by Calculated Risk on 3/15/2012 01:33:00 PM

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic® Reports More Than 860,000 Completed Foreclosures Nationally in the Last Twelve Months

CoreLogic ... today released its National Foreclosure Report for January, which provides monthly data on completed foreclosures, foreclosure inventory and 90+ delinquency rates. There were 69,000 completed foreclosures in January 2012, compared to 80,000 in January 2011, and 65,000 in December 2011. The number of completed foreclosures for the previous twelve months was 860,128. From the start of the financial crisis in September 2008, there have been approximately 3.3 million completed foreclosures.
...
Approximately 1.4 million homes, or 3.3 percent of all homes with a mortgage, were in the foreclosure inventory as of January 2012 compared to 1.5 million, or 3.6 percent, in January 2011 and 1.4 million, or 3.4 percent, in December 2011. Nationally, the number of loans in the foreclosure inventory decreased by 145,000, or 9.5 percent in January 2012 compared to January 2011. The foreclosure inventory is the stock of homes in the foreclosure process.

This is a new monthly report and will help track the number of completed foreclosures.

Note: The sequence is 1) a loan goes delinquent, 2) if it doesn't cure, after several months, the foreclosure process begins (this is called the "foreclosure inventory"), 3) then the foreclosure is completed and becomes REO (lender Real Estate Owned), and then 4) the REO is sold. Sometimes, during this process, the loan will cure or a short sale approved, so not all loans in the foreclosure inventory are future "completed foreclosures".

So when CoreLogic reports "completed foreclosures", they are discussing the number of homes moving from the foreclosure process to REO.

by Calculated Risk on 3/15/2012 10:00:00 AM

From the Philly Fed: March 2012 Business Outlook Survey

The survey's broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, edged slightly higher, from a reading of 10.2 in February to 12.5, its highest reading since April of last year ... The new orders index decreased 8 points, to 3.3, while the shipments index declined 12 points, to 3.5.
...
Firms' responses suggest a slight pickup in levels of employment this month. The current employment index, which has been positive for seven consecutive months, increased 6 points ... and the current workweek index decreased 7 points.

From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey

The general business conditions index was little changed in March and, at 20.2, indicated a continued moderate pace of growth in business activity for New York State manufacturers.
...
The new orders index inched down three points to 6.8, indicating a modest growth in orders. The shipments index fell five points to 18.2, revealing a continued increase in shipments, though at a slower pace than in February.
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The number of employees index rose two points to 13.6, and the average workweek index climbed 11 points to 18.5.
...
Indexes for the six-month outlook were generally somewhat lower than they were last month, but held at levels that conveyed a high degree of optimism.

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index. The dashed green line is an average of the NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed surveys through March. The ISM and total Fed surveys are through February.

The average of the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys increased slightly again in March, and is at the highest level since April 2011.

Both surveys indicated expansion in March, at a slightly faster pace than in February, and both were slightly above the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 3/15/2012 08:38:00 AM

The DOL reports:

In the week ending March 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 351,000, a decrease of 14,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 365,000. The 4-week moving average was 355,750, unchanged from the previous week's revised average of 355,750.

The previous week was revised up to 365,000 from 362,000.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims was unchanged at 355,750.

The 4-week moving average is near the lowest level since early 2008.

And here is a long term graph of weekly claims:




All current Employment Graphs

by Calculated Risk on 3/14/2012 08:30:00 PM

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and possibly some hints about the trade report for February. LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average.

Click on graph for larger image.

On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic is down 0.9% from January, and outbound traffic is up 0.3%.

On a rolling 12 month basis, outbound traffic is moving up slowly, and inbound traffic is declining slightly.

The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

For the month of February, loaded outbound traffic was up 4.6% compared to February 2011, and loaded inbound traffic was down 12.5% compared to February 2011. (typo corrected, reversed inbound and outbound).

Note: Every year imports decline in February mostly because of the Chinese New Year.

All current trade graphs

by Calculated Risk on 3/14/2012 04:16:00 PM

Economist Tom Lawler sent me the updated table below for several distressed areas. He added Orlando and Southern California today.

Lawler noted that the Reno data is NOT directly from the realtor association/MLS. Also "SoCal shares are not MLS based, but are Dataquick estimates based on property records".

CR Note: This could be very useful data over the next several months (and years) as we try to track the impact of the mortgage servicer settlement and to see if the markets are improving. Obviously fewer distressed sales would indicate a less unhealthy market (except it might be due to process delays right now).

For most of the areas (with the exception of Reno), the distressed share of sales is down from February 2011, the share of short sales has increased and the share of foreclosure sales are down - and down significantly in some areas.

Look at Orlando: Short sales have increased from 23.7% to 33.3%, and foreclosures have declined from almost half of sales (49.9%) to 28.9%.

Note: The table is a percentage of total sales.

	Short Sales Share		Foreclosure Sales Share		Total "Distressed" Share
	12-Feb	11-Feb	12-Feb	11-Feb	12-Feb	11-Feb
Las Vegas	29.3%	26.6%	42.0%	51.6%	71.3%	78.2%
Reno	28.0%	30.0%	42.0%	36.0%	70.0%	66.0%
Phoenix	28.1%	21.1%	23.3%	49.6%	51.4%	70.7%
Sacramento	31.9%	22.1%	33.9%	49.2%	65.8%	71.3%
Minneapolis	15.0%	13.6%	42.3%	47.9%	57.3%	61.5%
Mid-Atlantic (MRIS)	16.4%	14.5%	17.5%	27.2%	33.9%	41.7%
Orlando	33.3%	23.7%	28.9%	49.9%	62.2%	73.6%
Southern California	20.5%	19.7%	32.5%	37.0%	53.0%	56.7%

by Calculated Risk on 3/14/2012 01:43:00 PM

Another key distressed market ... from DataQuick: Southland Home Sales Jump in February, Prices Still Down Yr/Yr

The Southland housing market posted the highest number of February home sales in five years as record levels of investor and cash buyers helped spur robust activity under $300,000. ...

A total of 15,573 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was up 7.2 percent from 14,523 in January, and up 8.4 percent from 14,369 in February 2011, according to San Diego-based DataQuick.

The increase in sales between January and February was larger than usual. On average, sales have risen 1.1 percent between those two months since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin.
...
“February sales got a big boost from investors and others paying cash for relatively affordable homes, as well as from an extra day’s worth of sales thanks to the leap year. Without the latter, sales might have been up a bit, but not to a five-year high. It’s just one more reason for us to remind everyone that January and February usually aren’t good months to use for forecasting purposes. The big picture remains one where the bottom of the housing market continues to see much of the action, while move-up activity remains sluggish. Financing is still difficult for many and lots of potential move-up buyers and sellers are stuck because they owe more than their homes are worth,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president.

And on distressed sales:

Foreclosure resales – properties foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – accounted for 32.5 percent of the resale market last month, down from a revised 32.6 percent in January and down from 37.0 percent a year earlier. Foreclosure resales hit a high for the current cycle of 56.7 percent in February 2009 and a low of 31.6 percent last November.

Short sales ... made up an estimated 20.5 percent of Southland resales last month. That compares with 21.1 percent in January, which was a high point for the current real estate cycle, and 19.7 percent in February 2011.
...
Cash purchasers accounted for a record 32.8 percent of February home sales, up from 32.2 percent in January and up from 32.3 percent a year earlier.

Distressed sales are very high at about 53% of the market, but the percentage is down from 56.7% a year ago.

The NAR will report February existing home sales next week on Wednesday March 21st.

by Calculated Risk on 3/14/2012 12:09:00 PM

This is a key distressed market to follow since Las Vegas has seen the largest price decline of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities. Prices, as of the December report, were off 61.8% from the peak according to Case-Shiller, and off 8.9% over the last year.

Sales in 2011 were at record levels, more than during the bubble, and it looks like 2012 will be an even stronger year - even with some new rules that slow the foreclosure process.

From the LVGAR: GLVAR reports increasing home sales, prices, decreasing inventory. First on a record sales pace:

According to GLVAR, the total number of local homes, condominiums and townhomes sold in February was 3,794. That’s up from 3,591 in January, and up from 3,371 total sales in February 2011.

Compared to one year ago, single-family home sales during February increased by 17.8 percent, while sales of condos and townhomes decreased by 5.0 percent.

And on the decline in inventory:

By the end of February, GLVAR reported 6,543 single-family homes listed without any sort of offer. That’s down 18.2 percent from 8,001 such homes listed in January and down 45.6 percent from one year ago. For condos and townhomes, the 1,598 properties listed without offers in February represented an 8.5 percent decline from 1,746 such properties listed without offers in January and a decrease of 45.6 percent from one year ago.

And on the percent distressed:

Meanwhile, 29.3 percent of all existing local homes sold during February were short sales ... Bank-owned homes accounted for 42 percent of all existing home sales in February, down from 45.5 percent in January.

So 71.3% of the sales were distressed, and over half were purchased with cash.

One of the keys is the decline in inventory. Note that the GLVAR reports both total inventory, and inventory excluding "contingent" listings (usually short sales). Total single family inventory was down 15.4% from a year ago, and excluding contingent listings, inventory was down 45.6%!

by Calculated Risk on 3/14/2012 09:07:00 AM

Purchase activity has picked up a little from the beginning of the year. Refinance activity fell, but HARP refinance activity is picking up ...

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The Refinance Index decreased 4.1 percent from the previous week to its lowest level since January 6, 2012. This is the fourth consecutive weekly decline in the Refinance Index.

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 4.4 percent from one week earlier to its highest level since January 13, 2012.
...
“Applications for home purchase increased again last week, coinciding with another strong job market report. Purchase applications are now almost 12 percent above the level one month ago, even after adjusting for typical seasonal patterns. However, this level of purchase activity, adjusted or unadjusted, was essentially unchanged when compared to the same time last year. Purchase activity remains subdued and within the narrow range we have seen since the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit in 2010,” said Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics. “Refinance application volume fell last week. Although rates were unchanged on average, they trended up through the course of the week, and this likely discouraged many potential refinance applicants. HARP volume continued to grow as a share of total refinance volume, reaching roughly 30 percent of refinance activity in the last two weeks. Typical HARP loans had loan-to-value ratios above 90 percent, indicating that lenders are reaching out to underwater borrowers.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) remained unchanged at 4.06 percent ...

by Calculated Risk on 3/13/2012 10:37:00 PM

This is the UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ceridian Corporation index using real-time diesel fuel consumption data: Pulse of Commerce Index Increased 0.7 Percent in February

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®), issued today by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation, rose 0.7 percent in February but was not enough to offset the 1.7 percent decline in the previous month. The most recent three-month period from December to February is lower than the previous three months from September to November 2011 by 3.2 percent at an annualized rate.
...
“The continuing weakness of the PCI is signaling that, perhaps, the recovery in home building has not yet taken hold. The recent improvement in building permits and housing starts may get building going again and therefore, trucking as well, as it has been said that it takes 17 truckloads to build a home. If we get the saws and hammers going again, we will have a real recovery with much healthier job growth,” said Ed Leamer, chief economist for the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index and Director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the index since January 2000.

This index has been weaker than the ATA trucking index and the reports for rail traffic. It is possible that the high cost of fuel is shifting some long haul traffic from trucks to rail (intermodal).
All current Transportation graphs

by Calculated Risk on 3/13/2012 04:44:00 PM

Update from FT Alphaville: Citi fails Fed stress test. They say Citi, SunTrust, Ally and MetLife all failed. Hard to believe BofA passed.

From the Fed: Federal Reserve announces summary results of latest round of bank stress tests

The Federal Reserve on Tuesday announced summary results of the latest round of bank stress tests, which show that the majority of the largest U.S. banks would continue to meet supervisory expectations for capital adequacy despite large projected losses in an extremely adverse hypothetical economic scenario.

Reflecting the severity of the stress scenario--which includes a peak unemployment rate of 13 percent, a 50 percent drop in equity prices, and a 21 percent decline in housing prices--losses at the 19 bank holding companies are estimated to total $534 billion during the nine quarters of the hypothetical stress scenario. The aggregate tier 1 common capital ratio, which compares high-quality capital to risk-weighted assets, falls from 10.1 percent in the third quarter of 2011 to 6.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 in the hypothetical stress scenario. That number incorporates the firms' proposals for planned capital actions such as dividends, share buybacks, and share issuance.

Despite the large hypothetical declines, the post-stress capital level in the test exceeds the actual aggregate tier 1 common ratio for the 19 firms prior to the government stress tests conducted in the midst of the financial crisis in early 2009, and reflects a significant increase in capital during the past three years. In fact, despite the significant projected capital declines, 15 of the 19 bank holding companies were estimated to maintain capital ratios above all four of the regulatory minimum levels under the hypothetical stress scenario, even after considering the proposed capital actions, such as dividend increases or share buybacks.