RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2015 08:41:00 PM
Thursday, June 18, 2015
Greece Update
A timeline from Peter Spiegel Greek debt crisis: Key dates on the road to a possible Grexit. There is very little time left.
Also from the Financial Times: Greece’s defiant youth opt for ‘chaos’ over more of the same
Looking at Payroll Employment and Unemployment Claims
by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2015 04:53:00 PM
A reader asked about the relationship between initial unemployment claims and monthly payroll employment. And if claims are so low, does that mean a surge in employment gains?
There is definitely a general relationship as shown in the first graph. Note that unemployment claims are graphed inverted.
Note: For smoothing, this graph use a 3-month centered average of net payroll employment, and the 4-week average of initial unemployment claims.
Key Measures Show Low Inflation in May
by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2015 12:32:00 PM
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.2% annualized rate) in May. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also rose 0.1% (1.4% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report.
Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey increased to 15.2 in June
by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2015 10:05:00 AM
From the Philly Fed: June Manufacturing Survey
Manufacturing conditions in the region improved in June, according to firms responding to this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. Indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments remained positive and increased over their readings in May. Employment and average work hours increased, on balance, at the reporting firms. Firms reported higher prices for raw materials and other inputs in June compared with reported price decreases in recent months. The survey’s indicators of future activity suggest that firms expect continuing growth in the manufacturing sector over the next six months.
...
The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from 6.7 in May to 15.2 this month. This is the highest reading for the index since December ...
CPI increased 0.4% in May, Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 267,000
by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2015 08:36:00 AM
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index was unchanged before seasonal adjustment.
Wednesday, June 17, 2015
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, CPI, Philly Fed Mfg Survey
by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2015 08:34:00 PM
Off topic: A bizarre sight in California ... crabs attack!
Click on photo for larger image.
Photo taken at China Cove in Newport Beach, CA by Steven.
Report: Socal Home Sales up 5% year-over-year
by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2015 05:55:00 PM
Note: This is the data that used to be released by DataQuick (now part of CoreLogic).
FOMC Projections and Press Conference
by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2015 02:13:00 PM
Statement here, "economic activity has been expanding moderately".
As far as the "Appropriate timing of policy firming", participant views were unchanged on the timing of the first rate hike (15 participants expect the first rate hike in 2015, and 2 in 2016), but "dots" moved down (fewer rate hikes this year and next).
The FOMC projections for inflation are still on the low side through 2017.
Yellen press conference here.
On the projections, GDP for 2015 was revised down, the unemployment rate was revised up slightly, and inflation projections were mostly unrevised.
FOMC Statement: No Change in Policy, Economy Expands Moderately
by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2015 02:00:00 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that economic activity has been expanding moderately after having changed little during the first quarter. The pace of job gains picked up while the unemployment rate remained steady. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources diminished somewhat. Growth in household spending has been moderate and the housing sector has shown some improvement; however, business fixed investment and net exports stayed soft. Inflation continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and decreasing prices of non-energy imports; energy prices appear to have stabilized. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
LA area Port Traffic: Imports Up, Exports Down in May
by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2015 12:17:00 PM
Note: LA area ports were impacted by labor negotiations that were settled on February 21st. Port traffic surged in March as the waiting ships were unloaded (the trade deficit increased in March too), and port traffic declined in April. Perhaps traffic in May is closer to normal now.
Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.
The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).
