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Saturday, May 15, 2010

Too many homes? Build more ...

by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2010 02:52:00 PM

From David Streitfeld in the NY Times: In City of Homes That Sit Empty, Building Booms

Home prices in Las Vegas are down by 60 percent from 2006 in one of the steepest descents in modern times. There are 9,517 spanking new houses sitting empty. An additional 5,600 homes were repossessed by lenders in the first three months of this year and could soon be for sale.

Yet builders here are putting up 1,100 homes, and they are frantically buying lots for even more.

Las Vegas is trying to recover by building what it does not need.
...
Some of the demand is coming from families that are getting shut out of the bidding for foreclosures by syndicates that pay in cash, and some is from investors who are back on the prowl.

Land and labor costs have fallen significantly, so the newest homes are competitively priced. Some of the boom-era homes, meanwhile, are in developments that feel like ghost towns. And many Americans will always believe the latest model of something is their only option, an attitude builders are doing their utmost to reinforce.
Many buyers have been frustrated recently trying to buy homes, especially at the low end. They are competing with cash buyers, or they have to endure endless delays with short sales (although the process is improving), and meanwhile the lenders have been slow to foreclose. This has created an opportunity for builders - even though there is no need for new supply in places like Las Vegas.

Negative Equity by State Click on image for larger graph in new window.

This graph (from this post earlier this week) shows the negative equity and near negative equity by state. The graph is based on the data in the First American CoreLogic Q1 2010 negative equity report this week.

From the report:
  • Negative equity continues to be concentrated in five states: Nevada, which had the highest percentage negative equity with 70 percent of all of its mortgaged properties underwater, followed by Arizona (51 percent), Florida (48 percent), Michigan (39 percent) and California (34 percent). Las Vegas remains the top ranked CBSA with 75% of mortgaged properties being underwater, followed by Stockton (65%), Modesto (62%), Vallejo-Fairfield (60%) and Phoenix (58%).
  • The good news for buyers is there are probably many more distressed sales coming.

    ECB's Trichet: "Most difficult situation" since World War

    by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2010 11:30:00 AM

    From an intereview in Der Spiegel with European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet: A 'Quantum Leap' in Governance of the Euro Zone Is Needed. A few excerpts:

    Trichet: "[I]t is clear that since September 2008 we have been facing the most difficult situation since the Second World War -- perhaps even since the First World War. We have experienced -- and are experiencing -- truly dramatic times."
    On buying government bonds of EU countries:
    Trichet: Our measures are explicitly authorized by the (EU) treaty. We are not embarking on quantitative easing. We are helping some market segments to function more normally. And, as I said, we will take back all the additional liquidity that we will supply in our Securities Markets Program.
    On countries leaving the euro:
    SPIEGEL: Would it not be good if a country such as Greece were able to leave the euro area?

    Trichet: No. This is excluded. If a country joins the euro area, it shares a common destiny with the other members. There is a need for a quantum leap in the governance of the euro area. There need to be major improvements to prevent bad behavior, to ensure effective implementation of the recommendations made by "peers" and to ensure real and effective sanctions in case of breaches (of the Stability and Growth Pact).

    Déjà vu: From AAA to Junk

    by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2010 08:50:00 AM

    From Bloomberg: S&P Cuts to Junk Mortgage Bonds It Rated AAA in 2009 (ht Bob_in_MA, Justin)

    Standard & Poor’s cut to junk the ratings on certain securities, backed by U.S. mortgage bonds, that it granted AAA grades when they were created last year ...

    The reductions were among downgrades to 308 classes of so- called re-remics, or re-securitizations, created from 2005 through 2009 ...

    “The downgrades reflect our assessment of the significant deterioration in performance of the loans backing the underlying certificates,” S&P analysts Cesar Romero and Terry G. Osterweil said in the statement.
    Rated AAA last year and now junk ... ratings: what are they good for?

    Friday, May 14, 2010

    Unofficial Problem Bank List May 14, 2010

    by Calculated Risk on 5/14/2010 11:34:00 PM

    This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

    Here is the unofficial problem bank list for May 14, 2010.

    Changes and comments from surferdude808:

    It was a quiet week for the Unofficial Problem Bank List as there were only three removals because of failure and one addition.

    The list includes 725 institutions with aggregate assets of $363 billion. The failures include Midwest Bank and Trust Company ($3.4 billion Ticker: MBHI), New Liberty Bank ($114 million), and Satilla Community Bank ($146 million). The sole addition is Monarch Community Bank, Coldwater, MI ($290 million Ticker: MCBF).

    There was one name and location change with Ohio Legacy Bank, N.A., Wooster, OH now known as Premier Bank & Trust, N.A., North Canton, OH. We had anticipated for the OCC to release its actions for April 2010 but it looks like that will happen by next Friday.
    CR Note: Midwest was a TARP recipient of $89.4 million - and usually when a bank is seized, the Treasury (aka taxpayers) lose the entire investment.

    Daily Show: Hoarders

    by Calculated Risk on 5/14/2010 09:28:00 PM

    A little Friday evening humor from Jon Stewart at the Daily Show: Hoarders

    The Daily Show With Jon StewartMon - Thurs 11p / 10c
    Hoarders
    www.thedailyshow.com

    Bank Failures #71 & #72: Missouri & Illinois

    by Calculated Risk on 5/14/2010 07:10:00 PM

    In the "Show Me State"
    Southwest Community Bank
    Has been shown the door.


    Midwest Bank and Trust
    A bailout recipient
    TARP lifeline squandered

    by Soylent Green is People

    From the FDIC: Simmons First National Bank, Pine Bluff, Arkansas, Assumes All of the Deposits of Southwest Community Bank, Springfield, Missouri
    As of March 31, 2010, Southwest Community Bank had approximately $96.6 million in total assets and $102.5 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $29.0 million. ... Southwest Community Bank is the 71st FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the fourth in Missouri.
    From the FDIC: Firstmerit Bank, National Association, Akron, Ohio, Assumes All of the Deposits of Midwest Bank and Trust Company, Elmwood Park, Illinois
    As of March 31, 2010, Midwest Bank and Trust Company had approximately $3.17 billion in total assets and $2.42 billion in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $216.4 million. ... Midwest Bank and Trust Company is the 72nd FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the eleventh in Illinois
    Midwest was a fair size bank ... that makes four today.

    Bank Failure #70: New Liberty Bank, Plymouth, Michigan

    by Calculated Risk on 5/14/2010 06:10:00 PM

    New Liberty Bank
    Old liberties taken
    Asset absconding

    by Soylent Green is People

    From FDIC: Bank of Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, Michigan, Assumes All of the Deposits of New Liberty Bank, Plymouth, Michigan
    As of March 31, 2010, New Liberty Bank had approximately $109.1 million in total assets and $101.8 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $25.0 million. ... New Liberty Bank is the 70th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the third in Michigan.
    Two down ...

    Bank Failure #69: Satilla Community Bank, Saint Marys, Georgia

    by Calculated Risk on 5/14/2010 05:10:00 PM

    Good-bye Satilla
    One more Georgia bank wipe-out
    B F F begins

    by Soylent Green is People

    From the FDIC: Ameris Bank, Moultrie, Georgia, Assumes All of the Deposits of Satilla Community Bank, Saint Marys, Georgia
    As of March 31, 2010, Satilla Community Bank had approximately $135.7 million in total assets and $134.0 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $31.3 million. ... Satilla Community Bank is the 69th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the eighth in Georgia.
    Friday is here.

    Schwarzenegger: Eliminate Welfare and most Child Care, reduce Health Care

    by Calculated Risk on 5/14/2010 04:26:00 PM

    From the SacBee: Schwarzenegger budget would eliminate welfare

    Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger asked lawmakers Friday to eliminate the state's welfare program starting in October and dramatically scale back in-home care for elderly and disabled as part of his May budget revision to close a $19.1 billion deficit.

    [Schwarzenegger] also proposed cuts to state worker compensation.
    ...
    Schwarzenegger proposed eliminating state-subsidized child care for all but preschoolers ...
    From the LA Times: Schwarzenegger unveils austere budget plan
    Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger outlined a stark vision Friday of a California that would no longer lend a helping hand to some of its poorest and neediest citizens, proposing a budget that would eliminate the state's welfare-to-work program and most child care for the poor.

    His $83.4-billion plan would freeze funding for local schools, further cut state workers' pay and take away 60% of state money for local mental health programs.
    During the press conference, Schwarzenegger compared California to Greece. Ouch.

    California: "Absolutely terrible" budget cuts to be announced at 4 PM ET

    by Calculated Risk on 5/14/2010 02:37:00 PM

    There will be a live webcast of Governor Schwarzenegger's comments here on the new budget that his office says includes "absolutely terrible cuts".

    From the LA Times: Schwarzenegger's revised budget plan is expected to eliminate health programs

    Administration officials declined to reveal which specific programs the governor would eliminate. But officials involved in the budget process, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak publicly, said they would probably include home healthcare for the elderly and disabled, a nearly $2-billion program that serves 440,000 Californians.
    From the SacBee: Schwarzenegger's prison plan would move nonviolent felons to county jails
    Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger will revive a plan to house 15,000 nonviolent felons in county jails instead of state prisons, a cost-cutting move that likely would result in some inmates leaving jail early. ... His office warned earlier this week that the package will contain "absolutely terrible cuts" to shrink a nearly $20 billion deficit.
    The cutbacks and layoffs continue for many state and local governments.