by Calculated Risk on 3/16/2012 01:23:00 PM

Earlier today the BLS reported:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis ... The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in February

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% (1.7% annualized rate) in February. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% (1.3% annualized rate) during the month.
...
The CPI less food and energy increased 0.1% (1.2% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Note: The Cleveland Fed has the median CPI details for February here.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.3%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.4%, and core CPI rose 2.2%. Core PCE is for February and increased 1.88% year-over-year.

These measures show inflation on a year-over-year basis is still above the Fed's 2% target, however on a monthly basis, the rate of increase was below the Fed's target.

by Calculated Risk on 3/16/2012 09:55:00 AM

Click on graph for larger image.

The preliminary Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for March declined to 74.3, down from the February reading of 75.3.

This was below the consensus forecast of an increase to 75.6. Overall sentiment is still fairly weak, although sentiment has rebounded from the decline last summer.

by Calculated Risk on 3/16/2012 09:15:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production was unchanged in February after having risen 0.4 percent in January. Previously, industrial production was reported to have been unchanged in January. Manufacturing output moved up 0.3 percent in February. ... At 96.2 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production for February was 4.0 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for total industry edged down to 78.7 percent, a rate 1.2 percentage points above its level from a year earlier but 1.6 percentage points below its long-run (1972--2011) average.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 11.3 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967).

Capacity utilization at 78.7% is still 1.6 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2010 and below the pre-recession levels of 81.3% in December 2007. Capacity utilization for January was revised up from 78.5% to 78.8%.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production was unchanged in February at 96.2; however January was revised up 0.4%.

The consensus was for a 0.4% increase in Industrial Production in February, and for an increase to 78.8% (from 78.5%) for Capacity Utilization. Although below consensus, with the January revisions, this was close to expectations.

All current manufacturing graphs

by Calculated Risk on 3/16/2012 08:30:00 AM

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The gasoline index rose sharply in February, accounting for over 80 percent of the change in the all items index. ...

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in February after increasing 0.2 percent in January.

I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI. This was below the consensus forecast of a 0.5% increase in CPI and a 0.2% increase in core CPI.

by Calculated Risk on 3/15/2012 08:25:00 PM

Jed Kolko, Trulia's chief economist writes about housing seasonality today: Springtime for Housing

The housing market rides the seasons. Year in and year out, market activity has predictable ups and downs. Sometimes those seasonal patterns are hard to see when longer-term trends (like plummeting housing prices) or one-off events (like the homebuyer tax credit) drive movements in prices, sales and other housing indicators. But seasonal patterns are there, even when they’re beneath the surface.
...
In this post, I look at five measures of housing activity: search activity, asking prices, new construction starts, existing home sales and housing inventory.
...
The chart below shows that sales are typically 29% above their annual average in June and 31% below their annual average in January. Construction starts also swing 25% above and below their annual average over the year. ... Search activity rises 12% above its annual average in March. But inventories stay within 10% of their annual average every month, and asking prices stay within 5% of their annual average every month.

Click on graph for larger image.

This is one of three graphics in Kolko's post. Note that Kolko is using asking prices, and not a repeat sales index like Case-Shiller.

This shows housing is definitely seasonal, especially starts, sales and searches. The other graphics show when activity is high and low for each measure (searches peak in March and stay high through August), and when prices peak by region (earlier in the south, later in the north).

by Calculated Risk on 3/15/2012 05:24:00 PM

From DataQuick: Bay Area February Home Sales at Five-year High

A total of 5,702 new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine-county Bay Area in February. That was up 4.1 percent from 5,479 in January, and up 14.2 percent from 4,991 in February 2011. The year-over-year sales increase was the eighth in a row, according to San Diego-based DataQuick.
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Last month distressed property sales – the combination of foreclosure resales and “short sales” – made up about half of the Bay Area’s resale market.

Foreclosure resales ... accounted for 27.4 percent of resales in February. That was up from a revised 27.2 percent in January, and down from 32.6 percent a year ago.

Short sales ... made up an estimated 23.1 percent of Bay Area resales last month. That was down slightly from an estimated 23.5 percent in January – the high point for this cycle – and up from 20.1 percent a year earlier.
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Last month absentee buyers – mostly investors – purchased a record 26.0 percent of all Bay Area homes sold, up from a revised 25.2 percent in January and 23.4 percent a year ago.

Still over 50% of the market is "distressed". Here is an update to Tom Lawler's table of selected high distressed sales markets including the Bay Area. With the exception of Reno, the distressed share of sales is down from February 2011, the share of short sales has increased and the share of foreclosure sales are down:

	Short Sales Share		Foreclosure Sales Share		Total "Distressed" Share
	12-Feb	11-Feb	12-Feb	11-Feb	12-Feb	11-Feb
Las Vegas	29.3%	26.6%	42.0%	51.6%	71.3%	78.2%
Reno	28.0%	30.0%	42.0%	36.0%	70.0%	66.0%
Phoenix	28.1%	21.1%	23.3%	49.6%	51.4%	70.7%
Sacramento	31.9%	22.1%	33.9%	49.2%	65.8%	71.3%
Minneapolis	15.0%	13.6%	42.3%	47.9%	57.3%	61.5%
Mid-Atlantic (MRIS)	16.4%	14.5%	17.5%	27.2%	33.9%	41.7%
Orlando	33.3%	23.7%	28.9%	49.9%	62.2%	73.6%
Southern California	20.5%	19.7%	32.5%	37.0%	53.0%	56.7%
Bay Area, California	23.1%	20.1%	27.4%	32.6%	50.5%	52.7%

The NAR will report February existing home sales next week on Wednesday March 21st.

by Calculated Risk on 3/15/2012 01:33:00 PM

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic® Reports More Than 860,000 Completed Foreclosures Nationally in the Last Twelve Months

CoreLogic ... today released its National Foreclosure Report for January, which provides monthly data on completed foreclosures, foreclosure inventory and 90+ delinquency rates. There were 69,000 completed foreclosures in January 2012, compared to 80,000 in January 2011, and 65,000 in December 2011. The number of completed foreclosures for the previous twelve months was 860,128. From the start of the financial crisis in September 2008, there have been approximately 3.3 million completed foreclosures.
...
Approximately 1.4 million homes, or 3.3 percent of all homes with a mortgage, were in the foreclosure inventory as of January 2012 compared to 1.5 million, or 3.6 percent, in January 2011 and 1.4 million, or 3.4 percent, in December 2011. Nationally, the number of loans in the foreclosure inventory decreased by 145,000, or 9.5 percent in January 2012 compared to January 2011. The foreclosure inventory is the stock of homes in the foreclosure process.

This is a new monthly report and will help track the number of completed foreclosures.

Note: The sequence is 1) a loan goes delinquent, 2) if it doesn't cure, after several months, the foreclosure process begins (this is called the "foreclosure inventory"), 3) then the foreclosure is completed and becomes REO (lender Real Estate Owned), and then 4) the REO is sold. Sometimes, during this process, the loan will cure or a short sale approved, so not all loans in the foreclosure inventory are future "completed foreclosures".

So when CoreLogic reports "completed foreclosures", they are discussing the number of homes moving from the foreclosure process to REO.

by Calculated Risk on 3/15/2012 10:00:00 AM

From the Philly Fed: March 2012 Business Outlook Survey

The survey's broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, edged slightly higher, from a reading of 10.2 in February to 12.5, its highest reading since April of last year ... The new orders index decreased 8 points, to 3.3, while the shipments index declined 12 points, to 3.5.
...
Firms' responses suggest a slight pickup in levels of employment this month. The current employment index, which has been positive for seven consecutive months, increased 6 points ... and the current workweek index decreased 7 points.

From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey

The general business conditions index was little changed in March and, at 20.2, indicated a continued moderate pace of growth in business activity for New York State manufacturers.
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The new orders index inched down three points to 6.8, indicating a modest growth in orders. The shipments index fell five points to 18.2, revealing a continued increase in shipments, though at a slower pace than in February.
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The number of employees index rose two points to 13.6, and the average workweek index climbed 11 points to 18.5.
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Indexes for the six-month outlook were generally somewhat lower than they were last month, but held at levels that conveyed a high degree of optimism.

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index. The dashed green line is an average of the NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed surveys through March. The ISM and total Fed surveys are through February.

The average of the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys increased slightly again in March, and is at the highest level since April 2011.

Both surveys indicated expansion in March, at a slightly faster pace than in February, and both were slightly above the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 3/15/2012 08:38:00 AM

The DOL reports:

In the week ending March 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 351,000, a decrease of 14,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 365,000. The 4-week moving average was 355,750, unchanged from the previous week's revised average of 355,750.

The previous week was revised up to 365,000 from 362,000.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims was unchanged at 355,750.

The 4-week moving average is near the lowest level since early 2008.

And here is a long term graph of weekly claims:




All current Employment Graphs

by Calculated Risk on 3/14/2012 08:30:00 PM

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and possibly some hints about the trade report for February. LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average.

Click on graph for larger image.

On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic is down 0.9% from January, and outbound traffic is up 0.3%.

On a rolling 12 month basis, outbound traffic is moving up slowly, and inbound traffic is declining slightly.

The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

For the month of February, loaded outbound traffic was up 4.6% compared to February 2011, and loaded inbound traffic was down 12.5% compared to February 2011. (typo corrected, reversed inbound and outbound).

Note: Every year imports decline in February mostly because of the Chinese New Year.

All current trade graphs