by Calculated Risk on 9/09/2016 11:58:00 AM

From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 3.5 percent on September 2, up from 3.2 percent on September 1.

From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report

The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 2.8% for 2016:Q3, unchanged from last week.

From Merrill Lynch:

We revise up our 3Q GDP forecast to 3% from 2.4% to reflect the recent tracking.

CR Note: Looks like real GDP growth around 3% in Q3 (and a probably little upward revision to Q2).

by Calculated Risk on 9/09/2016 09:50:00 AM

Here is another update on framing lumber prices. Early in 2013 lumber prices came close to the housing bubble highs.

The price increases in early 2013 were due to a surge in demand (more housing starts) and supply constraints (framing lumber suppliers were working to bring more capacity online).

Prices didn't increase as much early in 2014 (more supply, smaller "surge" in demand).

In 2015, even with the pickup in U.S. housing starts, prices were down year-over-year.  Note: Multifamily starts do not use as much lumber as single family starts, and there was a surge in multi-family starts.  This decline in 2015 was also probably related to weakness in China.

Prices in 2016 are now up year-over-year.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows two measures of lumber prices: 1) Framing Lumber from Random Lengths through early September 2016 (via NAHB), and 2) CME framing futures.

Right now Random Lengths prices are up 11% from a year ago, and CME futures are up about 26% year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 9/08/2016 05:58:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Rise Thanks to Europe

Mortgage Rates bounced higher today, bringing them back in line with the pervasive range of the past several weeks. As of yesterday, rates were technically at 2-week lows.

The ultra-narrow range continues to be an important caveat for any discussion of rate movement. Simply put, there is such a small gap between 2-week highs and 2-week lows that it could be easily traversed on an average day of movement. Most lenders continue to offer conventional 30yr fixed quotes around 3.375% on top tier scenarios.
emphasis added

Here is a table from Mortgage News Daily:

Home Loan Rates

View More Refinance Rates

by Calculated Risk on 9/08/2016 01:14:00 PM

The EIA released the Short-Term Energy Outlook yesterday. From the STEO:

• Benchmark North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $46/barrel (b) in August, a $1/b increase from July. This was the fourth consecutive month in which Brent spot crude oil prices averaged between $44/b and $49/b.

• Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average $43/b in 2016 and $52/b in 2017. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to average $1/b less than Brent in 2016 and 2017.

• U.S. regular gasoline retail prices are expected to decline from an average of $2.18/gallon (gal) in August to $1.92/gal in December. For the year, U.S. regular gasoline retail prices are forecast to average $2.08/gal in 2016 and $2.26/gal in 2017.

• U.S. retail gasoline prices are expected to continue falling through the end of 2016, even though gasoline demand this year is expected to be the highest ever.

by Calculated Risk on 9/08/2016 11:21:00 AM

This is a key distressed market to follow since Las Vegas has seen the largest price decline of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities.

The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported Southern Nevada Home Sales Increasing While Supply Stays Tight, GLVAR Housing Statistics for August 2016

“It’s good to see that we sold more homes last month than we did during the previous month and year, even with this persistently tight inventory we’ve been dealing with this year,” said 2016 GLVAR President Scott Beaudry, a longtime local REALTOR®. “As for home prices, we’re starting to see a more normal rate of appreciation, where prices are going up more gradually, as opposed to the double-digit increases we’ve seen the last few years.”

According to GLVAR, the total number of existing local homes, condominiums and townhomes sold in August was 3,789, up from 3,454 total sales in August of 2015. Compared to the same month one year ago, 8.7 percent more homes, and 14.7 percent more condos and townhomes sold in August.
...
The total number of single-family homes listed for sale on GLVAR’s Multiple Listing Service in August was 13,222, down 2.8 percent from one year ago. GLVAR tracked a total of 2,366 condos, high-rise condos and townhomes listed for sale on its MLS in August, down 31.6 percent from one year ago.

By the end of August, GLVAR reported 7,594 single-family homes listed without any sort of offer. That’s down 5.8 percent from one year ago. For condos and townhomes, the 1,244 properties listed without offers in August represented a 46.4 percent decrease from one year ago.

GLVAR continues to track declines in distressed sales and a corresponding increase in traditional home sales, where lenders are not controlling the transaction. In August, 4.1 percent of all local sales were short sales – when lenders allow borrowers to sell a home for less than what they owe on the mortgage. That’s down from 6.2 percent of all sales one year ago. Another 5.5 percent of all August sales were bank-owned, down from 7.0 percent one year ago.
emphasis added

1) Overall sales were up 9.7% year-over-year.

2) Total active inventory (single-family and condos) is down 14.9% from a year ago (A very sharp decline in condo inventory).

3) Distressed sales are down from 13.2% of sales in August 2015, to 9.6% of sales in August 2016.

by Calculated Risk on 9/08/2016 08:33:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending September 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 259,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 263,000. The 4-week moving average was 261,250, a decrease of 1,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 263,000.

There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. This marks 79 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970.

The previous week was unrevised.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 261,250.

This was lower than the consensus forecast of 264,000. The low level of claims suggests relatively few layoffs.

by Calculated Risk on 9/07/2016 08:37:00 PM

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 264 thousand initial claims, up from 263 thousand the previous week.

• At 10:00 AM: The Q2 Quarterly Services Report from the Census Bureau.

• At 3:00 PM, Consumer Credit for July from the Federal Reserve.  The consensus is for credit to increase $15.6 billion.

From Tim Duy at Fed Watch: Is Pushing Unemployment Lower A Risky Strategy?

The unemployment is closing in on the Fed's estimate of the natural rate of unemployment ... Consequently, Fed hawks are pushing for a rate hike sooner than later in an effort to prevent the economy from "overhearing." This overheating is argued to set the stage for the next recession.
...
Bottom Line: The Fed thinks the costs of undershooting their estimate of the natural rate of unemployment outweigh the benefits. I am skeptical they are doing the calculus right on this one. I would be more convinced they had it right if I sensed that placed greater weight on the possibility that they are too pessimistic about the natural rate. I would be more convinced if they were already at their inflation target. And I would be more convinced if their analysis of why tightening cycles end in recessions was a bit more introspective. Was it destiny or repeated policy error? But none of these things seem to be true.

by Calculated Risk on 9/07/2016 04:33:00 PM

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

Inventory was up 3.4% year-over-year in August.  This is the sixth consecutive month with a YoY increase in inventory, following fifteen consecutive months of YoY declines in Phoenix.  This could be a significant change.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in August were up 13.6% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 20.3% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now up 3.4% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster -  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.

Now inventory is increasing a little again, and - if this trend continues in Phoenix - price increases will probably slow in Phoenix.    Prices in Phoenix are up 1.6% through June (about a 3.2% annual rate) - slower than in 2015.

August Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
	Sales	YoY Change Sales	Cash Sales	Percent Cash	Active Inventory	YoY Change Inventory
Aug-08	5,660	---	1,004	17.7%	53,5691	---
Aug-09	8,008	41.5%	2,849	35.6%	38,085	-28.9%
Aug-10	7,358	-8.1%	3,129	42.5%	44,307	16.3%
Aug-11	8,712	18.4%	3,953	45.4%	26,983	-39.1%
Aug-12	7,574	-13.1%	3,382	44.7%	20,934	-22.4%
Aug-13	7,055	-6.9%	2,409	34.1%	21,444	2.4%
Aug-14	6,431	-8.8%	1,621	25.2%	26,138	21.9%
Aug-15	7,023	9.2%	1,588	22.6%	22,554	-13.7%
Aug-16	7,975	13.6%	1,616	20.3%	23,318	3.4%
1 August 2008 probably includes pending listings

by Calculated Risk on 9/07/2016 02:18:00 PM

Fed's Beige Book "Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and based on information collected on or before August 29, 2016."

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest that national economic activity continued to expand at a modest pace on balance during the reporting period of July through late August. Most Districts reported a "modest" or "moderate" pace of overall growth. However, Kansas City and New York reported no change in activity, and Philadelphia and Richmond noted that, while still expanding, activity slowed from the previous period. ...

Labor market conditions remained tight in most Districts, with moderate payroll growth noted in general. Upward wage pressures increased further and were moderate on balance, with more rapid gains reported for workers with selected specialized skill sets. Price increases remained slight overall.
emphasis added

And on real estate:

Activity in residential real estate markets expanded further in most Districts. Growth in residential construction activity was moderate across many Districts but robust in San Francisco, where contacts reported that contractors are bumping up against capacity constraints for new projects. In Minneapolis, strong growth in the construction of single-family units was offset somewhat by a slowdown in the construction of multifamily units. Contacts in Dallas reported that demand for low- to mid-priced homes remained strong, while demand for higher priced homes softened in Dallas and New York, and was flat in Chicago. By contrast, sales in Cleveland were equally skewed toward the entry-level and high-end segments of the market. Boston, Richmond, Philadelphia, and St. Louis noted that home sales slowed in some areas of their Districts due to shortages of available units. Recent house price appreciation was reported to be modest in general. Contacts in several Districts were optimistic about future growth prospects, except in Kansas City, where respondents expect further declines in sales and inventories in the months ahead.

Commercial real estate activity expanded further in most Districts. Construction and sales rose only slightly in Boston, Kansas City, and St. Louis but grew at a faster clip in Cleveland and Dallas. In the Atlanta District, construction activity expanded moderately, but contractors reported tight supply conditions, with construction backlogs of one to two years. Contacts in Richmond and New York noted strong growth in industrial construction, and vacancy rates for industrial space fell to 10-year lows in the latter District. Commercial leasing activity strengthened in New York, Richmond, and San Francisco, but grew at a softer pace in Philadelphia, where contacts described the market as in a "lull, not a retreat." Vacancy rates on commercial properties increased along with completions in the Kansas City District. Commercial rents edged up in various Districts, including in Dallas and San Francisco. Contacts in several Districts cited only modest expectations for sales and construction activity moving forward, due in part to economic uncertainty surrounding the November elections.

Interesting comment on wage pressures. Real estate is decent.

by Calculated Risk on 9/07/2016 10:15:00 AM

The BLS released the preliminary annual benchmark revision showing 150,000 fewer payroll jobs as of March 2016. The final revision will be published when the January 2017 employment report is released in February 2017. Usually the preliminary estimate is pretty close to the final benchmark estimate.

The annual revision is benchmarked to state tax records. From the BLS:

In accordance with usual practice, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is announcing the preliminary estimate of the upcoming annual benchmark revision to the establishment survey employment series. The final benchmark revision will be issued on February 3, 2017, with the publication of the January 2017 Employment Situation news release.

Each year, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey employment estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment for the month of March. These counts are derived from state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. For national CES employment series, the annual benchmark revisions over the last 10 years have averaged plus or minus three-tenths of one percent of total nonfarm employment. The preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision indicates a downward adjustment to March 2016 total nonfarm employment of -150,000 (-0.1 percent). ...

Using the preliminary benchmark estimate, this means that payroll employment in March 2016 was 150,000 lower than originally estimated. In February 2017, the payroll numbers will be revised down to reflect the final estimate. The number is then "wedged back" to the previous revision (March 2015).

Construction was revised up by 40,000 jobs, and manufacturing revised up by 51,000 jobs.  The key downward revisions were for retail trade of -120,000, Professional and business services of -133,000 and education and health of -98,000.

This preliminary estimate showed 224,000 fewer private sector jobs, and 74,000 additional government jobs (as of March 2016).