by Calculated Risk on 11/09/2011 12:11:00 PM

Yesterday Fannie Mae reported their third quarter results. Fannie's REO inventory fell to 122,616 houses from 135,719 at the end of Q2. Fannie's REO inventory has declined for four straight quarters.

Below is a graph of Fannie Mae REO acquisitions (completed foreclosure or deed-in-lieu) and dispositions (sales).

Note the slowdown in REO acquisitions in Q4 2010, and the increase in sales.

Since sales have been higher than acquisitions, REO inventory has been falling. However there are many properties delayed in the foreclosure process, and acquisitions will pick up when the mortgage servicer settlement is reached.

Click on graph for larger image.

If we just looked at REO inventory, we might think that the situation is getting better pretty quickly. However there are a large number of properties in the "90 days delinquent" and "in foreclosure" buckets.

The second graph shows the delinquent and REO buckets over time. The delinquency data is from LPS, and the REO estimates are based on work by Tom Lawler and my own calculations.

The dashed lines are "normal" historical levels for each bucket. The 30 day bucket is only slightly elevated (as of September), and the 60 day buckets is somewhat elevated. But the glaring problems are in the 90 day and in-foreclosure buckets.

There are 4.1 million seriously delinquent loans (90 day and in-foreclosure). This is about 3.1 million more properties than normal. Probably when the mortgage settlement is announced, some of these loans will cure as part of the settlement with loan modifications that include principal reduction, but many of these properties will become REOs fairly quickly.

So even though REO inventory is declining, there are still many more to come.

by Calculated Risk on 11/09/2011 09:00:00 AM

This is the UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ceridian Corporation index using real-time diesel fuel consumption data: Pulse of Commerce Index Increased 1.1 Percent in October, Offsetting the 1.0 Percent Decline in September

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index®(PCI®), issued today by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation, rose 1.1 percent in October after three consecutive months of negative numbers.

Over the past three months, compared to the prior three months, the PCI declined at an annualized rate of 5.8 percent and the PCI remains lower than it was during most of the first half of 2011. “The October data offer some welcome relief from the double-dip fears that were rampant a month ago, but one month does not mean a new trend. Until we get a series of positive months, it remains a she-loves-me, she-loves-me-not economy with bad news followed by good followed by bad,” said Ed Leamer, chief economist for the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index and director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast.

On a year-over-year basis, the PCI was up 1.3 percent in October compared to the -0.2 percent decrease in the prior month. ... Based on the latest PCI data, our forecast for October Industrial Production is a 0.12 percent increase when the government estimate is released on November 16.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the index since January 2000.

This index declined sharply in late summer and this small rebound only offsets some of the recent decline.

Note: This index does appear to track Industrial Production over time (with plenty of noise).

All current Transportation graphs

by Calculated Risk on 11/09/2011 07:57:00 AM

• The Italian 10 year yield is at 7.32% after hitting 7.48% this morning.

• From Reuters: LCH.Clearnet Raises Initial Margin Call on Italian Debt

LCH.Clearnet increased the margin on debt from the [Italy] at a time when its bonds yields are close to levels deemed unsustainable.
...
When LCH.Clearnet Ltd took similar action on Portuguese and Irish debt as bond yields soared, it added to selling pressure on the paper. Both countries were later forced to seek bailouts.

• European stocks are off today with the FTSE down 2%, and the DAX down 3%.

by Calculated Risk on 11/09/2011 07:40:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The Refinance Index increased 12.1 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 4.8 percent from one week earlier to the highest level since August 2011.
...
"Treasury rates dropped last week, as renewed turmoil in Europe once again led to a flight to quality, and 30-year mortgage rates dropped to their second lowest level of the year," said Mike Fratantoni, MBA's Vice President of Research and Economics. "Refinance applications jumped more than 12 percent to their highest level in a month and some lenders experienced even larger increases. As has been the case all year, many refinance applicants are opting to deleverage by choosing 15-year mortgages."
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) decreased to 4.22 percent from 4.31 percent.

The following graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 1990.

Click on graph for larger image.

Although the purchase index increased, the index is still sharply below the levels of June and July - and at about the same level as in 1996. This does not include cash buyers, but this suggests weak home sales over the next couple of months.

All current Existing Home Graphs

by Calculated Risk on 11/08/2011 09:41:00 PM

An apt headline from the Athens News: Sinking with no captain

The European Union’s shattered trust in Greece and interparty wrangling have delayed the announcement of Greece’s new coalition government ...

The humiliating demand by EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn that the next tranche of loans will not be disbursed unless New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras signs a declaration that he will support full implementation of the October 27 bailout threw his party into a tailspin.

The demand came a day after ND issued a nonpaper saying that the party will support the new government’s policies, only to reverse them when the conservatives come to power.

Designed to beat Samaras into complete submission, Rehn’s demand triggered an uproar in the ND party base ...

I don't know if this story is accurate, but if the plan is to default - just say so.

by Calculated Risk on 11/08/2011 05:45:00 PM

Important: REO inventories have declined over the last few quarters. This is a combination of more sales and fewer acquisitions due to the slowdown in the foreclosure process. However there are many more foreclosures coming (I'll have more on this later).

From Fannie Mae today: Fannie Mae Reports Third-Quarter 2011 Results

Fannie Mae today reported a net loss of $5.1 billion in the third quarter of 2011, compared to a net loss of $2.9 billion in the second quarter of the year. The company’s third-quarter loss was driven primarily by two factors: $4.9 billion in credit-related expenses, the substantial majority of which were related to its legacy (pre-2009) book of business; and $4.5 billion in fair value losses driven primarily by losses on risk management derivatives due to a significant decline in swap interest rates during the quarter. These losses were partially offset by $5.5 billion in net revenues.
...
The Acting Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (“FHFA”) will submit a request to Treasury on Fannie Mae’s behalf for $7.8 billion to eliminate the company’s net worth deficit.

The combined REO (Real Estate Owned) inventory for Fannie, Freddie and the FHA¹ decreased to 226,961 at the end of Q3 from 249,501 units at the end of Q2. The "F's" REO inventory decreased 23% compared to Q3 2010 (year-over-year comparison).

¹ FHA is for August, not Q3. The FHA is having system problems and hasn't reported for September yet.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the REO inventory for Fannie, Freddie and FHA¹ through Q3 2011.

The REO inventory for the "Fs" increased sharply in 2010, but may have peaked in Q4 2010. However there may be a new peak when the foreclosure dam eventually breaks - however I expect quite a few modifications as part of the settlement, and probably a bulk REO selling program from Fannie and Freddie.

I'll update the FHA data when it is released, and add the PLS and FDIC REO inventory.

by Calculated Risk on 11/08/2011 04:10:00 PM

From Steve Green at the Las Vegas Sun: Las Vegas house prices continue to slide, down 9 percent from year ago

“In less than four years, more than 100,000 homes in Las Vegas have been lost through foreclosure. That’s 18 percent of our privately owned housing stock: that’s nearly one home in five. And we’re nowhere near finished with foreclosures. In all likelihood, we have another 100,000 yet to go, and at the current rate, that’s another four years,” [housing analyst and SalesTraq President] Larry Murphy said.

According to Case-Shiller, house prices have declined almost 60% from the peak in Las Vegas ... no wonder foreclosure are so high.

And according to Core Logic, there were 426 thousand first mortgages in Las Vegas at the end of Q2 - and 270 thousand of these were in negative equity (about 63%). Another 100,000 foreclosures might be low.

by Calculated Risk on 11/08/2011 12:44:00 PM

Update: Reports are Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi will resign after 2012 budget is approved.

First Greece:
• The Athens News is reporting Lucas Papademos will be the interim Prime Minister and that elections will be held on Feb 19th. "Lucas Papademos, an economist and former central banker, will be the new prime minister of Greece, a ruling Pasok source has told Reuters."

• The EU is asking for all parties in Greece to sign a committment letter. However New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras is balking. From the Athens Times: Samaras sees written committments unnecessary

New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras has maintained his opposition this evening to European demands that Greek leaders sign a letter in support of the October 27 Eurogroup agreements for Greece as a condition for disbursing the 6th tranche of bailout loans.

"There is national dignity. I have already and repeatedly explained why, in order to protect the Greek economy and the euro, the implementation of the decisions of October 26 has become inevitable. I will not allow anyone to doubt my word" he emphasised, in an official announcment.

The European Union has asked Greece to produce a letter promising implementation the bailout deal and have it signed by the outgoing and new Greek prime minister, the finance minister, the opposition leader and the central bank chief, a minister told reporters on Tuesday.

The Greek 2 year yield is up to 105%, and the Greek 1 year yield is down to 221%.

On Italy:
• The Italian 10 year yield is at 6.77%.

• From the NY Times: Berlusconi Loses Majority After Ally Asks Him to Resign

Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi of Italy won a budget vote in Parliament on Tuesday but the tally showed that he no longer has the support of the majority, a huge humiliation that raised the pressure on him to resign in the face of an escalating debt crisis that has hobbled Greece, threatens Italy and could infect the rest of Europe.

• From the Financial Times: Live blog: Eurozone crisis

Berlusconi is due to meet Giorgio Napolitano, head of state, in just over an hour. Napolitano, 86, the most respected political figure in Italy according to opinion polls, is expected to suggest that the prime minister step down in the national interest.

Greece is just a sideshow now - this is now about Italy and the entire EMU.

by Calculated Risk on 11/08/2011 10:00:00 AM

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

The number of job openings in September was 3.4 million, up from 3.1 million in August. Although the number of job openings remained below the 4.4 million openings when the recession began in December 2007, the level in September was 1.2 million higher than in July 2009 (the most recent trough for the series). The number of job
openings has increased 38 percent since the end of the recession in June 2009.

The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This is a new series and only started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for September, the most recent employment report was for October.

Click on graph for larger image.

Notice that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and blue columns stacked) are pretty close each month. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

In general, the number of job openings (yellow) has been trending up, and are up about 22% year-over-year compared to September 2010.

Quits increased in September, and have been trending up - and quits are now up about 11% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations and more quits might indicate some improvement in the labor market. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

All current employment graphs

by Calculated Risk on 11/08/2011 07:46:00 AM

From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): Small Business Confidence Has Minor Uptick

NFIB’s Small-Business Optimism Index gained 1.3 points, nudging the Index up to 90.2. This is below the year-to-date average of 91.1, only slightly better than the average since January 2009 of 89.1.

“Consumer sentiment remains at very low levels and is reflected in the 26 percent of small business owners who cite ‘poor sales’ as their biggest problem,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. ...

Note: Small businesses have a larger percentage of real estate and retail related companies than the overall economy.

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. The index increased to 90.2 in October from 88.9 in September. This is the second increase in a row after declining for six consecutive months.

The second graph shows the net hiring plans for the next three months.

Hiring plans were low in October, but still positive and the trend is up.

According to NFIB: “Over the next three months ... a seasonally adjusted net three percent of owners planning to create new jobs. This is down 1 point from September and 2 points below August, the month that has, thus far, posted the strongest reading for 2011. For some context, in an expansion, this number should exhibit double digit readings."

Twenty six percent of small business owners reported that weak sales continued to be their top business problem in September.

In good times, owners usually report taxes and regulation as their biggest problems.

The optimism index declined sharply in August due to the debt ceiling debate and only rebounded modestly in September and October. This index has been slow to recover - probably due to a combination of sluggish growth, and the high concentration of real estate related companies in the index.