by Calculated Risk on 3/18/2013 11:22:00 AM

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary

Regional and state unemployment rates were little changed in January. Twenty-five states and the District of Columbia recorded unemployment rate increases, 8 states posted decreases, and 17 states had no change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
...
California and Rhode Island recorded the highest unemployment rates among the states in January, 9.8 percent each.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the current unemployment rate for each state (red), and the max during the recession (blue). All states are below the maximum unemployment rate for the recession.

The size of the blue bar indicates the amount of improvement - Michigan and Nevada have seen the largest declines - New Jersey is the laggard.

The states are ranked by the highest current unemployment rate. No state has double digit unemployment for the first time since late 2008 (Note: with revisions, no state had double a digit unemployment rate in Dec 2012 too). In early 2010, 18 states and D.C. had double digit unemployment rates.

Nevada has had the highest unemployment rate in the nation since early 2010 (Michigan led the nation before Nevada).  Now California and Rhode Island have the highest rate.  The unemployment rate in Nevada has fallen very quickly from 12.1% in August 2012 to 9.7% in January 2013.

All current employment graphs

by Calculated Risk on 3/18/2013 10:05:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) decreased 2 points in March to 44. Any number under 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Slips Two Notches in March

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes paused for a third consecutive month in March, with a two-point reduction to 44 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today.
...
“In addition to tight credit and below-price appraisals, home building is beginning to suffer growth pains as the infrastructure that supports it tries to re-establish itself,” explained NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “During the Great Recession, the industry lost home building firms, building material production capacity, workers who retreated to other sectors and the pipeline of developed lots. The road to a housing recovery will be a bumpy one until these issues are addressed, but in the meantime, builders are much more optimistic today than they were at this time last year.”
...
While the HMI component gauging current sales conditions declined four points to 47, the component gauging sales expectations in the next six months and the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers both posted gains, of one point to 51 and three points to 35, respectively, in March.

Three-month moving averages for each region’s HMI score were also mixed, with the Northeast holding unchanged at 39, the Midwest and South posting one-point declines to 47 and 46, respectively, and the West registering a four-point increase to 58.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph compares the NAHB HMI (left scale) with single family housing starts (right scale). This includes the March release for the HMI and the January data for starts (February housing starts will be released tomorrow). This was below the consensus estimate of a reading of 47.

by Calculated Risk on 3/18/2013 08:43:00 AM

From the WSJ: Cyprus Postpones Debate on Deposit-Tax Proposal

The Cypriot parliament is now scheduled to meet Tuesday at 1600 GMT ... The government is also in discussion with its creditors to ease the burden on small depositors. ... The new proposal will see smaller depositors, those with up to €100,000, taxed at 3%; savers with €100,000 to €500,000 taxed at 10%; and those with over €500,000 taxed at 15%, one official said.

The Russians are not happy, from the Financial Times: Russia attacks Cyprus bailout plan

Mr Putin ... was among several Russian leaders to criticise the bailout, which came without consultation with Moscow and could cost Russian depositors up to €2bn ...
...
“We had an agreement with our EU colleagues that we would take co-ordinated action,” Mr Siluanov pRussia’s finance minister] said. “Our role was to possibly relax the terms for [Cyprus] paying back its credit. As it turns out, the EU took action to levy a tax on deposits, without consulting Russia, and for this reason we will further consider the issue of our participation from the point of view of restructuring the earlier loan.”
excerpt with permission

From Bloomberg: Euro Officials Pressing for Cyprus Bank Levy Signal Flexibility

While demanding that the levy raise the targeted 5.8 billion euros ($7.6 billion), finance officials said easing the cost to smaller savers was up to Cyprus. ... “If the government wants to change the structure of the solidarity levy for the banking sector, the government can decide as such,” European Central Bank Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen said today in Berlin. “What’s important is that the planned revenue of 5.8 billion euros remain.”

by Calculated Risk on 3/17/2013 10:25:00 PM

Monday economic releases:
• At 10:00 AM ET, the March NAHB homebuilder survey will be released. The consensus is for a reading of 47, up from 46 in February. Although this index has increased sharply in 2012, any number below 50 still indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

• Also at 10:00 AM, the Regional and State Employment and Unemployment report for January 2013.

Weekend:
• Summary for Week Ending March 15th
• Schedule for Week of March 17th
• FOMC Projections Preview

The Asian markets are red tonight with the Nikkei down 1.9%, and Shanghai Composite down 0.5%.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P futures are down 19 and Dow futures are down 130 (fair value).

Oil prices are down a little with WTI futures at $92.23 per barrel and Brent at $108.41 per barrel.

Below is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are down about 8 cents over the last month after increasing more than 50 cents per gallon from the low last December.

If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.

Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com

by Calculated Risk on 3/17/2013 04:00:00 PM

Update: There is a plan to revise the deposit tax, from Matina Stevis "Exclusive: plans to revise #cyprus deposit tax on wires: under 5% for €0-100k, under 10% for €100-500k, around 13% for €500k+"

A must read account of the Cyprus negotiations by Peter Spiegel at the Financial Times: Cyprus depositors’ fate sealed in Berlin

The European Central Bank had another shock for [Cyprus’s new president Nicos Anastasiades]: the island’s second-largest bank, Laiki, was in such bad shape that it no longer qualified for the eurosystem’s emergency liquidity assistance ... The message ... meant that if no deal was reached, Laiki would collapse ... saddling Nicosia with a €30bn bill to reimburse accounts covered by the country’s deposit guarantee scheme. It was money Nicosia did not have. All of the island’s account holders would be wiped out.

So basically the offer was: accept a levy on depositors or all depositors would be wiped out.

A couple of interesting posts from Pawelmorski, Cyprus: A Brutal Lesson in RealPolitik and Cyprus: What Were They Thinking? and some other notes. "Don’t need a European bailout in a German election year"

From the WSJ: Cyprus Races to Prevent Bank Crisis

Uncertain it has the votes to pass the measure, Cyprus's government postponed an emergency parliamentary session on Sunday that had been called to vote on the levy, while the cabinet petitioned the central bank to extend Monday's bank holiday by at least another day, a move that was likely. ...

Anastasiades—sworn into office just a little over two weeks ago—directly controls 20 seats in Parliament through his center-right Democratic Rally party. He is supported by the Democratic Party with eight seats as well as the European Party with two seats and third environmental party—which has balked at the levy-with another one seat.

To pass, the measure must have at least 28 votes in Cyprus's 56-seat Parliament, with a tie vote going to the government under Cypriot parliamentary rules. But with some coalition lawmakers wavering, others demanding some sort of compensation for deposit holders, and at least one parliamentarian currently out of the country and unable to vote, passage is by no means assured.

A final comment: This points out several problems with deposit insurance (especially since Cyprus doesn't have their own currency). First, if the largest Cyprus banks failed, all depositors would be wiped out (in effect, there really isn't any deposit insurance from Cyprus). Second, in the US, problem banks are restricted on the interest rate they can pay on insured deposits (to avoid weak banks trying to draw in deposits by offering excessively high yields). As a few people have noted, Cyprus banks have been paying very high interest rates on deposits. I found a 5 year jumbo CD yielding 11% per year. To solve these problems they really need Euro Zone wide deposit insurance and to restrict yields on insured deposits held by problem banks.

by Calculated Risk on 3/17/2013 11:34:00 AM

The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday of the coming week.  I expect no policy change following the FOMC meeting, with the Fed continuing to purchase $85 billion in longer-term Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities per month. I also expect the forward guidance thresholds will remain unchanged.

However, in recognition of recent data, I do expect a modest upgrade to the FOMC statement and quarterly economic projections, while recognizing certain downside risks (sequestration budget cuts, Cyprus bailout and depositor levy, Italian election uncertainty, and other international issues).

In the press conference, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will probably be asked about the Cyprus bailout, how the "sequestration budget cuts" impact the outlook, the sustainability of the recent economic pickup, what “substantial improvement” in the labor market means, and about tapering off the asset purchases later this year. I expect Bernanke's comments to be cautious, to argue we still need to see "substantial improvement" in the labor market, to note the downside risks to the economy, and to argue any pickup in inflation is transitory. He will also repeat that the benefits of QE outweigh the costs, and the Fed has the tools to exit the current highly accommodative policy.

Looking at the December FOMC statement, the first sentence will be changed:

"Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that growth in economic activity paused in recent months, in large part because of weather-related disruptions and other transitory factors."

This will probably be upgraded to something like "economic activity has resumed expansion at a moderate pace in recent months".

On inflation, the FOMC will probably repeat this sentence from the December meeting:

"Inflation recently picked up somewhat, reflecting higher energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable."

On the projections, it looks like GDP might be upgraded slightly, inflation will be close to the December FOMC projections, and the projections for the unemployment rate will probably be lowered again.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Change in Real GDP1	2013	2014	2015
Dec 2012 Meeting Projections	2.3 to 3.0	3.0 to 3.5	3.0 to 3.7

¹ Projections of change in real GDP and in inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

I expect the FOMC will revise up slightly their 2013 and 2014 GDP forecasts.  We might see a wider range for GDP in 2013 based on how each participant weighs the downside risks.

The unemployment rate was at 7.7% in February.  This has already fallen to the top range of the December projections, and suggests the unemployment rate projections for 2013, 2014 and 2015 will be revised down.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Unemployment Rate2	2013	2014	2015
Dec 2012 Meeting Projections	7.4 to 7.7	6.8 to 7.3	6.0 to 6.6

² Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

Both measures of inflation will be close to the December projections, and I expect the forecasts for  inflation will show the FOMC is still not concerned about inflation going forward.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
PCE Inflation1	2013	2014	2015
Dec 2012 Meeting Projections	1.3 to 2.0	1.5 to 2.0	1.7 to 2.0

Here is core inflation:

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Core Inflation1	2013	2014	2015
Dec 2012 Meeting Projections	1.6 to 1.9	1.6 to 2.0	1.8 to 2.0

Conclusion: I expect no change to policy at this meeting, but a slight upgrade to the economic outlook while noting the downside risks.  I think it is too early for a change in the size of the monthly QE purchases.    On projections, I expect GDP to be revised up slightly for 2013, and the unemployment rate to be revised lower.

by Calculated Risk on 3/16/2013 06:23:00 PM

Note: Several people sent me links early this morning on the Cyprus bailout (thanks jb and others). This bailout was expected to eventually happen, but the surprise was forcing losses on depositors, even small depositors - and that leads to the question of possible contagion to other distressed countries (Greece, Spain, etc).

For a detailed discussion, see Joseph Cotterill piece at Alphaville: A stupid idea whose time had come

Earlier:
• Summary for Week Ending March 15th
• Schedule for Week of March 17th

Economist Tom Lawler sent me the updated table below of short sales and foreclosures for several selected cities in February. 

In every area that has reported distressed sales so far (two right columns), the share of distressed sales is down year-over-year - and down significantly in many areas. 

Also there has been a decline in foreclosure sales just about everywhere.  Also there has been a shift from foreclosures to short sales. In most of these areas, short sales now out number foreclosures (Minneapolis and Orlando are exceptions).

Another interesting point: short sales are now declining in many areas.  This might be related to sellers rushing short sales last year - before the one year extension of the Mortgage Debt Relief Act of 2007 was announced, and sales declining early in 2013.  Or it might indicate that short sales activity has peaked in some areas (this will be interesting to watch).

	Short Sales Share		Foreclosure Sales Share		Total "Distressed" Share
	13-Feb	12-Feb	13-Feb	12-Feb	13-Feb	12-Feb
Las Vegas	37.9%	29.3%	10.2%	42.0%	48.1%	71.3%
Reno	37.0%	28.0%	13.0%	42.0%	50.0%	70.0%
Phoenix	15.0%	28.1%	13.8%	23.3%	28.8%	51.4%
Sacramento	30.3%	31.9%	13.5%	33.9%	43.8%	65.8%
Minneapolis	11.3%	15.0%	33.3%	41.5%	44.6%	56.5%
Mid-Atlantic (MRIS)	13.6%	16.4%	12.1%	17.5%	25.6%	33.9%
Orlando	22.1%	32.8%	23.6%	27.2%	45.8%	59.9%
California (DQ)*	22.5%	26.5%	17.5%	33.9%	40.0%	60.4%
Bay Area CA (DQ)*	21.4%	27.0%	13.6%	26.4%	35.0%	53.4%
So. California (DQ)*	22.0%	26.9%	15.8%	32.6%	37.8%	59.5%
Hampton Roads					34.9%	37.2%
Northeast Florida					43.6%	49.0%
Chicago					49.0%	53.0%
Charlotte					15.9%	18.7%
Sarasota					27.5%	37.4%
Metro Detroit			37.1%	46.5%
Lehigh Valley PA					21.7%	N/A
Memphis*			27.8%	36.6%
Birmingham AL			29.5%	40.0%

by Calculated Risk on 3/16/2013 01:14:00 PM

Earlier:
• Summary for Week Ending March 15th

There are three key housing reports that will be released this week: February housing starts on Tuesday, February Existing home sales on Thursday, and the March homebuilder confidence survey on Monday.

A key event this week is the two day FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. Note: the time has changed for the FOMC announcement and quarterly news conference.

Also, for manufacturing, the Philly Fed survey will be released on Thursday.

----- Monday, Mar 18th-----
10:00 AM ET: The March NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 47, up from 46 in February. Although this index has increased sharply in 2012, any number below 50 still indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

10:00 AM: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for January 2013

----- Tuesday, Mar 19th -----
8:30 AM: Housing Starts for February.

Total housing starts were at 890 thousand (SAAR) in January, 8.5% below the revised December estimate of 973 thousand (SAAR). Single-family starts increased to 613 thousand in January.

The consensus is for total housing starts to increase to 919 thousand (SAAR) in February, up from 890 thousand in January.

----- Wednesday, Mar 20th -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for February (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement.  No change to interest rates or QE purchases is expected at this meeting.

2:00 PM: FOMC Forecasts This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with the quarterly economic projections.

2:30 PM: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

----- Thursday, Mar 21st -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 340 thousand from 332 thousand last week.  The "sequester" budget cuts might start impacting weekly claims this week.

9:00 AM: The Markit US PMI Manufacturing Index Flash. The consensus is for a decrease to 55.0 from 55.2 in February.

10:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for January 2013. This was original a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index that deserves more attention. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in house prices.

10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for February from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

The consensus is for sales of 5.01 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Sales in January were 4.92 million SAAR.   Economist Tom Lawler is estimating the NAR will report a sales rate of 4.87 million.

A key will be inventory and months-of-supply.

10:00 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for March. The consensus is for a reading of minus 1.5, up from minus 12.5 last month (below zero indicates contraction).

----- Friday, Mar 22nd -----
No releases scheduled.

by Calculated Risk on 3/16/2013 08:30:00 AM

This was another week of solid economic data. Retail sales were strong even after removing the impact of higher gasoline prices. Industrial production is at a new post-recession high and nearing the pre-recession peak.  And the four-week average of initial weekly unemployment claims is at the lowest level since March 2008.  

One negative was a fairly sharp decline in consumer sentiment, but that survey indicated that the decline was mostly dissatisfaction with policymakers and that buying plans were essentially unchanged.

The recent good news - even without any housing data (the key driver) - has led to some upgraded forecasts for Q1 GDP. I've excerpted a from a few research notes below. All of these analysts are upgrading their Q1 forecasts, but are still cautious about Q2 and Q3 due to fiscal policy and inventory adjustments.

From Goldman Sachs:

The US consumer has proven more resilient to the increase in payroll and income taxes than we had expected, and we are lifting our near-term GDP growth forecast slightly. Our tracking estimate for Q1 has already climbed to 2.9% and we are raising Q2 from 1.5% to 2%, primarily via stronger consumption.

Our upgrade is modest for three reasons. First, the growth pickup in Q1 is partly due to faster inventory accumulation. Second, while consumption is holding up better than expected, it is unlikely to be strong in absolute terms. Third, we still expect the “sequester” to weigh on growth in the near term.

From Merill Lynch:

One of the key elements of our below-consensus forecast is that consumer spending will slow amid higher taxes and fiscal cuts. The data continue to challenge this view. February retail sales jumped 1.1% and “core control” sales, which net out the volatile components of autos, building materials and gasoline, increased 0.4%. Coupled with stronger inventory growth, this led us to revise up our forecast for 1Q GDP growth to 3.0%. We are also taking up 2Q GDP to 1.3% from 1.0% to reflect stronger momentum. This leaves full year growth at 1.8%, versus our prior forecast of 1.5%. That said, we are not entirely capitulating on our forecast – we still believe growth will slow in coming months as the sequester kicks in, but from a higher level.

From Nomura:

Incoming data point to faster-than-expected growth in the first quarter. The need to replenish inventories and an apparent delay by households to adjustment to higher tax burdens at the start of the year has lifted current quarter growth tracking to an annual rate of 2.5%. However, it now appears that the 1 March spending cuts (sequester) will be in place until at least the end of September. These new cuts in spending will slow growth in Q2 and Q3 (previously we assumed that only half of these cuts would be implemented).

Here is a summary of last week in graphs:

• Retail Sales increased 1.1% in February

Click on graph for larger image.

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 1.1% from January to February (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.6% from February 2012. Sales for December were revised up to a 0.2% gain.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales are up 27.2% from the bottom, and now 11.2% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted)

Retail sales ex-autos increased 1.0%. Retail sales ex-gasoline increased 0.6%.

This was above the consensus forecast of a 0.5% increase. Although higher gasoline prices boosted sales, retail sales ex-gasoline increased 0.6% - suggesting some pickup in the economy in February.

• Fed: Industrial Production increased 0.7% in February

"The capacity utilization rate for total industry increased to 79.6 percent."

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 12.8 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967).

Capacity utilization at 79.6% is still 0.6 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2010 and below the pre-recession level of 80.6% in December 2007.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

"Industrial production increased 0.7 percent in February after having been unchanged in January". Industrial production increased in February to 99.5. This is 19.2% above the recession low, but still 1.2% below the pre-recession peak.

The monthly change for both Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization were above expectations.

• Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 332,000

This graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 346,750 - this is the lowest level since early March 2008.

Weekly claims were below the 350,000 consensus forecast. 

Claims might increase over the next few months due to the "sequestration" budget cuts, but right now initial unemployment claims suggest an improving labor market.

• Key Measures of inflation in February

This graph shows the year-over-year change for four key measures of inflation: the median Consumer Price Index, 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index, core CPI and core PCE.

 On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.2%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 1.9%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 2.0%. Core PCE is for January and increased 1.3% year-over-year.

On a monthly basis, median CPI was at 2.9% annualized, trimmed-mean CPI was at 2.6% annualized, and core CPI increased 2.1% annualized. Also core PCE for January increased 1.8% annualized.

The Fed will meet next week, and with this level of inflation and the current high level of unemployment, I expect the Fed will keep the "pedal to the metal".

• BLS: Job Openings "little changed" in January

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This series started in December 2000.

Jobs openings increased in January to 3.693 million, up from 3.612 million in December. The number of job openings (yellow) has generally been trending up, and openings are up 8% year-over-year compared to January 2012.

Quits increased in January, and quits are up 13% year-over-year and at the highest level since 2008. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

Not much changes month-to-month in this report, but the trend suggests a gradually improving labor market.

• Preliminary March Consumer Sentiment declined to 71.8

The preliminary Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for March declined to 71.8 from the February reading of 77.6.

This was well below the consensus forecast of 77.7, and very low. There are a number of factors that impact sentiment including unemployment, gasoline prices and, for 2013, the payroll tax increase and even politics (sequestration, default threats, etc).  

In this case, the decline was probably related to both high gasoline prices and policy concerns. According to Reuters, a record 34 percent of those surveyed were negative about government economic policies (sequestration, etc.). Reuters also reports that buying plans were essentially unchanged.

by Calculated Risk on 3/15/2013 09:49:00 PM

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Mar 15, 2013.

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

As anticipated, the OCC released its recent actions this week, which contributed to several change to the Unofficial Problem Bank List. In all, there were seven removals and three additions that leave the list at 801 institutions with assets of $295.6 billion. A year ago, the list held 952 institutions with assets of $379.1 billion.

Actions were terminated against Winona National Bank, Winona, MN ($258 million); Amfirst Bank, National Association, McCook, NE ($237 million); The First National Bank of Wahoo, Wahoo, NE ($206 million); The University National Bank of Lawrence, Lawrence, KS ($71 million); and The First National Bank of Germantown, Germantown, OH ($52 million). The other removals were Pacific International Bank, Seattle, WA ($182 million) and Borrego Springs Bank, National Association, La Mesa, CA ($142 million), which merged on an unassisted basis.

The additions this week were Illinois-Service Federal Savings and Loan Association, Chicago, IL ($136 million); Home Federal Savings and Loan Association of Collinsville, Collinsville, IL ($97 million); and Community Savings, Caldwell, OH ($77 million).

Next week will likely be quiet one for the list.

CR Note: The first unofficial problem bank list was published in August 2009 with 389 institutions. The number of unofficial problem banks grew steadily and peaked at 1,002 institutions on June 10, 2011. The list has been declining since then.