who are on a company’s payroll, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis

“The labor market recovery continues to make progress despite a marked slowdown from the 748,000 job pace in the second quarter,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Leisure and hospitality remains one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, yet hiring is still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. Current bottlenecks in hiring should fade as the health conditions tied to the COVID-19 variant continue to improve, setting the stage for solid job gains in the coming months.”
emphasis added

This was well above the consensus forecast of 430,000 for this report.

The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 460 thousand non-farm payroll jobs added in September. The ADP report has not been very useful in predicting the BLS report.

by Calculated Risk on 10/06/2021 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 6.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 1, 2021.

... The Refinance Index decreased 10 percent from the previous week and was 16 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 13 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage applications to refinance dropped almost 10 percent last week to the lowest level in three months, as the 30-year fixed rate increased to 3.14 percent – the highest since July. Higher rates are reducing borrowers’ incentive to refinance, as declines were seen across all loan types,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Purchase activity also fell, driven by a drop in conventional loan applications. Government purchase applications were up over 1 percent, but that was still not enough to bring down the average loan balance of $410,000. With home-price appreciation and sales prices remaining very elevated, applications for higher balance, conventional loans still dominate the mix of activity.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) increased to 3.14 percent from 3.10 percent, with points increasing to 0.35 from 0.34 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With low rates, the index remains elevated - but the recent bump in rates has slowed activity.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 13% year-over-year unadjusted.

Note: The year ago comparisons for the unadjusted purchase index are now difficult since purchase activity was strong in the second half of 2020.

Note: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).

by Calculated Risk on 10/05/2021 08:11:00 PM

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for September. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 430,000 jobs added, up from 374,000 in August.