RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2015 10:06:00 AM
Monday, June 15, 2015
NAHB: Builder Confidence increased to 59 in June
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 59 in June, up from 54 in May. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.
From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Hits Yearly High in June
Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.2% in May
by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2015 09:29:00 AM
From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production decreased 0.2 percent in May after falling 0.5 percent in April. The decline in April was larger than previously reported, but the rates of change for previous months were generally revised higher, leaving the level of the index in April slightly above its initial estimate. Manufacturing output decreased 0.2 percent in May and was little changed, on net, from its level in January. In May, the index for mining moved down 0.3 percent after declining more than 1 percent per month, on average, in the previous four months. The slower rate of decrease for mining output last month was due in part to a reduced pace of decline in the index for oil and gas well drilling and servicing. The output of utilities increased 0.2 percent in May. At 105.1 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in May was 1.4 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.2 percentage point in May to 78.1 percent, a rate that is 2.0 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2014) average.
emphasis added
NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates "conditions worsened slightly" in June
by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2015 08:33:00 AM
Sunday, June 14, 2015
Monday: Industrial Production, Empire State Mfg Survey, Homebuilder Survey
by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2015 08:00:00 PM
From Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ: Fed Hones Tricky Message as It Nears Boosting Rates
While investors have been hyper-focused on the timing of the Fed’s first rate increase since 2006—many are now looking to September and not this week’s Fed meeting—Fed officials have been trying to hone a tricky post-liftoff message about where rates are going in the longer-run.Monday:
Fed officials are haunted by many events of the past two decades. ... Eager to avoid similar jolts, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, in her past two major addresses, emphasized she expects rate increases to be slow and gradual once they start.
Reports on Greek Tragedy: Meeting Fails
by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2015 07:15:00 PM
Looking grim. The Germans do not understand there is a limit to the cycle of more austerity, and more economic depression ... eventually, in a democracy, the people will say "no".
From the Financial Times: Greek default fears rise as ‘11th-hour’ talks collapse
Update: Predicting the Next Recession
by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2015 11:45:00 AM
Recently there has been more discussion of a recession in 2015. That seems very unlikely to me - I'm not even on "recession watch". I decided to repeat a post I wrote in January 2013. (almost 2 1/2 years ago). This still seems correct - and I've added a few updates in italics.
Saturday, June 13, 2015
Schedule for Week of June 14, 2015
by Calculated Risk on 6/13/2015 08:11:00 AM
The key economic report this week is May Housing Starts on Tuesday.
For manufacturing, the May Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report, and the June NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly surveys will be released this week.
For prices, May CPI will be released on Thursday.
The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.
8:30 AM: NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of 5.9, up from 3.1 last month (above zero is expansion).
Friday, June 12, 2015
Goldman Sachs: FOMC Preview
by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2015 10:22:00 PM
A few excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Kris Dawsey: June FOMC Preview: On Track
Lawler: Preliminary Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in May
by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2015 05:15:00 PM
Economist Tom Lawler sent me a preliminary table below of short sales, foreclosures and cash buyers for a few selected cities in May.
On distressed: Total "distressed" share is down in most of these markets mostly due to a decline in short sales (Mid-Atlantic is up year-over-year because of an increase in foreclosures in Baltimore).
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Homes Sales in May: Big Bounce from “Strangely-Low” April
by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2015 02:33:00 PM
From housing economist Tom Lawler:
Based on local realtor/MLS reports from across the country released thru today, I estimate that existing home sales as measured by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.29 million in May, up 5.0% from April’s “strangely low” (and probably too low; see yesterday’s report) pace, and up 8.0% from last May’s seasonally adjusted pace.
