by Calculated Risk on 4/27/2013 11:21:00 AM

There was some disappointing data released last week. First quarter real GDP only increased at a 2.5% annual rate, durable goods orders fell more than expected, and most of the manufacturing data (regional surveys, flash PMI) were weak.

However, some of the underlying GDP details were decent (but not great). Final demand increased in Q1 as personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased at a 3.2% annual rate (up from 1.8% in Q4 2012), and residential investment (RI) increased at a 12.6% annual rate (down  from 17.6% in Q4).  This was the strongest private domestic contribution (PCE and RI) since Q4 2010, and the 2nd strongest quarter since the recession began.

Unfortunately I expect PCE to slow over the next couple of quarters due to a combination of the payroll tax increase and the sequester budget cuts.

There was also some good news. The new home sales report for March indicated an ongoing recovery for housing, and the existing home sales report suggested an improving market (more conventional sales, fewer distressed sales). Also on housing, LPS reported that the number of non-current mortgages fell below 5 million for the first time since  2008.

Other good news included a drop in initial weekly unemployment claims, and increasing demand for architectural design services (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

Overall this suggests sluggish growth.

Here is a summary of last week in graphs:

• Real GDP increased 2.5% Annualized in Q1

Click on graph for larger image.

The BEA reported that "real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the first quarter of 2013". This graph shows the quarterly GDP growth (at an annual rate) for the last 30 years.

The Red column (and dashed line) is the advance estimate for Q1 GDP.

The second graph shows the contribution to percent change in GDP for residential investment and state and local governments since 2005.

The blue bars are for residential investment (RI), and RI was a significant drag on GDP for several years. Now RI has added to GDP growth for the last 8 quarters (through Q1 2013).

However the drag from state and local governments is ongoing.   I was expecting the drag from state and local governments to end, but this unprecedented and relentless decline in state and local government spending is still a drag on the economy. The good news is the drag has to end soon - in real terms, state and local government spending is back to early 2001 levels.

Residential Investment as a percent of GDP is up from the record lows during the housing bust. Usually RI bounces back quickly following a recession, but this time there is a wide bottom because of the excess supply of existing vacant housing units.   Clearly RI has bottomed, but it still below the levels of previous recessions.

Overall this was a mediocre report and below expectations, mostly due to government spending and trade.  The increase in PCE and RI were positives, but the ongoing government budget cuts continue to slow the economy.

• New Home Sales at 417,000 SAAR in March

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 417 thousand. This was up from 411 thousand SAAR in February. 

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

On inventory, according to the Census Bureau:

"A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted."

Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.

This graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.

The inventory of completed homes for sale is just above the record low. The combined total of completed and under construction is also just above the record low.

This was at expectations of 419,000 sales in March, and a fairly solid report. 

• Existing Home Sales in March: 4.92 million SAAR, 4.7 months of supply

The NAR reports: March Existing-Home Sales Slip Due to Limited Inventory, Prices Maintain Uptrend

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in March 2013 (4.92 million SAAR) were 0.6% lower than last month, and were 10.3% above the March 2012 rate.

The second graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory decreased 16.8% year-over-year in March compared to March 2012. This is the 25th consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory, but the smallest YoY decrease since 2011 (I expect the YoY decrease to get smaller all year).

Months of supply increased to 4.7 months in March.

This was below expectations of sales of 5.03 million, but close to Tom Lawler's forecast.  For existing home sales, the key number is inventory - and the sharp year-over-year decline in inventory is a positive for housing. Overall his was a solid report.

• AIA: Architecture Billings Index indicates increasing demand for design services in March

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.

From AIA: More Positive Momentum for Architecture Billings

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 51.9 in February, down from 54.9 in February. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services, and this was the eight consecutive month with a reading above 50.

Every building sector is now expanding and new project inquiries are strongly positive (down from February, but still at 60.1). Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

According to the AIA, there is an "approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending" on non-residential construction.  This index suggests some increase in CRE investment in the second half of 2013.

• Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 339,000

The DOL reports:

In the week ending April 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 339,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 355,000. The 4-week moving average was 357,500, a decrease of 4,500 from the previous week's revised average of 362,000.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 357,500.

Weekly claims were the lowest in six weeks and were below the 350,000 consensus forecast.

• Final April Consumer Sentiment increases to 76.4

The final Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for April increased to 76.4 from the preliminary reading of 72.3, but down from the March reading of 78.6.

This was above the consensus forecast of 73.0, but still fairly low. There are a number of factors that impact sentiment including unemployment, gasoline prices and, for 2013, the payroll tax increase and even politics (sequestration, etc).  

Sentiment is mostly moving sideways over the last year at a fairly low level (with ups and downs).

by Calculated Risk on 4/27/2013 09:31:00 AM

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Apr 26, 2013.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

The FDIC, as anticipated, released its enforcement actions through March 2013 and closed a couple banks this week. This led to many changes to the Unofficial Problem Bank List, which had 12 removals and six additions. After changes, the list holds 775 institutions with assets of $285.3 billion. A year ago, the list held 930 institutions with assets of $361.7 billion.   

With it being the last Friday of the month, the list had a net decline of 16 institutions and $4.7 billion of assets this April. Notable this month were six removals because of failure as one has to go back to July 2012 to find six or more failures in a month. Also, as noted in the April 5th posting, the cumulative number of removals since the list was first published from action termination now total 356, which is only one shy of the 357 removals because of failure.

The removals from failure were Douglas County Bank, Douglasville, GA ($317 million) and Parkway Bank, Lenoir, NC ($109 million). Douglas County Bank is the 86th bank to fail in Georgia since 2008. The 86 failures in Georgia have cost the FDIC an estimated $11.5 billion.

Action terminations include Reliance Bank, Des Peres, MO ($914 million Ticker: RLBS); Mile High Banks, Longmont, CO ($822 million); Jefferson Bank and Trust Company, Eureka, MO ($504 million); International Bank, Raton, NM ($303 million); Huntington State Bank, Huntington, TX ($236 million); Century Bank of Kentucky, Inc., Lawrenceburg, KY ($108 million); First Bank of the Palm Beaches, West Palm Beach, FL ($90 million); First Bank, Wadley, AL ($73 million); and Mitchell Bank, Milwaukee, WI ($57 million). The FDIC also terminated a Prompt Corrective Action order against Mile High Banks.

The FDIC issued actions against State Bank of India (California), Los Angeles, CA ($787 million); Columbia Bank, Lake City, FL ($196 million); Hartford Savings Bank, Hartford, WI ($187 million); Peoples Bank, Clifton, TN ($131 million); and Mid America Bank, Janesville, WI ($114 million). The Federal Reserve issued a Written Agreement against Freedom Bank of Oklahoma, Tulsa, OK ($40 million). It has been some time since October 2012 when the Federal Reserve last issued a new Written Agreement against a state member bank.

CR Note: The first unofficial problem bank list was published in August 2009 with 389 institutions. The number of unofficial problem banks grew steadily and peaked at 1,002 institutions on June 10, 2011. The list has been declining since then.

by Calculated Risk on 4/26/2013 09:38:00 PM

From E. Scott Reckard at the LA Times: Federal refi program for underwater homeowners hits its stride

Nearly 1.1 million homeowners with little or no equity were able to refinance last year under HARP, which assists borrowers who are current on their monthly payments. That's nearly as many as in the three previous years combined, and the latest figures show that early this year, the pace of these refis abated only slightly.
...
"This is a program that has reached a lot of people — probably more underwater homeowners than anybody thought it would," said Guy Cecala, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance. "It is also one of the few programs that has rewarded people who have stayed current on their mortgages."

The program has been successful because it addressed one of the hangover effects from the housing bust: the millions of Americans stranded in expensive, high-interest-rate loans. These borrowers owed too much on their homes and could not refinance.

The HARP program really took off when most of the representations and warranties associated with the original loans were eliminated (meaning the lenders would not be responsible for defects in the original loans) and after the automated systems were updated in March of 2012. Since these borrowers were current, and Fannie or Freddie already owned the loan, it made sense to allow them to refinance at a lower rate even if they owed more than their homes were worth (this lowered the risk of default for the GSEs). 

The FHFA thought this program would help close to 1 million homeowners - that estimate was too low!

by Calculated Risk on 4/26/2013 06:56:00 PM

From the FDIC: CertusBank, National Association, Easley, South Carolina, Assumes All of the Deposits of Parkway Bank, Lenoir, North Carolina

As of December 31, 2012, Parkway Bank had approximately $108.6 million in total assets and $103.7 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $18.1 million. ... Parkway Bank is the ninth FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in North Carolina.

From the FDIC: Hamilton State Bank, Hoschton, Georgia, Assumes All of the Deposits of Douglas County Bank, Douglasville, Georgia

As of December 31, 2012, Douglas County Bank had approximately $316.5 million in total assets and $314.3 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $86.4 million. ... Douglas County Bank is the 10th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the second in Georgia.

Two more ... it is Friday!

by Calculated Risk on 4/26/2013 01:46:00 PM

From economist Tom Lawler: Selected Results (and Comments) from Large Publicly-Traded Builders for Last Quarter; Consensus is Strong Spring Selling Season, Increased Pricing Power, Though Big Differences in Net Order Growth across Builders

Below is a table showing results on net home orders, home settlements, and average closing sales price for large publicly-traded home builders who have released results for the quarter ended March 31st, 2013. (These results include “discontinued operation”.)

Net order growth varied significantly across builders, to a large extent reflecting growth/margin strategies. E.g., PulteGroup’s average community count last quarter was down 14% from a year ago, reflecting its emphasis on “price, margin realization, and effective management of land assets” rather than growth, though it did increase its planned investments in land and development (see below), while other builders increased their community counts. NVR’s “sub-par” net order growth came despite a double-digit increase in its average community count.

The combined order backlog of these six builders on March 31, 2013 was 30,082, up 42.2% from last March.

	Net Orders			Settlements			Average Closing Price
Qtr. Ended:	3/31/13	3/31/12	% Chg	3/31/13	3/31/12	% Chg	3/31/13	3/31/12	% Chg
D.R. Horton	7,879	5,899	33.6%	5,643	4,240	33.1%	$242,548	$219,481	10.5%
PulteGroup	5,200	4,991	4.2%	3,833	3,117	23.0%	$287,000	$261,000	10.0%
NVR	3,510	3,157	11.2%	2,272	1,924	18.1%	$330,400	$304,600	8.5%
The Ryland Group	2,052	1,357	51.2%	1,315	848	55.1%	$277,000	$254,000	9.1%
Meritage Homes	1,547	1,144	35.2%	1,052	759	38.6%	$314,000	$269,000	16.7%
M/I Homes	1,047	764	37.0%	627	507	23.7%	$284,000	$249,000	14.1%
Total	21,235	17,312	22.7%	14,742	11,395	29.4%	$277,580	$252,391	10.0%

Here are a few select excerpts from some of the company’s press releases (NVR’s press release generally has no “color” comments.

Pulte: ‘“The stronger demand which the housing industry saw throughout 2012 has carried into the spring selling season of 2013. We experienced higher traffic in our communities with buyers feeling a greater sense of urgency given the combination of limited product inventory and rising prices found in many markets throughout the country. Within this environment, and aligned with our focus on generating higher returns, we continue to emphasize price, margin realization and effective management of land assets. Our successful execution of these strategies can be seen in the higher selling prices and improved margins achieved across each of our primary brands.

‘“Given the operational gains demonstrated by our strong first quarter results, and our expectations for an ongoing recovery in new home demand, we have again increased our authorized investment in land and development for 2013 and 2014 to $1.4 billion annually. The incremental investment, which amounts to approximately $200 million in each year, will be made using the defined and disciplined process we put in place more than 18 months ago.”

‘The higher average selling price reflects price increases implemented by the Company and a shift in the mix of closings toward move-up homes which carry higher prices.’

Ryland: For the first quarter of 2013, sales incentives and price concessions totaled 7.9 percent of housing revenues, compared to 10.9 percent for the same period in 2012.

Meritage: ‘"Housing demand is greater than the supply of homes available for sale in many of the areas where we operate, causing home prices to increase," Mr. Hilton explained. "To meet the higher demand, we opened 24 new communities during the first quarter and also grew our active community count to its highest point in almost four years. In addition, our 9.5 orders per average community for the quarter was a 27% increase over 2012 even as we raised prices in many communities. As a result, we received orders for 35% more homes for a 69% increase in total order value compared to the first quarter of 2012. We are pricing our homes and limiting the number of lots we're releasing for sale in some communities to better manage our order volumes relative to our production capacity, and to maximize our profit from those communities."’

M/I Homes: ‘With housing conditions continuing to improve, we are optimistic about our business and look for continued growth.’

D.R. Horton: ‘Donald R. Horton, Chairman of the Board, said, “The spring selling season is off to a strong start at D.R. Horton, with robust demand driving higher sales volumes and favorable pricing, which is reflected in the 14% increase in our average selling price. (LEHC note: this refers to the average net order price; the average sales price on homes closed last quarter was up 10.5% from a year ago.) We are in an excellent position to continue to meet increased sales demand and aggregate market share with 15,800 homes in inventory and 175,000 lots owned or controlled under option contracts, of which 58,000 lots are fully developed.’

by Calculated Risk on 4/26/2013 11:40:00 AM

Final demand increased in Q1 as personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased at a 3.2% annual rate (up from 1.8% in Q4 2012), and residential investment (RI) increased at a 12.6% annual rate (down  from 17.6% in Q4).  This was the strongest private domestic contribution (PCE and RI) since Q4 2010, and the 2nd strongest quarter since the recession began.

Unfortunately PCE will probably slow over the next couple of quarters as the sequester budget cuts ripple through the economy. 

The negative contributions came from less Federal Government spending (subtracted 0.65 percentage points), less state and local governments spending (subtracted 0.14 percentage points) and from trade (subtracted 0.50 percentage points).

Overall this was a medicore report and below expectations (mostly due to government spending and trade).  The increase in PCE and RI were positives, but the ongoing government budget cuts continue to slow the economy. 

The following graph shows the contribution to GDP from residential investment, equipment and software, and nonresidential structures (3 quarter centered average). This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the economy, equipment and software is generally coincident, and nonresidential structure investment trails the economy.

For the following graph, red is residential, green is equipment and software, and blue is investment in non-residential structures. So the usual pattern - both into and out of recessions is - red, green, blue.

The dashed gray line is the contribution from the change in private inventories.

Click on graph for larger image.

Residential Investment (RI) made a positive contribution to GDP in Q1 for the eight consecutive quarter. Usually residential investment leads the economy, but that didn't happen this time because of the huge overhang of existing inventory, but now RI is contributing.

Equipment and software investment was positve in Q1, however the contribution from nonresidential investment in structures was slightly negative (the three month centered average was still positive). Nonresidential investment in structures typically lags the recovery, however investment in energy and power has masked the ongoing weakness in office, mall and hotel investment (the underlying details will be released next week).

The second graph shows the contribution to percent change in GDP for residential investment and state and local governments since 2005.

The blue bars are for residential investment (RI), and RI was a significant drag on GDP for several years. Now RI has added to GDP growth for the last 8 quarters (through Q1 2013).

However the drag from state and local governments is ongoing.   I was expecting the drag from state and local governments to end, but this unprecedented and relentless decline in state and local government spending is still a drag on the economy. The good news is the drag has to end soon - in real terms, state and local government spending is back to early 2001 levels.

Residential Investment as a percent of GDP is up from the record lows during the housing bust. Usually RI bounces back quickly following a recession, but this time there is a wide bottom because of the excess supply of existing vacant housing units.   Clearly RI has bottomed, but it still below the levels of previous recessions.

I'll break down Residential Investment (RI) into components after the GDP details are released this coming week. Note: Residential investment (RI) includes new single family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement, broker's commissions, and a few minor categories.

The last graph shows non-residential investment in structures and equipment and software.

I'll add details for investment in offices, malls and hotels next week.

The key story is that residential investment is continuing to increase, and I expect this to continue. Since RI is the best leading indicator for the economy, this suggests no recession this year or in 2014 (with the usual caveats about Europe and policy errors in the US).

by Calculated Risk on 4/26/2013 09:55:00 AM

Click on graph for larger image.

The final Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for April increased to 76.4 from the preliminary reading of 72.3, but down from the March reading of 78.6.

This was above the consensus forecast of 73.0, but still fairly low. There are a number of factors that impact sentiment including unemployment, gasoline prices and, for 2013, the payroll tax increase and even politics (sequestration, etc).  

Sentiment is mostly moving sideways over the last year at a fairly low level (with ups and downs).

by Calculated Risk on 4/26/2013 08:38:00 AM

From the BEA:

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the first quarter of 2013 (that is, from the fourth quarter to the first quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 0.4 percent.

The increase in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, exports, residential investment, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from federal government spending and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased at a 3.2% annualized rate, and residential investment increased 12.6%.  However equipment and software increased only 3.0%, and non-residential investment in structures declined slightly. 

"Change in private inventories" added 1.03 percentage points to GDP in Q1 (reversing most of the decline last quarter), and the Federal government subtracted 0.65 percentage points (mostly a decrease in defense spending).  State and local governments continued to decline.

This was below expectations of a 3.1% growth rate, but domestic demand was decent with PCE and private investment increasing. I'll have more on GDP later ...

by Calculated Risk on 4/25/2013 08:47:00 PM

An interesting piece from Michelle Meyer at Merrill Lynch: Housing watch: Who are the buyers?

One of the common misconceptions is that the gain in housing demand owes primarily to investors and international buyers. In Q1, investors made up about 22% of sales, which is close to the average since mid-2010. International buyers made up about 2% of sales in Q1, which again matches the historical average over the past three years. Of course, in certain markets investors and international buyers play a bigger role. Investors buy a disproportionate share of distressed properties, making them more relevant in markets with high delinquencies. Similarly, in big cities such as New York, Miami and San Francisco, international buyers account for a much larger share of sales.

Primary homebuyers are still the largest share of the market, by far. However, the constraint for primary homebuyers is tight credit conditions. This has resulted in a greater share of all-cash purchases. Over 20% of buyers who are looking to relocate (turnover) and 60% of second home buyers use only cash. First-time homebuyers are still reliant on financing as only 11% of sales are all cash among this cohort. And of course, the most extreme is investors and international buyers where about three-quarters of purchases are all-cash. All together, about a third of sales are made without financing. As credit conditions gradually ease, which we anticipate, the housing market will open to a wider range of buyers, particularly first-time owners.
emphasis added

Meyer argues a large percentage of the cash buyers are not investors.

Friday economic releases:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the BEA will release the advance Q1 GDP report. The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.1% annualized in Q1.

• At 9:55 AM, Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for April). The consensus is for a reading of 73.0, up from 72.3.

by Calculated Risk on 4/25/2013 05:59:00 PM

This is no surprise ... from the WSJ: Unemployment Hits New Highs in Spain, France

The jobless rate in Spain rose sharply to 27.2% of the workforce in the first quarter, the highest level since records began in the 1970s. In France, the number of registered job seekers who are fully unemployed rose to more than 3.2 million, topping a previous record set in 1997.
...
Last week, the International Monetary Fund joined the U.S. in saying the euro zone should ease up on belt-tightening, arguing it was holding back the global economic recovery and could end up being self-defeating. The head of the European Commission said Monday the policy had "reached its limits."

Maybe, just maybe, policymakers in Europe will get the message that the almost singular focus on deficit reduction has been a policy mistake.