by Calculated Risk on 1/16/2013 02:00:00 PM

Fed's Beige Book:

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicated that economic activity has expanded since the previous Beige Book report, with all twelve Districts characterizing the pace of growth as either modest or moderate. ... Overall, holiday sales were reported as being modestly higher than in 2011, though sales were below expectations for contacts in many of the Districts.

Since the previous Beige Book, consumer spending increased to some degree in all twelve Districts. Across the nation, holiday sales grew modestly compared with last year but came in below expectations in the New York, Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, and San Francisco Districts. ... Citing concerns that consumers will spend cautiously due to ongoing fiscal uncertainty, retail contacts and auto dealers reported a slightly dimmer, though positive, outlook for future sales.

And on real estate:

Existing residential real estate activity expanded in all Districts that reported; growth rates were described as moderate or strong in nine Districts. Contacts in the Boston District attributed their strong sales growth to low interest rates, affordable prices, and rising rents. All Districts reporting on price levels saw increases; New York and Chicago reported only very minor increases. The five Districts that reported on housing inventories all reported falling levels. New residential construction (including repairs) expanded in all but one District of those Districts that reported. Contacts in the Kansas City District reported that increased lumber and drywall costs limited construction, causing a slight decline this period. Hurricane Sandy disrupted construction activity initially in New York, but this has since led to increased work for subcontractors on repairs and reconstruction.

Though a little weaker than residential real estate, reports on sales and leasing of nonresidential real estate are still mostly positive--described as modest on average. The Boston District reported a drop in leasing beyond normal seasonal trends; contacts cited fiscal cliff uncertainty as a factor. Minneapolis and Kansas City reported increased demand and tightening commercial real estate markets. Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Dallas all reported more modest increases in nonresidential real estate activity. Nonresidential construction is weaker than residential, with only slight to modest growth.

This suggests sluggish growth overall, with "moderate or strong" growth for real estate.

by Calculated Risk on 1/16/2013 11:59:00 AM

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (1.9% annualized rate) in December. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.1% (1.1% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) monthly CPI report.

Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers was virtually flat 0.0% (-0.2% annualized rate) in December. The CPI less food and energy increased 0.1% (1.2% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Note: The Cleveland Fed has the median CPI details for December here.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.2%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 1.9%, the CPI rose 1.7%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 1.9%. Core PCE is for November and increased 1.5% year-over-year.

On a monthly basis, median CPI was at 1.9% annualized, trimmed-mean CPI was at 1.1% annualized, and core CPI increased 1.2% annualized. Also core PCE for November increased 1.6% annualized. These measures suggest inflation is below the Fed's target of 2% on a year-over-year basis.

With this low level of inflation and the current high level of unemployment, the Fed will keep the "pedal to the metal".

by Calculated Risk on 1/16/2013 10:00:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was unchanged in January at 47. Any number under 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Holds Steady in January

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes was unchanged in January, remaining at a level of 47 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, released today. This means that following eight consecutive monthly gains, the index continues to hold at its highest level since April of 2006.
...
“Builders’ sentiment remains very close to the index’s tipping point of 50, where an equal number of builders view conditions as good and poor, and fundamentals indicate continued momentum in housing this year,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “However, persistently tight mortgage credit conditions, difficulties in obtaining accurate appraisals and the ongoing stalemate in Washington over critical economic concerns continue to impede the housing recovery.”
...
The index’s components were mixed in January. The component gauging current sales conditions remained unchanged at 51. Meanwhile, the component gauging sales expectations in the next six months fell one point to 49 and the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers gained one point to 37.

The HMI three-month moving average was up across all regions, with the Northeast and Midwest posting a two-point gain to 36 and 50, respectively. The South registered a three-point gain to 49 and the West posted a four-point increase to 51.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph compares the NAHB HMI (left scale) with single family housing starts (right scale). This includes the January release for the HMI and the November data for starts (December housing starts will be released tomorrow). This was slightly below the consensus estimate of a reading of 48.

Housing Investment and Construction Graphs

by Calculated Risk on 1/16/2013 09:28:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production increased 0.3 percent in December after having risen 1.0 percent in November when production rebounded in the industries that had been negatively affected by Hurricane Sandy in late October. For the fourth quarter as a whole, total industrial production moved up at an annual rate of 1.0 percent. Manufacturing output advanced 0.8 percent in December following a gain of 1.3 percent in November; production edged up at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter. The output at mines rose 0.6 percent in December, and the output of utilities fell 4.8 percent as unseasonably warm weather held down the demand for heating. At 98.1 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in December was 2.2 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for total industry moved up 0.1 percentage point to 78.8 percent, a rate 1.5 percentage points below its long-run (1972--2011) average.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 12 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967).

Capacity utilization at 78.8% is still 1.5 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2010 and below the pre-recession level of 80.6% in December 2007.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production increased in December to 98.1. This is 17.5% above the recession low, but still 2.6% below the pre-recession peak.

Both Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization were slightly above expectations.

All current manufacturing graphs

by Calculated Risk on 1/16/2013 08:39:00 AM

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): Consumer Price Index - December 2012

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. The gasoline index declined again in December, but other indexes, notably food and shelter, increased, resulting in the seasonally adjusted all items index being unchanged.
...
The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in December, the same increase as in November. ... The index for all items less food and energy rose 1.9 percent over the last 12 months, the same figure as last month.

On a year-over-year basis, CPI is up 1.7 percent, and core CPI is up 1.9 percent.  Both below the Fed's target. This was at the consensus forecast of no change for CPI, and a 0.1% increase in core CPI.

I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

by Calculated Risk on 1/15/2013 08:30:00 PM

Former Republican Senator Alan Simpson was on CNBC today. Here was the Q&A on the debt ceiling:

Maria Bartiromo: "Do you believe the GOP should be using the debt ceiling as leverage point to get the President to agree to the cuts?"

Alan Simpson: "I think that would be a grave mistake. I don’t think that would solve anything. I know they are going to try it, and how far you go with a game of chicken, I have no idea. But I can tell you … you can’t, you really can’t … This is stuff we’ve already indebted ourselves. If you’re a real conservative – a really honest conservative, without hypocrisy – you’d want to pay your debt. And that’s what this is, they are not running up anything new."

I disagree with Simpson on many issues, but I agree with this point. No honest conservative would vote against paying the bills.   So lets have a vote tomorrow.  Wednesday would be a good day to authorize paying the bills (aka raising the "debt ceiling") and put this nonsense behind us.

The real budget issues are the "sequester" and the "continuing resolution". See my earlier post: After the Debt Ceiling is increased ...  Make sure to check the graph of the deficit as a percent of GDP; it might surprise some people.

Wednesday economic releases:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, Consumer Price Index for December. The consensus is for no change in CPI in December and for core CPI to increase 0.1%.

• At 9:15 AM, the Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for December. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in Industrial Production in December, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 78.5%.

• At 10:00 AM, The January NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 48, up from 47 in December. Although this index has been increasing sharply, any number below 50 still indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

• At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book will be released. This is an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

by Calculated Risk on 1/15/2013 04:00:00 PM

Note: I've been following the Sacramento market to look for changes in the mix of house sales in a distressed area over time (conventional, REOs, and short sales). The Sacramento Association of REALTORS® started breaking out REOs in May 2008, and short sales in June 2009.

Recently there has been a dramatic shift from REO to short sales, and the percentage of distressed sales has generally been declining (the percent distressed increased in December for seasonal reasons). This data would suggest some improvement in the Sacramento market.

Note on seasonal pattern: Conventional sales follow a seasonal pattern with more sales in the spring and summer than in the fall and winter. Distressed sales happen all year, so the percent of distressed sales typically increases in the winter.

In December 2012, 51.5% of all resales (single family homes and condos) were distressed sales. This was up from 47.6% last month, and down from 64.1% in December 2011. The is the lowest percentage of distressed sales for the month of December - and therefore the highest percentage of conventional sales - since the association started tracking the data.

The percentage of REOs stayed at 11.5%, the lowest since the Sacramento Realtors started tracking the data and the percentage of short sales increased to 40.0%, the highest percentage recorded.

Here are the statistics.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the percent of REO sales, short sales and conventional sales.

There has been an increase in conventional sales this year, and there were almost four times as many short sales as REO sales in December (the highest recorded). The gap between short sales and REO sales is increasing.

Total sales were down from December2011, but conventional sales were up 22% compared to the same month last year. This is exactly what we expect to see in an improving distressed market - flat or even declining overall sales as distressed sales decline, but an increase in conventional sales.

Active Listing Inventory for single family homes declined 57.1% from last December.

Cash buyers accounted for 39.9% of all sales (frequently investors), and median prices were up sharply year-over-year (the mix has changed).

This seems to be moving in the right direction, although the market is still in distress. A "normal" market would be mostly blue on the graph, and this market is a long way from "normal".

We are seeing a similar pattern in other distressed areas, with a move to more conventional sales, and a shift from REO to short sales.

by Calculated Risk on 1/15/2013 01:58:00 PM

This is another key market that I've been following closely. According to DataQuick, the "move-up market" is starting to "wake up". From DataQuick: Southland Closes 2012 With Higher Sales and Prices

Southern California's housing market ended 2012 with the highest December home sales in three years, the result of robust investment activity, a record level of cash buyers and more sales gains in move-up markets. ... A total of 20,274 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was up 5.1 percent from 19,285 sales in November, and up 5.3 percent from 19,247 sales in December 2011, according to San Diego-based DataQuick.

A rise in sales from November to December is normal for the season. Last month’s sales were the highest for the month of December since 22,328 homes sold in December 2009, though they were 17.2 percent below the December average of 24,488 sales since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin. The low for December sales was 13,240 in 2007, while the high was 36,865 in 2003.
...
“Last year should also be remembered as the year the move-up market awoke. If these upward trends hold, which requires a sustained economic recovery, we should eventually see more inventory hit the market. More would-be sellers will be satisfied with what their homes can fetch, and fewer people will owe more than their homes are worth, freeing them up to move. The rise in inventory would at least tame price appreciation.” [said John Walsh, DataQuick president]

Last month foreclosure resales – properties foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – accounted for 14.8 percent of the Southland resale market. That was down from 15.4 percent the month before and 32.4 percent a year earlier. Last month’s level was the lowest since foreclosure resales were 13.6 percent of the resale market in September 2007. In the current cycle, foreclosure resales hit a high of 56.7 percent in February 2009.

Short sales – transactions where the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property – made up an estimated 25.6 percent of Southland resales last month. That was down slightly from an estimated 26.5 percent the month before and 26.0 percent a year earlier. However, the number (rather than percentage) of short sales last month was up 7.4 percent from December 2011.

The median price is being impacted by the mix, with fewer low end distressed sales pushing up the median. This is why I focus on the repeat sales indexes.

The percent distressed is still high, but falling with 40.4% distressed. Note the shift from foreclosures to short sales (almost twice as many short sales as foreclosures in December).

The NAR is scheduled to report December existing home sales and inventory next week on Tuesday, January 22nd.

by Calculated Risk on 1/15/2013 12:38:00 PM

As I noted earlier this year, there are three short term fiscal deadlines this year: 1) the Debt Ceiling, 2) the "sequester", and 3) the “continuing resolution". I'm convinced the debt ceiling will be increased, and something will be worked out on the "sequester", but there is strong possibility the “continuing resolution" will lead to a government shutdown.

Here are some comments from Alec Phillips at Goldman Sachs this morning:

A government shutdown -- modest effects but increasingly likely: Congress opted in September 2012 to extend spending authority for six months, until March 27, 2013. This has been done frequently in recent years when lawmakers cannot agree on full-year spending levels. If spending authority is not extended further, the Obama administration will lose its authority to carry out activities funded by appropriations and will be forced to shut down non-essential government operations. This is not as bad as it sounds, for a few reasons: first, only 40% of federal spending relies on congressional appropriations; the remainder is unaffected by a failure to extend spending authority. Second, about two-thirds of that 40% is deemed "essential" and continues even without a renewal of spending authority. This includes defense functions and services "essential to protect life and property." The upshot is that a one-week shutdown of these activities would reduce federal spending by $8bn to $12bn (annualized). Since a shutdown that begins on March 27 would straddle the end of Q1 and the start of Q2, the effect on quarterly growth is hard to estimate but might be around 0.1pp in each quarter.

As Phillips notes, this will not be catastrophic (like not paying the bills), but it will be disruptive. A "government shutdown" is just a stunt since most of the government expenditures will continue.

Note: Much of the data I rely on is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Census Bureau, and the Bureau of Economy Analysis (BEA) and other agencies that will probably be impacted. This includes the monthly employment report, housing starts, new home sales and much more. This data is very useful, and I think the value far outweighs the cost.

Here is a repeat of what I wrote earlier: Question #1 for 2013: US Fiscal Policy

[T]here are still several fiscal issues remaining for this year. The "sequester" (automatic spending cuts) still needs to be resolved, the "debt ceiling" needs to be raised, and a “continuing resolution” needs to be passed or the government will be shut down.

The so-called "debt ceiling" is really just about paying the bills. Here are a few things to know:
1) The House will raise the debt ceiling before the deadline, and the US will pay the bills.

2) The House majority has no leverage on the "debt ceiling"; as I've noted before, the House majority holds a losing hand and everyone knows it. The sooner they fold (and raise the debt ceiling) the better for everyone. As we saw in 2011, there are real world consequences for waiting until the last minute.

3) Those thinking there are no consequences for missing the deadline, I suggest reading the new (January 7th) Debt Limit Analysis by analysts at the Bipartisan Policy Center. From a political perspective, missing the deadline will, in the words of Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, make the "Republican brand toxic".  It would be political suicide, so it will not happen.

Hopefully the House will fold their losing hand soon. If they are planning on taking the country to the brink, and betting voters will forget like after 2011, I think that is another losing bet.

Although the negotiations on the "sequester" will be tough, I suspect something will be worked out (remember the goal is to limit the amount of austerity in 2013).  The issue that might blow up is the “continuing resolution", and that might mean a partial shut down of the government.  This wouldn't be catastrophic (like the "debt ceiling"), but it would still cause problems for the economy and is a key downside risk.

And a final prediction: If we just stay on the current path - and the "debt ceiling" is raised, and a reasonable agreement is reached on the "sequester", and the “continuing resolution" is passed - I think the deficit will decline faster than most people expect over the next few years.  Eventually the deficit will start to increase again due to rising health care costs (this needs further attention), but that isn't a short term emergency.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the actual (purple) budget deficit each year as a percent of GDP, and an estimate for the next three years based on current policy (Jan Hatzius at Goldman Sachs estimates the deficit will 3% of GDP in 2015).  Note: With 7.8% unemployment, there is a strong argument for less deficit reduction in the short term, but that doesn't seem to be getting any traction.

As David Wessel at the WSJ recently noted: Putting the Brakes on Cutting the Deficit

In the depths of the most recent recession, the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30, 2009, the deficit was 10.1% of gross domestic product, the value of all the goods and services produced. Since then, the deficit has declined to 9% of GDP in 2010, 8.7% in 2011 and 7.0% in fiscal 2012. Private analysts predict the deficit will be between 5.5% and 6.0% of GDP in fiscal 2013 ...

Over the next few years the deficit will probably be steadily decreasing as a percent of GDP. We don't want to reduce the deficit much faster than this path, because that will be too much of a drag on the economy.

However, later this decade, the deficit will probably start to increase again, mostly due to rising health care expenditures.  Health care spending is a long term issue and needs to be addressed to put the long term debt on a sustainable path long term.

The key points are: the cyclical deficit will slowly decline, and there is a long term issue, mostly related to health care costs that we need to start to address in the next few years.

Final note: I'm convinced the house will fold soon on "paying the bills" (the sooner the better for everyone), but we might see a government shutdown at the end of March.

by Calculated Risk on 1/15/2013 09:55:00 AM

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for November. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for October. Case-Shiller is currently the most followed house price index, however CoreLogic is used by the Federal Reserve and is followed by many analysts. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic® Home Price Index Rises 7.4 Percent Year Over Year in November

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased on a year-over-year basis by 7.4 percent in November 2012 compared to November 2011. This change represents the biggest increase since May 2006 and the ninth consecutive increase in home prices nationally on a year-over-year basis. On a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices increased by 0.3 percent in November 2012 compared to October 2012. The HPI analysis shows that all but six states are experiencing year-over-year price gains.
...
Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationwide increased on a year-over-year basis by 6.7 percent in November 2012 compared to November 2011. On a month-over-month basis excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 0.9 percent in November 2012 compared to October 2012. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

The CoreLogic Pending HPI indicates that December 2012 home prices, including distressed sales, are expected to rise by 7.9 percent on a year-over-year basis from December 2011 and fall by 0.5 percent on a month-over-month basis from November 2012 reflecting a seasonal winter slowdown.
...
“As we close out 2012 the pending index suggests prices will remain strong," said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Given the recently released QM rules issued by the CFPB are not expected to significantly restrict credit availability relative to today, the gains made in 2012 will likely be sustained into 2013.”

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.

The index was up 0.3% in November, and is up 7.4% over the last year.

The index is off 26.8% from the peak - and is up 9.6% from the post-bubble low set in February 2012 (the index is NSA, so some of the increase is seasonal).

The second graph is from CoreLogic. The year-over-year comparison has been positive for nine consecutive months suggesting house prices bottomed early in 2012 on a national basis (the bump in 2010 was related to the tax credit).

This is the largest year-over-year increase since 2006.

Since this index is not seasonally adjusted, it was expected to decline on a month-to-month basis in November - instead the index increased, and, considering seasonal factors, this month-to-month increase was very strong.