by Calculated Risk on 4/22/2015 08:59:00 AM

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.

From the AIA: Architecture Billings Index Accelerates in March

For the second consecutive month, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) indicated a modest increase in design activity in March. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the March ABI score was 51.7, up from a mark of 50.4 in February. This score reflects an increase in design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 58.2, up from a reading of 56.6 the previous month.

“Business conditions at architecture firms generally are quite healthy across the country. However, billings at firms in the Northeast were set back with the severe weather conditions, and this weakness is apparent in the March figures,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “The multi-family residential market has seen its first occurrence of back-to-back negative months for the first time since 2011, while the institutional and commercial sectors are both on solid footing.”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 51.7 in March, up from 50.4 in February. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services.

Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.  The multi-family residential market was negative in consecutive months for the first time since 2011 - and this might be indicating a slowdown for apartments. (just two months)

According to the AIA, there is an "approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending" on non-residential construction.  This index was mostly positive over the last year, suggesting an increase in CRE investment in 2015.

by Calculated Risk on 4/22/2015 07:01:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 17, 2015. ...

The Refinance Index increased 1 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent from one week earlier to its highest level since June 2013. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 16 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
...
“Purchase applications increased for the fourth time in five weeks as we proceed further into the spring home buying season. Despite mortgage rates below four percent, refinance activity increased less than one percent from the previous week,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Chief Economist.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) decreased to 3.83 percent, its lowest level since January 2015, from 3.87 percent, with points decreasing to 0.32 from 0.38 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index.

2014 was the lowest year for refinance activity since year 2000.

2015 will probably see a little more refinance activity than in 2014, but not a large refinance boom.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.  

According to the MBA, the index is at the highest level since June 2013, and the unadjusted purchase index is 16% higher than a year ago.

by Calculated Risk on 4/21/2015 07:59:00 PM

Here is a hint, take the over on existing home sales!

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for February 2015. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for March from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for sales of 5.03 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Sales in February were at a 4.88 million SAAR. Economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales of 5.18 million SAAR.

• During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for March (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

by Calculated Risk on 4/21/2015 04:09:00 PM

Here is a relatively new indicator that I'm following that appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production.

From the American Chemistry Council: Leading Economic Indicator Rises for Fourth Consecutive Month; Reaches Seven Year High

TThe Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), was up 0.1 percent in April, as measured on a three-month moving average (3MMA). Reaching an index of 98.1, last seen in January 2008, the CAB remains up 2.6 percent over a year ago, and suggests gains in business activity will continue into the fourth quarter. ...

“All of the major production-related indicators are up and we might continue to see a strengthening. Construction-related chemistries have been adversely affected by bad weather so far this year, but we expect an improvement as we get further into spring,” said Kevin Swift, chief economist at the American Chemistry Council. “The data on plastic resins and polymers for packaging suggest that retail sales should continue to be strong as well,” Swift added.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in the 3-month moving average for the Chemical Activity Barometer compared to Industrial Production.  It does appear that CAB (red) generally leads Industrial Production (blue).

And this suggests continued growth.

by Calculated Risk on 4/21/2015 12:59:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

NVR, Inc., the nation’s fourth largest home builder with a relatively heavy concentration in the Mid-Atlantic region, reported that net home orders in the quarter ended March 31, 2015 totaled 3,926, up 18.1% from the comparable quarter of 2014. The average net order price last quarter was $375,400, up 2.0% from a year ago. Net orders per active community were up 19.8% YOY. Home deliveries last quarter totaled 2,534, up 14.6% from the comparable quarter of 2014, at an average sales price of $371,000, up 2.7% from a year ago. The company’s order backlog at the end of March was 6,867, up 13.5% from last March, at an average order price of $384,300, up 2.6% from a year ago. The company’s gross homebuilding margin last quarter was 17%, compared to 18% in the comparable quarter of 2014.

NVR gives virtually no “color” on its results or on the housing market in its press release, and does not host a quarterly earnings conference call.



D.R. Horton, the nation’s largest home builder, releases its results for the quarter ended March 31st tomorrow morning before the market opens.

by Calculated Risk on 4/21/2015 10:54:00 AM

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary

Regional and state unemployment rates were little changed in March. Twenty-three states and the District of Columbia had unemployment rate decreases from February, 12 states had increases, and 15 states had no change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
...
The largest over-the-month decrease in employment occurred in Texas (-25,400), followed by Oklahoma (-12,900) and Pennsylvania (-12,700). The largest over-the-month increases in employment occurred in California (+39,800), Florida (+30,600), and Massachusetts and Washington (+10,500 each).
...
Nebraska had the lowest jobless rate in March, 2.6 percent. Nevada had the highest rate among the states, 7.1 percent. The District of Columbia had a rate of 7.7 percent.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the current unemployment rate for each state (red), and the max during the recession (blue). All states are well below the maximum unemployment rate for the recession.

The size of the blue bar indicates the amount of improvement.   The yellow squares are the lowest unemployment rate per state since 1976.

The states are ranked by the highest current unemployment rate. Nevada, at 7.1%, had the highest state unemployment rate although D.C was higher.

The second graph shows the number of states (and D.C.) with unemployment rates at or above certain levels since January 2006. At the worst of the employment recession, there were 10 states with an unemployment rate at or above 11% (red).

Currently no state has an unemployment rate at or above 8% (light blue); Only one state and D.C. are still at or above 7% (dark blue).

by Calculated Risk on 4/21/2015 09:25:00 AM

A few excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle:

How much should we make of the firmer [inflation] recent prints? In our view, not much. The new car and apparel categories are the largest core goods categories, and are also the most sensitive to import prices. Auto import prices have begun to fall over the last few months, and we expect a decline in consumer prices to follow. Apparel import prices, in contrast, only flattened recently and remain up roughly 1% over the past year. This is not so surprising: the dollar's recent appreciation has not been primarily against the currencies of countries from which the US imports clothing, such as China. But the roughly one-third decline in cotton prices since mid-2014 is likely to result in a larger decline in apparel prices, and we expect that the full impact has yet to be felt. Our equity analysts expect apparel prices to fall for the remainder of 2015, and the 12% drop in raw cotton prices in the March PPI suggests further declines could come soon. ...

What about services, which account for three-quarters of the core? Soft health care inflation has been a key contributor to lower core inflation. Slower growth of public payments for health care services and likely spillovers to private insurers suggest that health care inflation is unlikely to exceed core inflation going forward. While health care inflation should normalize from the current sub-1% rate eventually, soft wage growth in the health care industry suggests little immediate upward pressure. Shelter inflation has been among the firmest components of the core, and the low rental vacancy rate suggests this trend is likely to continue in the near term. But we see limited further upside: the National Multi Housing Council's Market Tightness Index is less elevated, and data from REIS indicate that new construction should raise the vacancy rate.

More broadly, we do not view the recent data as a sign that pass-through is now behind us. Pass-through is a two-stage process. Dollar appreciation should result first in lower import prices, and then in gradually lower consumer prices. Similarly, while commodity prices are reflected in consumer energy goods and services prices fairly quickly, core prices then respond to energy costs with a lag. ... [W]hile the first stage of oil price pass-through appears largely complete, import prices likely have further to fall. ...
Overall, we expect that further pass-through will cause year-on-year core PCE inflation to fall by another 0.1-0.2 percentage points by the September FOMC meeting (at which point the July data will be available).
...
Does pass-through disinflation matter for liftoff? ... It appears that Fed officials increasingly view pass-through disinflation as something to be waited out, rather than as something to be ignored.

This is an argument for the Fed raising rates in September (as opposed to June) or even later.

by Calculated Risk on 4/20/2015 08:19:00 PM

CoreLogic released the Southern California report today for March (CoreLogic acquired DataQuick).

The data shows 18,156 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties in March.

That was up 35.6% from 13,650 sales in February, and up 5.0% from 17,638 sales in March last year.

Note: Currently CoreLogic hasn't released the short sales and foreclosure data that DataQuick used to release.

by Calculated Risk on 4/20/2015 05:03:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slide Sideways Again

Mortgage rates figure if they can't be pushing down to new record lows, they might as well pass the time by shooting for different records. This time around, it's the record for FLATNESS! We calculate an average 30yr fixed conventional rate every day based on the sweet-spots on multiple lender rate sheets. This gives us an 'effective rate' to track that typically falls between the two most common rate quotes in the market. For instance, the current computed rate is 3.66% and the two most common quotes are 3.625% and 3.75%. On 9 out of the past 10 days, that effective rate has moved an average of 0.01% per day. In terms of day-to-day rate movement over time, this is about as flat as it gets!

Here is a table from Mortgage News Daily:

Home Loan Rates

View More Refinance Rates

by Calculated Risk on 4/20/2015 11:01:00 AM

Note: LA area ports were impacted by labor negotiations that were settled on February 21st.

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report for February since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average.

Click on graph for larger image.

On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic was up 2.6% compared to the rolling 12 months ending in February.   Outbound traffic was down 2.0% compared to 12 months ending in February.

Inbound traffic had been increasing, and outbound traffic had been mostly moving sideways or slightly down.  The recent downturn in exports might be more than just the labor issues (strong dollar, weakness in China).

The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March (depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year).

Imports were up 36% year-over-year in March, exports were down 20% year-over-year.

The labor issues are now resolved - the ships have disappearing from the outer harbor - and the distortions from the labor issues will mostly be behind us in April.