by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2021 09:52:00 AM

I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.

From the Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS®:

Closed sales (attached and detached) in July 2021 were 3,149, down 16.2% from 3,759 in July 2020.

Active Listings in July 2021 were 4,668, down 40.6% from 7,852 in July 2020.

Months of Supply was 1.4 Months in July 2021, compared to 2.8 Months in July 2020.

Inventory in July was up 1.8% from the previous month, and up 7.1% from the record low in May 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2021 08:11:00 AM

The key reports this week are July Housing Starts and Retail sales.

For manufacturing, the Industrial Production report will be released.

The BLS will release the preliminary employment benchmark revision.

----- Monday, August 16th -----
8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for August. The consensus is for a reading of 29.0, down from 43.0.

----- Tuesday, August 17th -----
8:30 AM: Retail sales for July is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for 0.2% decrease in retail sales.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline)

9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for July.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 75.7%.

10:00 AM: The August NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 80, unchanged from 80. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

12:00 PM: MBA Q2 National Delinquency Survey (expected)

1:30 PM: Fed Chair Powell speaks: Conversation with the Chair: A Virtual Teacher Town Hall Meeting

----- Wednesday, August 18th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts for July.

This graph shows single and total housing starts since 1968.

The consensus is for 1.602 million SAAR, down from 1.643 million SAAR in June.

10:00 AM: the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the preliminary estimate of the upcoming annual benchmark revision.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for July (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, July 27-28, 2021

----- Thursday, August 19th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for a decrease to 360 thousand from 375 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for August. The consensus is for a reading of 25.0, up from 21.9.

----- Friday, August 20th -----
10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for July 2021

by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2021 05:30:00 PM

Congratulations to the residents of California and Pennsylvania on joining the 80% club! Go for 90%!!! (80% of adults have had at least one shot).

The 7-day average cases is the highest since February 6th.

The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since February 15th.

The 7-day average deaths is the highest since May 19th.

This data is from the CDC.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.

Total doses administered: 354,777,950, as of a week ago 349,787,479. Average doses last week: 0.71 million per day.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Yesterday	Week Ago	Goal
Percent over 18, One Dose✅	71.6%	71.5%	70.6%	≥70.0%1,2
Fully Vaccinated✅ (millions)	167.7	167.4	165.9	≥1601
New Cases per Day3🚩	116,508	114,208	100,981	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	64,231	62,117	47,709	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩	514	491	424	≤502
1 America's Short Term Goals, 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Short term goal met (even if late).

KUDOS to the residents of the 21 states and D.C. that have achieved the 70% goal (percent over 18 with at least one dose): Vermont, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maine, New Jersey, New Mexico, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, California are at 80%+, Maryland, Washington, New Hampshire, New York, Illinois, Virginia, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado, Florida and D.C. are all over 70%.

Next up are Utah at 69.7%, Nebraska at 68.9%, Wisconsin at 68.6%, Kansas at 68.1%, South Dakota at 67.8%, Nevada at 67.6%, Texas at 67.5%, and Iowa at 67.1%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

The current wave is already the second worst for cases although there was limited testing during the first wave.

by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2021 01:04:00 PM

I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.

From the Santa Clara Realtors (includes San Jose):

Closed sales (single family and condos) in July 2021 were 1,783, up 29.4% from 1,378. in July 2020.

Active Listings in July 2021 were 1,820, down 6.7% from 1,950¹ in July 2020. (¹estimate)

Inventory in July was up 3.0% from the previous month, and up 58.4% from the record low in December 2020.

by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2021 11:16:00 AM

From BofA:

We look for growth of 7.0% qoq SAAR in 3Q ... We forecast retail sales fell by 2.3% mom in July, reflecting cooling service demand on Delta concerns and weaker online spend from the pull forward in the timing of Prime day. This poses significant downside risk to our 3Q GDP forecast; if we are correct, 3Q GDP tracking could fall to 3%. [August 13 estimate]
emphasis added

From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 3.8% for 2021:Q3. [August 13 estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 6.0 percent on August 6, down from 6.1 percent on August 5. [August 6 estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2021 09:23:00 AM

Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.

This data is as of August 10th.

From Andy Walden at Black Knight: Another Week of Significant Forbearance Declines

In the wake of last week’s 71,000 drop over the first days of August, our McDash Flash daily mortgage performance dataset showed another significant decline in the number of active forbearance plans in the days since. The total number of active plans declined by 83,000 since last Tuesday, pushing the total number of homeowners in forbearance below 1.8 million for the first time since early in the pandemic.

As we’ve mentioned in the past, the largest movement in the number of forbearances tends to be seen early on in each month, as plans scheduled for three-month reviews in the month prior are reviewed for extension or removal.

As of August 10, 1.74 million homeowners remain in COVID-19-related forbearance plans, representing 3.3% of all active mortgages, including 1.9% of GSE, 5.8% of FHA/VA and 3.9% of loans held in bank portfolio and private securitizations.

Improvement was seen across the board. Portfolio and PLS loans saw the strongest reduction, with a 43,000 (-7.8%) decline in active plans. The number of FHA loans in forbearance fell by 25,000 (-3.5%) from the week prior, while GSE loans saw a 15,000 (-2.7%) decline. That puts the number of active plans down 125,000 (-6.7%) from the same time last month.

Click on graph for larger image.

Plan starts, including both new plans and restarts, pulled back again this week, hitting their lowest weekly mark since early July (again). Of the 185,000 plans reviewed over the past week, 62% were exits.

More than 250,000 plans are currently slated for review for extension/removal throughout August. An estimated one-third of those are set to reach their final expiration based on current allowable forbearance term lengths. Volumes of final expirations will increase significantly in September and October.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2021 08:22:00 AM

I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.

From the San Diego Realtors:

Closed sales (attached and detached) in July 2021 were 3,600, down 4.5% from 3,769 in July 2020.

Active Listings in July 2021 were 3349, down 41.9% from 5,763 in July 2020.

Months of Supply for attached was 1.0 Months in July 2021, compared to 1.9 Months in July 2020.

Inventory in July was down slightly from the previous month, and up 13.0% from the record low in March 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2021 07:37:00 PM

First, on the economic impact of the delta variant from BofA today:

'Our big data business cycle indicator is at risk of a regime shift from "boom" to "soft patch" because of the Delta wave.'

Florida and Texas are in a serious crisis (see graphs and comments at bottom).

The 7-day average cases is the highest since February 6th.

The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since February 16th.

The 7-day average deaths is the highest since May 22nd.

This data is from the CDC.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.

Total doses administered: 353,859,894, as of a week ago 348,966,419. Average doses last week: 0.70 million per day.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Yesterday	Week Ago	Goal
Percent over 18, One Dose✅	71.5%	71.3%	70.4%	≥70.0%1,2
Fully Vaccinated✅ (millions)	167.4	167.1	165.6	≥1601
New Cases per Day3🚩	114,190	112,751	96,453	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	62,041	59,755	45,456	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩	492	479	406	≤502
1 America's Short Term Goals, 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Short term goal met (even if late).

KUDOS to the residents of the 21 states and D.C. that have achieved the 70% goal (percent over 18 with at least one dose): Vermont, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maine, New Jersey, New Mexico and Rhode Island are at 80%+, Pennsylvania, California, Maryland, Washington, New Hampshire, New York, Illinois, Virginia, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado, Florida and D.C. are all over 70%.

Next up are Utah at 69.7%, Nebraska at 68.8%, Wisconsin at 68.5%, Kansas at 68.0%, South Dakota at 67.6%, Nevada at 67.4%, Texas at 67.1%, and Iowa at 66.8%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

The current wave is already the second worst for cases although there was limited testing during the first wave.

The second graphs shows hospitalizations in Florida.

Hospitalizations in Florida are already at a record level, and Florida is running out of ICU beds.

According to data from the HHS on hospital utilizations, over 90% of ICU beds in Florida are occupied, and more than half of those are COVID patients.  Grim

And on Texas, from the Texas Tribune: “I am frightened by what is coming”: Texas hospitals could soon be overwhelmed by COVID-19 caseload, officials say

Texas hospitals are on the brink of catastrophe, close to being completely overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients, leaders of some of the state’s largest hospitals told state lawmakers Tuesday.

Official after official used their strongest descriptions to get the point across to legislators: Hospitalizations are rising too fast for them to keep up with, and it may be too late to do anything about it.

“While more vaccination is the only thing that can ultimately bring this pandemic to an end, we need more decisive actions now to prevent a catastrophe the likes of which we only imagined last year,” Dr. Esmaeil Porsa, CEO of Harris Health System in Houston, told the Texas Senate Health and Human Services Committee on Tuesday.

This data is from the CDC.

by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2021 02:14:00 PM

I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.

From the South Carolina Realtors for the entire state:

Closed sales in July 2021 were 9,658, down 9.5% from 10,675 in July 2020.

Active Listings in July 2021 were 12,869,, down 40.4% from 21,592 in July 2020.

Months of Supply for attached was 1.4 Months in July 2021, compared to 2.6 Months in July 2020.

Inventory in July was up 15.3% from the previous month, and up 23.1% from the record low in May 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2021 12:06:00 PM

Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.

From the Maryland Realtors for the entire state:

Closed sales in July 2021 were 9,685, down 3.2% from 10,001 in July 2020.

Active Listings in July 2021 were 10,164, down 30.8% from 14,685 in July 2020.

Months of Supply was 1.1 Months in July 2021, compared to 2.0 Months in July 2020.

Inventory in July was up 18.9% from last month, and up 64% from the all time low in March 2021.