by Calculated Risk on 4/04/2018 10:03:00 AM

The March ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 58.8%, down from 59.5% in February. The employment index increased in March to 56.6%, from 55.0%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

From the Institute for Supply Management: March 2018 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

conomic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in March for the 98th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: "The NMI® registered 58.8 percent, which is 0.7 percentage point lower than the February reading of 59.5 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slightly slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 60.6 percent, 2.2 percentage points lower than the February reading of 62.8 percent, reflecting growth for the 104th consecutive month, at a slower rate in March. The New Orders Index registered 59.5 percent, 5.3 percentage points lower than the reading of 64.8 percent in February. The Employment Index increased 1.6 percentage points in March to 56.6 percent from the February reading of 55 percent. The Prices Index increased by 0.5 percentage point from the February reading of 61 percent to 61.5 percent, indicating that prices increased in March for the 25th consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 15 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. Despite the slight dip in the NMI® composite index, the non-manufacturing sector enjoyed another month of strong growth in March. The cooling off of the New Orders Index possibly prevented an even stronger reading for the NMI® composite index. The majority of respondents remain positive about business conditions."
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the ISM non-manufacturing index (started in January 2008) and the ISM non-manufacturing employment diffusion index.

This suggests slightly slower expansion in March than in February.

by Calculated Risk on 4/04/2018 08:20:00 AM

From ADP:

Private sector employment increased by 241,000 jobs from February to March according to the March ADP National Employment Report®. ... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
...
“We saw impressive momentum in the first quarter of 2018 with more jobs added per month on average than in 2017,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Midsized businesses added nearly half of all jobs this month, the best growth this segment has seen since the fall of 2014. The manufacturing industry also performed well, with its strongest increase in more than three years.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market is rip-roaring. Monthly job growth remains firmly over 200,000, double the pace of labor force growth. The tight labor market continues to tighten.”

This was above the consensus forecast for 180,000 private sector jobs added in the ADP report. 

The BLS report for March will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 167,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in March.

by Calculated Risk on 4/04/2018 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 3.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 30, 2018.

... The Refinance Index decreased 5 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 5 percent higher than the same week one year ago. ...

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($453,100 or less) remained unchanged at 4.69 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.43 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

Refinance activity will not pick up significantly unless mortgage rates fall 50 bps or more from the recent level.



The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 5% year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 4/03/2018 09:07:00 PM

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for March. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 180,000 payroll jobs added in March, down from 235,000 added in February.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for March. The consensus is for index to decrease to 59.0 from 59.5 in February.

by Calculated Risk on 4/03/2018 06:57:00 PM

The Fed's Household Debt Service ratio through Q4 2017 was released on today: Household Debt Service and Financial Obligations Ratios. I used to track this quarterly back in 2005 and 2006 to point out that households were taking on excessive financial obligations.

These ratios show the percent of disposable personal income (DPI) dedicated to debt service (DSR) and financial obligations (FOR) for households. Note: The Fed changed the release in Q3 2013.

The household Debt Service Ratio (DSR) is the ratio of total required household debt payments to total disposable income.

The DSR is divided into two parts. The Mortgage DSR is total quarterly required mortgage payments divided by total quarterly disposable personal income. The Consumer DSR is total quarterly scheduled consumer debt payments divided by total quarterly disposable personal income. The Mortgage DSR and the Consumer DSR sum to the DSR.

This data has limited value in terms of absolute numbers, but is useful in looking at trends. Here is a discussion from the Fed:

The limitations of current sources of data make the calculation of the ratio especially difficult. The ideal data set for such a calculation would have the required payments on every loan held by every household in the United States. Such a data set is not available, and thus the calculated series is only an approximation of the debt service ratio faced by households. Nonetheless, this approximation is useful to the extent that, by using the same method and data series over time, it generates a time series that captures the important changes in the household debt service burden.

Click on graph for larger image.

The graph shows the Total Debt Service Ratio (DSR), and the DSR for mortgages (blue) and consumer debt (yellow).

The overall Debt Service Ratio increased slightly in Q4, and has been moving up slowly from the recent record low.  Note: The financial obligation ratio (FOR) also increased slightly in Q4.

The DSR for mortgages (blue) are near the low for the last 38 years.  This ratio increased rapidly during the housing bubble, and continued to increase until 2007. With falling interest rates, and less mortgage debt (mostly due to foreclosures), the mortgage ratio has declined significantly.

The consumer debt DSR (yellow) has been increasing for the last five years.

This data suggests aggregate household cash flow has improved significantly since the great recession, but has started to decline slightly recently.

by Calculated Risk on 4/03/2018 03:11:00 PM

Based on a preliminary estimate from AutoData, light vehicle sales were at a 17.48 million SAAR in March.

That is up 4.5% year-over-year from March 2017, and up 3.0% from last month.


Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for March (red, light vehicle sales of 17.48 million SAAR  from AutoData).

This was above the consensus forecast for March.

Note that the increase in sales at the end of 2017 was due to buying following the hurricanes.

Sales will probably decline again in 2018 after setting a new sales records in both 2015 and 2016.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate.

by Calculated Risk on 4/03/2018 01:23:00 PM

From the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for January 2018. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 44 states, decreased in four, and remained stable in two, for a three-month diffusion index of 80. In the past month, the indexes increased in 47 states, decreased in two, and remained stable in one, for a one-month diffusion index of 90.
emphasis added

Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. An explanation from the Philly Fed:

The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.

Click on map for larger image.

Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the recession, and all or mostly green during most of the recent expansion.

There are a few red states on a three month basis now.

Source: Philly Fed.

Note: For complaints about red / green issues, please contact the Philly Fed.

And here is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

In January, 48 states had increasing activity (including minor increases).

The downturn in 2015 and 2016, in the number of states increasing, was mostly related to the decline in oil prices.  

The reason for the mid-to-late 2017 sharp decrease in the number of states with increasing activity was unclear.

by Calculated Risk on 4/03/2018 10:59:00 AM

Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices. Early in 2013 lumber prices came close to the housing bubble highs - and now prices are above the bubble highs.

This graph shows two measures of lumber prices: 1) Framing Lumber from Random Lengths through March 2018 (via NAHB), and 2) CME framing futures.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

Right now Random Lengths prices are up 23% from a year ago, and CME futures are up about 29% year-over-year.

There is a seasonal pattern for lumber prices. Prices frequently peak around May, and bottom around October or November - although there is quite a bit of seasonal variability.

Rising costs - both material and labor - will be headwinds for the building industry this year.

by Calculated Risk on 4/03/2018 09:43:00 AM

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for February. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for January. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports Home Prices Rose 6.7 Percent Year Over Year, Increasing for the Seventh Consecutive Month in February

CoreLogic® ... today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for February 2018, which shows home prices rose both year over year and month over month. Home prices increased nationally year over year by 6.7 percent — from February 2017 to February 2018 — and on a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 1 percent in February 2018 — compared with January 2018 — according to the CoreLogic HPI.

Looking ahead, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that the national home-price index is projected to continue to increase by 4.7 percent on a year-over-year basis from February 2018 to February 2019, with California leading the climb at a forecasted 10.3 percent year-over-year change. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices that is calculated using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

“A number of western states have had hot housing markets,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Idaho, Nevada, Utah and Washington all had home prices up more than 11 percent over the last year. With the recent rise in mortgage rates, affordability has fallen sharply in these states. We expect home-price growth to slow over the next 12 months, dropping to 5 to 6 percent in Idaho, Utah and Washington, and slowing to 9.6 percent in Nevada.”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from CoreLogic shows the Year-over-year change in house prices since 2004.

CR Note: The YoY increase has been in the 5% to 7% range for the last couple of years.  This is towards the top end of that range.

The year-over-year comparison has been positive for six consecutive years since turning positive year-over-year in February 2012.

by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2018 07:20:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Begin April Near 2-Month Lows

Mortgage rates moved lower today as underlying bond markets generally followed a much bigger move in stocks. ...with rates already fairly close to recent lows and with lenders generally holding back ahead of the extended holiday weekend, all it took was that modest improvement in bond markets for mortgage rates to drop to the lowest levels since early February. [30YR FIXED - 4.5%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, Corelogic House Price index for February.

• All day, Light vehicle sales for March. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 17.0 million SAAR in March, down from 17.1 million in February (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).