by Calculated Risk on 2/10/2021 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 4.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 5, 2021.

... The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 46 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 17 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates have increased in four of the first six weeks of 2021, with jumbo rates being the only loan type that saw a decline last week. Despite some weekly volatility, Treasury rates have been driven higher by expectations of faster economic growth as the COVID-19 vaccine rollout continues,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “With the 30-year fixed rate increasing to 2.96 percent – a high not seen since last November – refinances declined, and their share of total applications dipped to the lowest level in three months. Government refinance applications did buck the trend and increase, and overall activity was still 46 percent higher than a year ago. Demand for refinances is still very strong this winter.”

Added Kan, “Purchase applications cooled the first week of February, but homebuyers are still very active. Purchase activity was 17 percent higher than last year, and the average purchase loan size continued to increase, reaching another survey high of $402,200, as the higher-priced segment of the market continues to perform well.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) increased to 2.96 percent from 2.92 percent, with points increasing to 0.36 from 0.32 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index has been volatile recently depending on rates.

With near record low rates, the index remains up significantly from last year (but will be down year-over-year in early March - since rates fell sharply at the beginning of the pandemic).

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 17% year-over-year unadjusted.

Note: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).

by Calculated Risk on 2/09/2021 09:26:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged From Last Week

Mortgage rates have been extremely stable given their proximity to all-time lows. Past precedent suggests one of two things when rates set records: a slow grind lower with additional periodic records or a rather abrupt bounce back in the other direction.

The 2nd half of 2020 was definitely characterized by the aforementioned slow grind with at least 20 separate days resulting in record low rates by December 21st. Since then, rates have gone no lower, but apart from a brief stint in early January, they really haven't gone appreciably higher either. This is made all the more impressive by the fact that the broader bond market is indeed telling mortgage rates to rise. Specifically, 10yr Treasury yields--a perennial travel companion for 30yr fixed mortgage rates--have been rising consistently since August 2020.

Mortgage rates were largely immune to that Treasury trend due to volatility at the beginning of the pandemic. Mortgage rates simply weren't able to drop as quickly as Treasury yields and have been closing the gap ever since. [30 year fixed 2.83%]
emphasis added

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for January from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.4% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI.

• At 2:00 PM, Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, State of the U.S. Labor Market, At the Economic Club of New York Webinar

by Calculated Risk on 2/09/2021 07:22:00 PM

SPECIAL NOTE: The Covid Tracking Project will end daily updates on March 7th. Heroes that filled a critical void! Quality government data will likely be available soon.

From Bloomberg on vaccinations as of Feb 9th.

"In the U.S., more Americans have now received at least one dose than have tested positive for the virus since the pandemic began. So far, 44.4 million doses have been given, according to a state-by-state tally. In the last week, an average of 1.53 million doses per day were administered."

Here is the CDC COVID Data Tracker. This has data on vaccinations, cases and more.

The US is now averaging close to 2.0 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US has far too many daily cases - and percent positive - to do effective test-and-trace.

There were 1,611,368 test results reported over the last 24 hours.

There were 92,986 positive tests.

Over 26,000 US deaths have been reported in February. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. (updated link to new site)

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 5.8%.  The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by total tests (including pending).

Both cases and hospitalizations have peaked, but are declining from a very high level.   

by Calculated Risk on 2/09/2021 01:52:00 PM

From the DMAR: Monthly Indicators, January 2021

In January, the Greater Denver Metro housing market again broke an all-time record, a new inventory low with only 2,316 total properties on the market, translating into an inventory shortage and opportunity for appreciation to accelerate.

Single-family detached properties hit a record average price of $629,159, while attached properties hit a record of $397,792. Single-family home sellers saw a 101.03 percent close-to-list-price in January and a drop to five days in the MLS, down from six last month and 24 days last year. ...

“Interestingly enough, just because at the end of the month there are not many houses to choose from did not affect the amount of properties going under contract,” said Andrew Abrams, Chair of the DMAR Market Trends Committee and Metro Denver REALTOR®. “There were 4,459 pending properties in January, which is only a 1.09 percent decrease from last year at this time, and 2020 as a whole sang a similar note. There were more homes purchased throughout all of last year than any previous year, but at the end of every month towards the end of the year, there was not much inventory meaning the attrition rate was high.”

The number of residential units sold in January (attached and detached) decreased to 3,015, down 10.3% from 3,361 in January 2020.

Active listings were at 2,316, down 53.1 from 4,941 in January 2020. This is a record low.

by Calculated Risk on 2/09/2021 12:04:00 PM

From the NMHC: NMHC Rent Payment Tracker Finds 79.2 Percent of Apartment Households Paid Rent as of February 6

he National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC)’s Rent Payment Tracker found 79.2 percent of apartment households made a full or partial rent payment by February 6 in its survey of 11.6 million units of professionally managed apartment units across the country.

This is a 1.9 percentage point, or 216,479 household decrease from the share who paid rent through February 6, 2020 and compares to 76.6 percent that had paid by January 6, 2021. These data encompass a wide variety of market-rate rental properties across the United States, which can vary by size, type and average rental price.

"As we approach almost a full year of navigating the pandemic and the resulting financial distress, we remain encouraged by the COVID relief package passed at the end of 2020 that included critical support for apartment residents and the nation's rental housing industry such as $25 billion in rental assistance, extended unemployment benefits and direct payments," said Doug Bibby, NMHC President.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from the NMHC Rent Payment Tracker shows the percent of household making full or partial rent payments by the 6th of the month compared to the same month the prior year.

This is mostly for large, professionally managed properties.  

The second graph shows full month payments through January compared to the same month the prior year.

This shows a decline in rent payments year-over-year, and somewhat more of a decline over the last several months.

CR Note: There are some timing issues month to month, but rent payments appear to be declining.
 

by Calculated Risk on 2/09/2021 10:08:00 AM

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

The number of job openings was little changed at 6.6 million on the last business day of December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires decreased to 5.5 million while total separations were little changed at 5.5 million. Within separations, the quits rate and layoffs and discharges rate were little changed at 2.3 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively.
emphasis added

The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This series started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for December, the most recent employment report was for January.

Click on graph for larger image.

Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

The huge spikes in layoffs and discharges in March and April 2020 are labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.

Jobs openings increased in December to 6.646 million from 6.572 million in November.

The number of job openings (yellow) were up 1.4% year-over-year.  Note that job openings were declining a year ago prior to the pandemic.

Quits were down 6.9% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

by Calculated Risk on 2/09/2021 08:38:00 AM

Most of this survey is noise, but sometimes there is some information.

From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): January [2021] Report

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined in January to 95.0, down 0.9 from December and three points below the 47-year average of 98. ... “As Congress debates another stimulus package, small employers welcome any additional relief that will provide a powerful fiscal boost as their expectations for the future are uncertain,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “The COVID-19 pandemic continues to dictate how small businesses operate and owners are worried about future business conditions and sales.”
...
NFIB’s monthly jobs report showed job growth continued in January. Firms increased employment by 0.36 workers per firm on average over the past few months, up from 0.30 in December, a strong 2-month performance. However, the hiring remains uneven geographically and by industry.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986.

The index declined in January.

by Calculated Risk on 2/08/2021 09:11:00 PM

Tuesday:
• At 6:00 AM ET, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for January.

• At 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for November from the BLS.

by Calculated Risk on 2/08/2021 07:13:00 PM

SPECIAL NOTE: The Covid Tracking Project will end daily updates on March 7th. Heroes that filled a critical void! Quality government data will likely be available soon.

From Bloomberg on vaccinations as of Feb 8th.

"In the U.S., more Americans have now received at least one dose than have tested positive for the virus since the pandemic began. So far, 43.1 million doses have been given, according to a state-by-state tally. In the last week, an average of 1.47 million doses per day were administered."

Also check out the graphs at COVID-19 Vaccine Projections The site has several interactive graphs related to US COVID vaccinations including a breakdown of how many have had one shot, and how many have had both shots.

The US is now averaging close to 2.0 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US has far too many daily cases - and percent positive - to do effective test-and-trace.

There were 1,434,298 test results reported over the last 24 hours.

There were 77,737 positive tests. This is the fewest daily positive cases since October.

Over 23,000 US deaths have been reported in February. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. (updated link to new site)

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 5.4%.  The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by total tests (including pending).

Both cases and hospitalizations have peaked, but are declining from a very high level.   

by Calculated Risk on 2/08/2021 04:00:00 PM

Note: This is as of January 31st.

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Declines to 5.35%

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 3 basis points from 5.38% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 5.35% as of January 31, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 2.7 million homeowners are in forbearance plans.
...
“The share of loans in forbearance decreased at the end of January across all investor categories. Almost 14 percent of homeowners in forbearance were reported as current on their payments at the end of last month, but the share has declined nearly every month from 28 percent in May,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “While new forbearance requests increased slightly at the end of January, the rate of exits picked up somewhat but remained much lower than in recent months. We are anticipating a sharp increase in exits in March and April as borrowers hit the 12-month expiration of their forbearance plans.”

Fratantoni added, “The job market rebounded slightly in January following a decline in December, but there are still 6.5 percent fewer jobs in the U.S. economy compared to February 2020. The proportion of long-term unemployed also remains troubling, with 4 million people who have been actively looking for work for 27 weeks or more. These are the homeowners who are likely to still be in forbearance and need additional support until the job market recovers to a greater extent.”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time.  Most of the increase was in late March and early April, then trended down - and has mostly moved sideways recently.

The MBA notes: "Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) increased relative to the prior week: from 0.06% to 0.07%."