by Calculated Risk on 4/17/2017 08:56:00 AM

From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey: General Business Conditions Index Fell Eleven Points to 5.2

Responses from New York State manufacturers suggested that business activity expanded at a considerably slower pace than in the prior two months. Although the general business conditions index remained above the levels seen through most of 2016, it slipped eleven points to 5.2. ...

Employment indexes continued to signal strength in the labor market. The index for number of employees climbed another five points to 13.9—its highest level in just over two years. ...

Forward-looking indexes were mixed but generally at high levels, suggesting fairly widespread optimism about future conditions. The index for future business conditions rose three points to 39.9, while the future new orders and shipments indexes declined modestly. Employment and hours worked were expected to increase fairly briskly in the months ahead.
emphasis added

This was well below the consensus forecast of 15.

by Calculated Risk on 4/16/2017 11:51:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of Apr 16, 2017

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of 15.0, down from 16.4.

• At 10:00 AM, The April NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of  70, down from 71 in March. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P futures and DOW futures are mostly unchanged (fair value).

Oil prices were up slightly over the last week with WTI futures at $52.75 per barrel and Brent at $55.44 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $40, and Brent was at $41 - so oil prices are up about 30% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.41 per gallon - a year ago prices were at $2.12 per gallon - so gasoline prices are up about 29 cents a gallon year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 4/15/2017 08:11:00 AM

The key economic reports this week are March Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales.

For manufacturing, March industrial production, and the April New York, and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys, will be released this week.

----- Monday, Apr 17th -----
8:30 AM ET: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of 15.0, down from 16.4.

10:00 AM: The April NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of  70, down from 71 in March. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

----- Tuesday, Apr 18th-----
8:30 AM: Housing Starts for March.

This graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.

The graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then - after moving sideways for a couple of years - housing is now recovering (but still historically low).

The consensus is for 1.262 million, down from the February rate of 1.288 million.

9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for March.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 76.0%.

----- Wednesday, Apr 19th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for March (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, Apr 20th -----
8:30 AM ET: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 244 thousand initial claims, up from 234 thousand the previous week.

8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of 26.0, down from 32.8.

----- Friday, Apr 21st -----
10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for March from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 5.61 million SAAR, up from 5.48 million in February.

10:00 AM: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for March 2017

by Calculated Risk on 4/14/2017 06:50:00 PM

From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.5 percent on April 14, down from 0.6 percent on April 7. The forecast for first-quarter real consumer spending growth fell from 0.6 percent to 0.3 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Consumer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
emphasis added

From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report

The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 2.6% for 2017:Q1 and 2.1% for 2017:Q2.

Incoming data during the week lead to a reduction of the nowcast by 0.2 and 0.5 percentage point for 2017:Q1 and 2017:Q2, respectively.

The changes in the nowcast were mainly driven by a negative surprise from retail sales.

by Calculated Risk on 4/14/2017 12:09:00 PM

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (1.8% annualized rate) in March. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index was unchanged (0.3% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) monthly CPI report.

Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers fell 0.3% (-3.4% annualized rate) in March. The CPI less food and energy fell 0.1% (-1.5% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details for March here. Motor fuel was down 53% annualized in March.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.5%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.1%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 2.0%. Core PCE is for February and increased 1.75% year-over-year.

On a monthly basis, median CPI was at 1.8% annualized, trimmed-mean CPI was at 0.3% annualized, and core CPI was at -1.5% annualized.

Using these measures, inflation was soft in March - but has generally been moving up, and most of these measures are at or above the Fed's 2% target (Core PCE is still below).

by Calculated Risk on 4/14/2017 08:39:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.2 percent from February to March (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 5.2 percent from March 2016.

From the Census Bureau report:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2017, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $470.8 billion, a decrease of 0.2 percent from the previous month, and 5.2 percent above March 2016. ... The January 2017 to February 2017 percent change was revised from up 0.1 percent to down 0.3 percent.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline were down 0.2% in March.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 4.5% on a YoY basis.

The decrease in March was below expectations, and sales for February were revised down. A weak report.

by Calculated Risk on 4/13/2017 07:26:00 PM

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for March will be released.  The consensus is for no change in retail sales in March.

• Also at 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for March from the BLS. The consensus is for no change in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI.

• At 10:00 AM, Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for February.  The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in inventories.

by Calculated Risk on 4/13/2017 04:16:00 PM

A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on Apr 13, 2017:

• Total US oil rigs were up 11 to 673

• US horizontal oil rigs added 11 to 572
...
• The US horizontal oil rig count is now within three weeks of the entire number necessary to cover the US contribution to incremental global oil supply.

• US supply is blowing right through earlier production gain forecasts, up by 600 kbpd over the last half year

Click on graph for larger image.

Graph and comments Courtesy of Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC.

by Calculated Risk on 4/13/2017 12:28:00 PM

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average.

Click on graph for larger image.

On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic was up 1.6% compared to the rolling 12 months ending in February.   Outbound traffic was up 0.8% compared to 12 months ending in February.

The downturn in exports in 2015 was probably due to the slowdown in China and the stronger dollar.  Now exports are picking up again,

The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year.  

The Chinese New Year was early this year, so imports declined in February and rebounded in March

In general both exports and imports have been increasing.

by Calculated Risk on 4/13/2017 10:29:00 AM

During the recession, I started following the Sacramento market to look for changes in the mix of houses sold (equity, REOs, and short sales). For several years, not much changed. But in 2012 and 2013, we saw some significant changes with a dramatic shift from distressed sales to more normal equity sales.

This data suggests healing in the Sacramento market and other distressed markets are showing similar improvement.  Note: The Sacramento Association of REALTORS® started breaking out REOs in May 2008, and short sales in June 2009.

In March, total sales were down 2.3% from March 2016, and conventional equity sales were up 1.4% compared to the same month last year.

In March, 5.5% of all resales were distressed sales. This was down from 5.9% last month, and down from 10.1% in March 2016.

The percentage of REOs was at 3.2%, and the percentage of short sales was 2.3%.

Here are the statistics.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the percent of REO sales, short sales and conventional sales.

There has been a sharp increase in conventional (equity) sales that started in 2012 (blue) as the percentage of distressed sales declined sharply.

Active Listing Inventory for single family homes decreased 22.7% year-over-year (YoY) in March.  This was the 23rd consecutive monthly YoY decrease in inventory in Sacramento.

Cash buyers accounted for 15.2% of all sales - this has been generally declining (frequently investors).

Summary: This data suggests a normal market with few distressed sales, and less investor buying - but with limited inventory.