by Calculated Risk on 1/03/2013 04:00:00 PM

Based on an estimate from WardsAuto, light vehicle sales were at a 15.31 million SAAR in December. That is up 13% from December 2011, and down 1% from the sales rate last month.

This was above the consensus forecast of 15.1 million SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate). Note: Some of the increase in November was a bounce back from Hurricane Sandy that negatively impacted sales at the end of October, and sales might have been boosted slightly in December from some storm related bounce back.

This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for December (red, light vehicle sales of 15.31 million SAAR from WardsAuto).

Click on graph for larger image.

Sales in 2012 were just over 14.4 million, up from 12.7 million rate for the same period of 2011. Last year sales were depressed for several months (May through August) due to supply chain issues related to the tsunami in Japan.


The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate.

This shows the huge collapse in sales in the 2007 recession.

Sales were up over 13% in 2012, and auto sales have been a key contributor to the economy over the last three years.  Sales will probably increase in 2013, but not at a double digit rate.

by Calculated Risk on 1/03/2013 02:00:00 PM

It appears several members expect QE3 to end in 2013. Also, all but one member was in favor of economic thresholds for raising the Fed Funds rate.

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, Meeting of December 11-12, 2012. Excerpt:

In their discussion of monetary policy for the period ahead, all members but one judged that continued provision of monetary accommodation was warranted in order to support further progress toward the Committee's goals of maximum employment and price stability. The Committee judged that such accommodation should be provided in part by continuing to purchase MBS at a pace of $40 billion per month and by purchasing longer-term Treasury securities, initially at a pace of $45 billion per month, following the completion of the maturity extension program at the end of the year. The Committee also maintained its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency MBS into agency MBS and decided that, starting in January, it will resume rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. While almost all members thought that the asset purchase program begun in September had been effective and supportive of growth, they also generally saw that the benefits of ongoing purchases were uncertain and that the potential costs could rise as the size of the balance sheet increased. Various members stressed the importance of a continuing assessment of labor market developments and reviews of the program's efficacy and costs at upcoming FOMC meetings. In considering the outlook for the labor market and the broader economy, a few members expressed the view that ongoing asset purchases would likely be warranted until about the end of 2013, while a few others emphasized the need for considerable policy accommodation but did not state a specific time frame or total for purchases. Several others thought that it would probably be appropriate to slow or to stop purchases well before the end of 2013, citing concerns about financial stability or the size of the balance sheet. One member viewed any additional purchases as unwarranted.

With regard to its forward guidance about the federal funds rate, the Committee decided to indicate in the statement language that it expects the highly accommodative stance of monetary policy to remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In addition, all but one member agreed to replace the date-based guidance with economic thresholds indicating that the exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate would remain appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6½ percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. The Committee thought it would be helpful to indicate in the statement that it viewed the economic thresholds as consistent with its earlier, date-based guidance. The new language noted that the Committee would also consider other information when determining how long to maintain the highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. One member dissented from the policy decision, opposing the new economic threshold language in the forward guidance, as well as the additional asset purchases and continued intervention in the MBS market.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 1/03/2013 12:07:00 PM

From Freddie Mac today: Mortgage Rates Start the New Year Near All-Time Record Lows

Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing fixed mortgage rates continuing to hover near their all-time record lows ...

30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.34 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending January 3, 2013, down from last week when it averaged 3.35 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.91 percent.

15-year FRM this week averaged 2.64 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.65 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.23 percent.

The Freddie Mac survey started in 1971 and mortgage rates are currently near the record low for the last 40 years.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the 15 and 30 year fixed rates from the Freddie Mac survey since the Primary Mortgage Market Survey® started in 1971 (15 year in 1991).

Note: Mortgage rates were at or below 5% back in the 1950s.

by Calculated Risk on 1/03/2013 10:05:00 AM

Press Release: Asking Prices Up 5.1 Percent Nationally Year-Over-Year, While Rents Rose 5.2 Percent

In December 2012, asking prices increased 5.1 percent nationally year-over-year (Y-o-Y), marking a huge turnaround from being down 4.3 percent in December 2011. Moreover, not only are prices rising, these gains have accelerated in the last year. Quarter-over-quarter price changes were 0.8% in Q1 (March 2012), 0.4% in Q2 (June 2012), 1.4% in Q3 (September 2012), and 2.3% in Q4 (December 2012), seasonally adjusted.

Asking home prices increased the most in Phoenix, which rose 26.0 percent Y-o-Y in December 2012; however, Las Vegas and Seattle experienced the year’s most dramatic price turnarounds. Both had price gains of more than 10 percent in 2012 after declines of more than 10 percent in 2011. Overall, 2012 marked a huge turnaround year for most local housing markets. In fact, prices rose in 82 of the 100 largest metros at the end of December, compared with just 12 out of 100 in 2011.

Nationally, rents rose 5.2 percent Y-o-Y. Throughout 2012, rent increases Y-o-Y remained around 5 percent, even though asking price increases accelerated and have almost caught up with rent gains at year’s end. Locally, rents rose most in Houston, Oakland and Miami. Rent increases surpassed price increases by a wide margin in Houston, Chicago, Philadelphia, and Baltimore. In contrast, prices grew much faster than rents in Phoenix, Las Vegas, Riverside-San Bernardino, and Sacramento. Overall, prices rose faster than rents in 17 of the 25 largest rental markets in 2012.

“The housing market enters 2013 with a running start,” said Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist. “Price gains picked up steam in 2012, starting with modest increases early in the year and accelerating in the third and fourth quarter. In 2013, rising prices will encourage more new construction and will encourage some homeowners to sell, which will help alleviate the current inventory shortage.”

More from Jed Kolko, Trulia Chief Economist: Asking Home Prices Up 5.1% in 2012, Huge Turnaround After Falling 4.3% in 2011

These asking prices are SA (Seasonally Adjusted) - and adjusted for the mix of homes - and this suggests further house price increases over the next few months on a SA basis.

by Calculated Risk on 1/03/2013 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reports:

In the week ending December 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 372,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 362,000. The 4-week moving average was 360,000, an increase of 250 from the previous week's revised average of 359,750.

The previous week was revised up from 350,000.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.


Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 360,000.


Weekly claims are very volatile during the holiday season, but the 4-week average finished 2012 near the low for the year.


Weekly claims were above the 363,000 consensus forecast.


And here is a long term graph of weekly claims:

Note: There are large seasonal factors in December and January, and that can make for fairly large swings for weekly claims.


All current Employment Graphs

by Calculated Risk on 1/03/2013 08:19:00 AM

From ADP:

Private sector employment increased by 215,000 jobs from November to December, according to the December ADP National Employment Report®, which is produced by Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP®) ... in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The November 2012 report, which reported job gains of 118,000, was revised upward by 30,000 to 148,000 jobs.

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market held firm in December despite the intensifying fiscal cliff negotiations in Washington. Businesses even became somewhat more aggressive in their hiring at year end. Most encouraging is the revival in construction jobs, although the December gain was likely lifted by rebuilding after Superstorm Sandy. The job market ended 2012 on a more solid footing.”

This was above the consensus forecast for 150,000 private sector jobs added in the ADP report. Note:  The BLS reports on Friday, and the consensus is for an increase of 157,000 payroll jobs in December, on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis.

ADP hasn't been very useful in predicting the BLS report, but maybe the new method will work better. This is the 3rd month for the new method.

by Calculated Risk on 1/02/2013 08:49:00 PM

Thursday economic releases:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase and refinance applications index.

• At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for December will be released. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 150,000 payroll jobs added in December. This is the third report using the new methodology, and the report last month (118,000) was somewhat close to the BLS report for private employment (the BLS reported 147,000 private sector jobs added in November).

• At 8:30 AM, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 363 thousand from 350 thousand last week.

• At 10:00 AM, the Trulia Price Rent Monitors for December. This is the index from Trulia that uses asking prices adjusted both for the mix of homes listed for sale and for seasonal factors.

• At 2:00 PM, the FOMC Minutes for Meeting of December 11-12, 2012. This will provide a little more details on the decision of the Fed to set thresholds for inflation and the unemployment rate.

• All day: Light vehicle sales for December. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to decrease to 15.1 million SAAR in December (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) from 15.5 million in November.

by Calculated Risk on 1/02/2013 04:28:00 PM

Since most people are complaining about the fiscal agreement, I'll point out a few positives ... first, remember the "fiscal cliff" was about too much austerity too quickly. The "fiscal cliff" included expiring tax cuts (income, payroll), expiring spending (unemployment insurance, etc.) and the "sequester" (mostly defense spending cuts). The sequester has been delayed for two months, so we don't know the size of the cuts yet, but ...

1) There was an agreement, and earlier in January than I expected!

2) It appears the amount of austerity will not drag the economy into a new recession. I would argue for a different mix of policies, but reducing the amount of austerity was achieved - and this was a key goal for the fiscal agreement.

3) Although long term debt sustainability is still an issue, the deficit is declining right now - and will decline further in 2013. David Wessel at the WSJ wrote about the declining deficit a few weeks ago: Putting the Brakes on Cutting the Deficit

The deficit—the difference between government revenue and spending—is shrinking even before the year-end fiscal cliff or a last-minute compromise to avoid it. In the depths of the most recent recession, the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30, 2009, the deficit was 10.1% of gross domestic product, the value of all the goods and services produced. Since then, the deficit has declined to 9% of GDP in 2010, 8.7% in 2011 and 7.0% in fiscal 2012. Private analysts predict the deficit will be between 5.5% and 6.0% of GDP in fiscal 2013, depending on the outcome of the budget talks.

We still don't know the details of the sequester, but I expect the deficit to be close to 5.5% of GDP this year. Still high, but improving. Unfortunately there are some longer term issues, especially with health care, but in the short term the deficit is moving in the right direction - and will decline further as the economy improves.

4) We don't have to look at those dumb countdown timers for a couple of months.

by Calculated Risk on 1/02/2013 01:30:00 PM

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic® Reports Shadow Inventory Continues Decline in October 2012

CoreLogic ... reported today that the current residential shadow inventory as of October 2012 fell to 2.3 million units, representing a supply of seven months. The October inventory level represents a 12.3 percent drop from October 2011, when shadow inventory stood at 2.6 million units.

CoreLogic estimates the current stock of properties in the shadow inventory, also known as pending supply, by calculating the number of properties that are seriously delinquent, in foreclosure and held as real estate owned (REO) by mortgage servicers but not currently listed on multiple listing services (MLSs). Transition rates of “delinquency to foreclosure” and “foreclosure to REO” are used to identify the currently distressed unlisted properties most likely to become REO properties. Properties that are not yet delinquent but may become delinquent in the future are not included in the estimate of the current shadow inventory. Shadow inventory is typically not included in the official reporting measurements of unsold inventory.
...
“Almost half of the properties in the shadow are delinquent and not yet foreclosed,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Given the long foreclosure timelines in many states, the current shadow inventory stock represents little immediate threat to a significant swing in housing market supply. Investor demand will help to absorb the already foreclosed and REO properties in the shadow inventory in 2013.”
...
Of the 2.3 million properties currently in the shadow inventory, 1.04 million units are seriously delinquent (3.3 months’ supply), 903,000 are in some stage of foreclosure (2.8 months’ supply) and 354,000 are already in REO (1.1 months’ supply).

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from CoreLogic shows the breakdown of "shadow inventory" by category.

Note: The "shadow inventory" could be higher or lower using other numbers and methods; the key is that their estimate of the shadow inventory is declining.

by Calculated Risk on 1/02/2013 11:14:00 AM

In November 2012, private residential construction spending was the largest category for the first time since 2007 - but spending is still very low (at 1998 levels not adjusted for inflation). Note: Residential construction is usually the largest category for construction spending, but there was a huge collapse in spending following the housing bubble (as expected).

The Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased in November:

The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during November 2012 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $866.0 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised October estimate of $868.2 billion. The November figure is 7.7 percent above the November 2011 estimate of $804.0 billion.

Private residential construction spending increased, but both private non-residential and public construction spending declined:

Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $589.8 billion, 0.2 percent below the revised October estimate of $590.8 billion. Residential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $295.3 billion in November, 0.4 percent above the revised October estimate of $294.2 billion. Nonresidential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $294.5 billion in November, 0.7 percent below the revised October estimate of $296.5 billion. ... In November, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $276.2 billion, 0.4 percent below the revised October estimate of $277.4 billion.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.

Private residential spending is 56% below the peak in early 2006, and up 33% from the post-bubble low. Non-residential spending is 29% below the peak in January 2008, and up about 30% from the recent low.

Public construction spending is now 15% below the peak in March 2009 and just above the post-bubble low.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.

On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is now up 19%. Non-residential spending is up 8% year-over-year mostly due to energy spending (power and electric). Public spending is down 3% year-over-year.

All Housing Investment and Construction Graphs