RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2015 08:33:00 AM
Monday, June 15, 2015
NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates "conditions worsened slightly" in June
From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Sunday, June 14, 2015
Monday: Industrial Production, Empire State Mfg Survey, Homebuilder Survey
by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2015 08:00:00 PM
From Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ: Fed Hones Tricky Message as It Nears Boosting Rates
While investors have been hyper-focused on the timing of the Fed’s first rate increase since 2006—many are now looking to September and not this week’s Fed meeting—Fed officials have been trying to hone a tricky post-liftoff message about where rates are going in the longer-run.Monday:
Fed officials are haunted by many events of the past two decades. ... Eager to avoid similar jolts, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, in her past two major addresses, emphasized she expects rate increases to be slow and gradual once they start.
Reports on Greek Tragedy: Meeting Fails
by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2015 07:15:00 PM
Looking grim. The Germans do not understand there is a limit to the cycle of more austerity, and more economic depression ... eventually, in a democracy, the people will say "no".
From the Financial Times: Greek default fears rise as ‘11th-hour’ talks collapse
Update: Predicting the Next Recession
by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2015 11:45:00 AM
Recently there has been more discussion of a recession in 2015. That seems very unlikely to me - I'm not even on "recession watch". I decided to repeat a post I wrote in January 2013. (almost 2 1/2 years ago). This still seems correct - and I've added a few updates in italics.
Saturday, June 13, 2015
Schedule for Week of June 14, 2015
by Calculated Risk on 6/13/2015 08:11:00 AM
The key economic report this week is May Housing Starts on Tuesday.
For manufacturing, the May Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report, and the June NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly surveys will be released this week.
For prices, May CPI will be released on Thursday.
The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.
8:30 AM: NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of 5.9, up from 3.1 last month (above zero is expansion).
Friday, June 12, 2015
Goldman Sachs: FOMC Preview
by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2015 10:22:00 PM
A few excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Kris Dawsey: June FOMC Preview: On Track
Lawler: Preliminary Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in May
by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2015 05:15:00 PM
Economist Tom Lawler sent me a preliminary table below of short sales, foreclosures and cash buyers for a few selected cities in May.
On distressed: Total "distressed" share is down in most of these markets mostly due to a decline in short sales (Mid-Atlantic is up year-over-year because of an increase in foreclosures in Baltimore).
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Homes Sales in May: Big Bounce from “Strangely-Low” April
by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2015 02:33:00 PM
From housing economist Tom Lawler:
Based on local realtor/MLS reports from across the country released thru today, I estimate that existing home sales as measured by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.29 million in May, up 5.0% from April’s “strangely low” (and probably too low; see yesterday’s report) pace, and up 8.0% from last May’s seasonally adjusted pace.
FOMC Preview: No Rate Hike
by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2015 12:04:00 PM
First a preview from Nomura economists:
The monetary policy statement released at the conclusion of the 16-17 June FOMC meeting should not have substantive changes. We expect the Committee to upgrade its assessment of economic activity, which it described as having slowed in the April statement. The FOMC will also release its summary of economic projections. We expect the Committee to lower its growth forecasts for 2015 given weak growth in Q1. There are some risks for the FOMC’s expectations for the target federal funds rate to be lowered for 2015, but we do not expect major changes for the long-run federal funds rate forecasts. We expect Chair Yellen in her post-meeting press conference to continue to stress the data-dependent nature of future policy moves and that the pace of tightening will likely be gradual once normalization begins.
Preliminary June Consumer Sentiment increases to 94.6
by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2015 10:03:00 AM
Click on graph for larger image.
The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for June was at 94.6, up from 90.7 in May.
This was above the consensus forecast of 91.2.
