by Calculated Risk on 9/14/2011 11:35:00 AM

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

Although containers tell us nothing about value, container traffic does give us an idea of the volume of goods being exported and imported - and possible hints about the trade report for August. LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic is down 0.9% from July, and outbound traffic is up 0.9%. Inbound traffic is "rolling over" and this suggests that retailers are cautious for the coming holiday season.

The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

For the month of August, loaded inbound traffic was down 9% compared to August 2010, and loaded outbound traffic was up 12% compared to August 2010.

Exports have been increasing, although bouncing around month-to-month. Exports are up from last year, but still below the peak in 2008.

Imports have been soft - this is the 3rd month in a row with a year-over-year decline in imports. This suggests a smaller trade deficit with Asian countries in August.

by Calculated Risk on 9/14/2011 08:30:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales were flat from July to August (seasonally adjusted, after revisions), and sales were up 7.2% from August 2010. From the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $389.5 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.5%)* from the previous month and 7.2 percent (±0.7%) above August 2010.

Retail sales excluding autos increased 0.1% in August. Sales for and June and July were revised down.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales are up 17.1% from the bottom, and now 2.9% above the pre-recession peak.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail sales ex-gasoline increased by 5.7% on a YoY basis (7.2% for all retail sales).

The consensus was for retail sales to increase 0.2% in August, and for a 0.3% increase ex-auto.

This was another weak report for August.

by Calculated Risk on 9/14/2011 07:29:00 AM

The MBA reports: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 7.0 percent from one week earlier. ... The Refinance Index increased 6.0 percent from the previous week, stopping a run of three consecutive weekly decreases.
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.17 percent from 4.23 percent, with points decreasing to 0.97 from 1.04 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. The effective rate also decreased from last week. The 30-year fixed contract rate is the lowest in the history of the survey, with the previous low being 4.21 percent in the week ending October 8, 2010.

The following graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 1990.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

August was an especially weak month for this index. This increase was pretty small, and although this doesn't include the large number of cash buyers, this suggests fairly weak home sales in September and October.

Note: Existing home sales will probably increase in August compared to July (sales are counted at closing), but this suggests another decline in September and October.

by Calculated Risk on 9/13/2011 08:55:00 PM

The Census Bureau released the 2010 Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States report. Here is the press release, the report (long), and the slide deck with graphs. A couple of articles:

• From the WSJ: Income Slides to 1996 Levels

The income of the typical American family ... has dropped for the third year in a row and is now roughly where it was in 1996 when adjusted for inflation.

The income of a household considered to be at the statistical middle fell 2.3% to an inflation-adjusted $49,445 in 2010, which is 7.1% below its 1999 peak, the Census Bureau said.

• From the WaPo: U.S. poverty rate reaches 15.1 percent

The nation’s poverty rate spiked to 15.1 percent in 2010, the highest level since 1993, the Census Bureau reported on Tuesday ... About 46.2 million Americans lived in poverty last year, marking an increase of 2.6 million over 2009 and the fourth consecutive annual increase in poverty.

• And an IMF report that analyzes austerity program, from the WaPo: IMF: Austerity boosts unemployment, lowers paychecks

In a new paper for the International Monetary Fund, Laurence Ball, Daniel Leigh and Prakash Loungani look at 173 episodes of fiscal austerity over the past 30 years—with the average deficit cut amounting to 1 percent of GDP. Their verdict? Austerity “lowers incomes in the short term, with wage-earners taking more of a hit than others; it also raises unemployment, particularly long-term unemployment.”

More specifically, an austerity program that curbs the deficit by 1 percent of GDP reduces real incomes by about 0.6 percent and raises unemployment by almost 0.5 percentage points. What’s more, the IMF notes, the losses are twice as big when the central bank can’t cut rates (a good description of the present.) Typically, income and employment don’t fully recover even five years after the austerity program is put in place ... if multiple countries are all carrying out austerity at the same time, the overall pain is likely to be greater.

Under an austerity program, high income earners usually do better than lower income earners, and profits tend to bounce back faster than wages. Sounds like the current situation.

by Calculated Risk on 9/13/2011 05:27:00 PM

There are two key meetings this week: 1) a video conference tomorrow with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Greek prime minister, George Papandreou, and 2) a meeting of European finance ministers on Friday with Timothy Geithner making an appearance.

Also Greece is expected to resume talks with the trioka - European Commission, IMF and ECB officials - in the next day or so.

From the WSJ: Merkel Quells Speculation on Greek Default

German Chancellor Angela Merkel ... stressed that Germany remains committed to financing Greece through the euro zone's bailout funds until Greece can repair its own finances through austerity measures. She gave a thinly veiled rebuke to German politicians, including her own economics minister and Deputy Chancellor Philipp Rösler, who have suggested in recent days that Greece should be allowed to go bust.

"I think we will do Greece the biggest favor by not speculating much, but instead encouraging Greece to implement the commitments it has made," Ms. Merkel told RBB Inforadio

And from the NY Times: Europe Scrambles to Ease Greek Debt Crisis

[T]he president of France and the chancellor of Germany will hold a video conference call Wednesday evening with the Greek prime minister, George A. Papandreou, officials announced Tuesday, with the prospect of a further restructuring of Greek debt hovering in the air.
...
Timothy F. Geithner [will] make a rare, if not unprecedented, appearance at a meeting of European finance ministers, to be held Friday in Wroclaw, Poland.

The Greek 2 year yield is at 76.7%. The Greek 1 year yield is at 134.6%. Ouch.

by Calculated Risk on 9/13/2011 02:02:00 PM

From Diana Olick at CNBC: Huge Surge in Bank of America Foreclosures

Bank of America is ramping up its foreclosure processing, sending out far more notices of default to borrowers in August than in previous months ... Mortgage and housing analyst and strategist Mark Hanson alerted me to unusually high legal default filing activity ... [BofA responded to Olick]

"It appears the numbers you noted to me this afternoon generally track with our own numbers for key categories. It should be noted it’s driven more in key states like California and Nevada than overall, and certainly the progress we’re seeing is limited to non-judicial states. Judicial states continue to move very slowly, with key states like New Jersey only beginning to start processing foreclosures again this month."

RealtyTrac ... is also confirming a surge in overall notices of default in its August numbers

As Olick notes, this might be a short term pickup. However other servicers have told me they are staffing up - and we will probably see foreclosure activity pickup late this year or early in 2012.

by Calculated Risk on 9/13/2011 10:15:00 AM

CoreLogic released the Q2 2011 negative equity report today.

CoreLogic ... released Q2 negative equity data showing that 10.9 million, or 22.5 percent, of all residential properties with a mortgage were in negative equity at the end of the second quarter of 2011, down very slightly from 22.7 percent in the first quarter. An additional 2.4 million borrowers had less than five percent equity, referred to as near-negative equity, in the second quarter. Together, negative equity and near-negative equity mortgages accounted for 27.5 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage nationwide. The new report also shows that nearly three-quarters of homeowners in negative equity situations are also paying higher, above-market interest on their mortgages.

Here are a couple of graphs from the report:

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the distribution of negative equity. The more negative equity, the more at risk the homeowner is to losing their home.

Close to 10% of homeowners with mortgages have more than 25% negative equity. This is trending down slowly - the decline is apparently mostly due to homes lost in foreclosure.

The second graph from CoreLogic shows the cumulative distribution of mortgage rates for borrowers with positive and negative equity.

From CoreLogic: "Negative equity significantly limits the ability of borrowers to capture the benefit of the low-rate environment. There are nearly 28 million outstanding mortgages that have above market rates and are in theory refinanceable¹. Twenty million borrowers with positive equity, or 53 percent of all above-water borrowers, have above market rates. Eight million borrowers with negative equity, or nearly 75 percent of all underwater borrowers, have above market rates."

¹ "The definition of an above market rate was 5.1%, which is roughly the current mortgage rate of 4.1% plus a 100 basis point refinance trigger."

The third graph shows the break down of negative equity by state. Note: Data not available for Louisiana, Maine, Mississippi, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming.

From CoreLogic: "Nevada had the highest negative equity percentage with 60 percent of all of its mortgaged properties underwater, followed by Arizona (49 percent), Florida (45 percent), Michigan (36 percent) and California (30 percent).

The negative equity share in the hardest hit states has improved. Over the past year, the average negative equity share for the top five states has declined from 41 percent to 38 percent. Nevada had the largest decline over the last year, with the negative equity share dropping from 68 percent to 60 percent. The reason for the Nevada decline is the high number of foreclosures that led to lower numbers of remaining negative equity borrowers."

by Calculated Risk on 9/13/2011 09:00:00 AM

This is the UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ceridian Corporation index using real-time diesel fuel consumption data: Pulse of Commerce Index Remains in Idle – Down 1.4 Percent in August

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI), issued today by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation fell 1.4 percent in August on a seasonally and workday adjusted basis, following a 0.2 percent decline in July.

“The August number supports the pattern of sluggish economic growth coming out of a recession, which is something that we’ve seen in the past. What we’re experiencing is the ‘new normal,’ where the U.S. economy will continue to stumble forward until a new growth engine is identified. Essentially, the economy is in need of an innovation burst.” [said Ed Leamer, chief economist for the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index and director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast.]

“The PCI continues to prove its value in providing insight into the U.S. economy. While previously being flat, recent, seven-day-average diesel volumes have dropped by 2 percent from July 23 to August 19, excluding the holiday impact. However, the last week of August suggests some improvement.”

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the index since January 2000.

The weakness in the PCI over the last several months called for a zero percent change in the July Industrial Production – the initial release of 0.9% was stronger, although subject to revisions. Due to the continued weakness evident in the PCI, the forecast for August Industrial Production is a 0.26 percent decline when released on September 15.
...
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ is based on real-time diesel fuel consumption data for over the road trucking ...

This index has declined for two consecutive months after increasing slightly earlier in the year. The little bit of good news was the reported improvement during the last week of August.

Note: This index does appear to track Industrial Production over time (with plenty of noise).

by Calculated Risk on 9/13/2011 07:54:00 AM

From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): Small Business Confidence Takes Huge Hit: Optimism Index Now in Decline for Six Months Running

Confidence in the economy among small-business owners tumbled in August, as NFIB’s monthly Small-Business Optimism Index dropped a whopping 1.8 points, settling at a disturbingly low 88.1. The Index has now been in decline for a full six months. Unlike previous months, August’s decline comes in the immediate aftermath of the debt ceiling debate ...

Sales remain the largest problem for small firms—a full quarter identifying “poor sales” as their top business problem.

Note: Small businesses have a larger percentage of real estate and retail related companies than the overall economy.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The first graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. The index decreased to 88.1 in August from 89.9 in July.

Optimism has declined for six consecutive months now.

The second graph shows the net hiring plans for the next three months.

Hiring plans were still low in August, but positive and improving.

According to NFIB: “While the readings remain historically weak, we can find a grain of encouragement as we look at hiring prospects. Over the next three months, 11 percent plan to increase employment (up 1 point), and 12 percent plan to reduce their workforce (also up 1 point), yielding a seasonally adjusted net 5 percent of owners planning to create new jobs, which is a 3 point improvement over July."

Weak sales is still the top business problem with 25 percent of the owners reporting that weak sales continued to be their top business problem in August.

In good times, owners usually report taxes and regulation as their biggest problems.

The optimism index declined sharply in August due to the debt ceiling debate. This index has been generally slow to recover and has declined for six consecutive months - probably due to a combination of the recent economic weakness, and also the high concentration of real estate related companies in the index.

by Calculated Risk on 9/12/2011 11:22:00 PM

From the LA Times: Europe fears Greece is heading inexorably toward default

European politicians, who denied for months that bankruptcy was an option as Greece struggled to bring down an enormous budget deficit, are now beginning to acknowledge the possibility.

Nervous investors appear to increasingly believe default is just around the corner. They have withdrawn billions of dollars from Europe's stock markets over the last few weeks.
...
Banks in France and Germany scrambled to assure investors that they could survive their exposure to sovereign debt

And a discussion of the German views from Der Spiegel: Germany Plans for Possible Greek Default

The tougher talk is much more than show. The rest of Europe is losing patience with Athens. ...

The disappointment runs particularly deep in Berlin, where the government's crisis-management policy has clearly been going around in circles. In the beginning, the chancellor said that the Greeks ought to help themselves out of their own crisis. Then came the first and subsequently the second aid package. The new approach, the government said, was to rescue Greece so that the other debtor nations would be spared.

Now the Germans have come full circle, and the prevailing emotion is fear of a never-ending debacle in Athens. "Enough is enough," says one senior government official ... With a mixture of resignation and fatalism, Merkel and Schäuble are facing up to the inevitable and thinking the previously unthinkable: Greece is going bankrupt, and not even its withdrawal from the monetary union can be ruled out anymore.
...
The planning for the day of reckoning is already underway, in departments at the Finance Ministry in Berlin as well as in task forces at the EU in Brussels. German Finance Ministry officials hope that a Greek bankruptcy would be manageable, as long as European politicians keep their cool and the bailout funds are increased as planned.