by Calculated Risk on 5/12/2021 08:32:00 AM

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.8 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.6 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 4.2 percent before seasonal adjustment. This is the largest 12-month increase since a 4.9-percent increase for the period ending September 2008.
...
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.9 percent in April, its largest monthly increase since April 1982. Nearly all major component indexes increased in April. Along with the index for used cars and trucks, the indexes for shelter, airline fares, recreation, motor vehicle insurance, and household furnishings and operations were among the indexes with a large impact on the overall increase.

The all items index rose 4.2 percent for the 12 months ending April, a larger increase than the 2.6- percent increase for the period ending March. Similarly, the index for all items less food and energy rose 3.0 percent over the last 12 months, a larger increase than the 1.6-percent rise over the 12 month period ending in March. The energy index rose 25.1 percent over the last 12-months, and the food index increased 2.4 percent.
emphasis added

CPI and core CPI were well above expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

by Calculated Risk on 5/12/2021 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 2.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 7, 2021.

... The Refinance Index increased 3 percent from the previous week and was 12 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 13 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates fell last week to the lowest levels since February, tracking the dip in Treasury yields. The decline in rates helped the refinance index reach its highest level in eight weeks, driven by a 4 percent increase in conventional refinances. Additionally, refinance loan balances increased for the fourth straight week, an indication that higher-balance borrowers acted to take quick advantage of lower rates,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “The first week of May was also strong for the purchase market. Applications were up 13 percent from a year ago, which was around the time the housing market awakened from the pandemic-induced stall in activity. Most markets this spring continue to see robust demand, but activity continues to be constrained by insufficient inventory levels, as well as homebuilder challenges related to the ongoing shortages and price increases for building materials.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) decreased to 3.11 percent from 3.18 percent, with points decreasing to 0.32 from 0.34 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With low rates, the index remains elevated, but below recent levels since mortgage rates have moved up from the record lows.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 13% year-over-year unadjusted.

Note: The unadjusted MBA purchase index will be up year-over-year for another week or so, since purchase activity collapsed in the early weeks of the pandemic - but then the comparisons will be more difficult.

Note: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).

by Calculated Risk on 5/11/2021 09:54:00 PM

Note: Remember sales were weak in April 2020 due to the pandemic. I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.

For Portland, OR:

Closed sales in April 2021 were 2,946, up 46.2% from 2,015 in April 2020.

Active Listings in April 2021 were 2,222, down 53.3% from 4,757 in April 2020.

Inventory in April was up 14.4% from last month.

Months of Supply was 0.8 Months in April 2021, compared to 2.4 Months in April 2020.

by Calculated Risk on 5/11/2021 09:00:00 PM

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for April from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.2% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.

• At 11:00 AM, NY Fed: Q1 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit

by Calculated Risk on 5/11/2021 03:58:00 PM

President Biden has set two vaccinations goals to achieve by July 4th:
1) 70% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose of vaccine, and
2) 160 million Americans fully vaccinated.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations. Total administered: 263,132,561, as of yesterday: 261,599,381. Day: 1.53 million.  (U.S. Capacity is around 4 million per day)

 
1) 58.5% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose.
2) 115.4 million Americans are fully vaccinated.

Note: I'll stop posting this daily once all three of these criteria are met:
1) 70% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose of vaccine, and
2) new cases are under 5,000 per day, and
3) hospitalizations are below 3,000.

And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. 

Almost 6,000 US deaths were reported so far in May due to COVID.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

Note: The ups and downs during the Winter surge were related to reporting delays due to the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays.

This data is from the CDC.

The 7-day average is 38,042, down from 39,550 yesterday, and down sharply from the recent peak of 69,881 on April 13, 2021. This is the lowest since September 15, 2020, but still above the post-summer surge low of 34,668.

The second graph shows the number of people hospitalized.

This data is also from the CDC.

The CDC cautions that due to reporting delays, the area in grey will probably increase.

The current 7-day average is 31,210, up from 30,508 reported yesterday, and still above the post-summer surge low of 23,000.

by Calculated Risk on 5/11/2021 01:18:00 PM

Note: Remember sales were weak in April 2020 due to the pandemic. I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.

From the New Hampshire Realtors for the entire state:

Closed sales Single family and Condos in April 2021 were 1,679, up 13.0% from 1,486 in April 2020.

Active Listings Single family and Condos in April 2021 were 1,852, down 56.9% from 4,295 in April 2020.

Inventory in April was up 17.5% from last month.

Months of Supply for Single family and Condos in April 2021 was 0.8 months, down from 2.2 months in April 2020.

by Calculated Risk on 5/11/2021 12:26:00 PM

Note: Remember sales were weak in April 2020 due to the pandemic.  I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.

For Boston (single family and condos):

Closed sales in April 2021 were 2,226, up 34.5% from 1,655 in April 2020.

Active Listings in April 2021 were 3,788, up 9.3% from 3,467 in April 2020.  

Inventory in April was up 18.0% from last month.

by Calculated Risk on 5/11/2021 11:56:00 AM

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Increases In April

The Dodge Momentum Index posted an 8.6% gain in April, climbing to 162.4 (2000=100) from the revised reading of 149.5 in March. The Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Data & Analytics, is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. April’s gain marks the fifth consecutive monthly increase, and similar to February and March, was due to a large increase in institutional buildings entering the planning stage while commercial planning eased by less than one percent.

Since hitting its nine-year low in January, institutional planning has rebounded substantially, climbing 77% over the last three months. Healthcare and laboratory projects continue to dominate the sector, pushing institutional planning 50% higher on a year-over-year basis. Conversely, the commercial component has slipped in recent months as fewer warehouse projects have entered planning, though the sector is 21% higher than in April 2020. Overall, the Momentum Index is 31% higher than last April, which was the first full month of COVID-19 shutdowns.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 162.4 in April, up from 149.5 in March.

According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year".  This index suggests a decline in Commercial Real Estate construction through most of 2021, but maybe a pickup towards the end of the year.

by Calculated Risk on 5/11/2021 10:08:00 AM

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

The number of job openings reached a series high of 8.1 million on the last business day of March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires were little changed at 6.0 million. Total separations were little changed at 5.3 million. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.4 percent while the layoffs and discharges rate decreased to a series low of 1.0 percent.
emphasis added

The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This series started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for March, the most recent employment report was for April.

Click on graph for larger image.

Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

The huge spikes in layoffs and discharges in March and April 2020 are labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.

Jobs openings increased in March to 8.123 million from 7.526 million in February.  This is above the previous series maximum of 7.574 million.

The number of job openings (yellow) were up 40.8% year-over-year. This is a comparison to the beginning of the pandemic.

Quits were up 20.9% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

by Calculated Risk on 5/11/2021 08:34:00 AM

Most of this survey is noise, but sometimes there is some information.

From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): April 2021 Report

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 99.8 in April, an increase of 1.6 points from March. The Optimism Index has increased 4.8 points over the past three months since January but a record 44% of owners reported job openings they could not be filled.
...
Strong job growth continued for small businesses in April. Firms increased employment by 0.31 workers per firm on average over the past few months. The average has been above 0.30 since December 2020, historically an exceptional performance.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986.

The index increased further in April.