by Calculated Risk on 5/14/2010 09:28:00 PM

A little Friday evening humor from Jon Stewart at the Daily Show: Hoarders

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Hoarders
www.thedailyshow.com

by Calculated Risk on 5/14/2010 07:10:00 PM

In the "Show Me State"
Southwest Community Bank
Has been shown the door.

Midwest Bank and Trust
A bailout recipient
TARP lifeline squandered
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Simmons First National Bank, Pine Bluff, Arkansas, Assumes All of the Deposits of Southwest Community Bank, Springfield, Missouri

As of March 31, 2010, Southwest Community Bank had approximately $96.6 million in total assets and $102.5 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $29.0 million. ... Southwest Community Bank is the 71st FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the fourth in Missouri.

From the FDIC: Firstmerit Bank, National Association, Akron, Ohio, Assumes All of the Deposits of Midwest Bank and Trust Company, Elmwood Park, Illinois

As of March 31, 2010, Midwest Bank and Trust Company had approximately $3.17 billion in total assets and $2.42 billion in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $216.4 million. ... Midwest Bank and Trust Company is the 72nd FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the eleventh in Illinois

Midwest was a fair size bank ... that makes four today.

by Calculated Risk on 5/14/2010 06:10:00 PM

New Liberty Bank
Old liberties taken
Asset absconding
by Soylent Green is People
From FDIC: Bank of Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor, Michigan, Assumes All of the Deposits of New Liberty Bank, Plymouth, Michigan

As of March 31, 2010, New Liberty Bank had approximately $109.1 million in total assets and $101.8 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $25.0 million. ... New Liberty Bank is the 70th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the third in Michigan.

Two down ...

by Calculated Risk on 5/14/2010 05:10:00 PM

Good-bye Satilla
One more Georgia bank wipe-out
B F F begins
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Ameris Bank, Moultrie, Georgia, Assumes All of the Deposits of Satilla Community Bank, Saint Marys, Georgia

As of March 31, 2010, Satilla Community Bank had approximately $135.7 million in total assets and $134.0 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $31.3 million. ... Satilla Community Bank is the 69th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the eighth in Georgia.

Friday is here.

by Calculated Risk on 5/14/2010 04:26:00 PM

From the SacBee: Schwarzenegger budget would eliminate welfare

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger asked lawmakers Friday to eliminate the state's welfare program starting in October and dramatically scale back in-home care for elderly and disabled as part of his May budget revision to close a $19.1 billion deficit.

[Schwarzenegger] also proposed cuts to state worker compensation.
...
Schwarzenegger proposed eliminating state-subsidized child care for all but preschoolers ...

From the LA Times: Schwarzenegger unveils austere budget plan

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger outlined a stark vision Friday of a California that would no longer lend a helping hand to some of its poorest and neediest citizens, proposing a budget that would eliminate the state's welfare-to-work program and most child care for the poor.

His $83.4-billion plan would freeze funding for local schools, further cut state workers' pay and take away 60% of state money for local mental health programs.

During the press conference, Schwarzenegger compared California to Greece. Ouch.

by Calculated Risk on 5/14/2010 02:37:00 PM

There will be a live webcast of Governor Schwarzenegger's comments here on the new budget that his office says includes "absolutely terrible cuts".

From the LA Times: Schwarzenegger's revised budget plan is expected to eliminate health programs

Administration officials declined to reveal which specific programs the governor would eliminate. But officials involved in the budget process, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak publicly, said they would probably include home healthcare for the elderly and disabled, a nearly $2-billion program that serves 440,000 Californians.

From the SacBee: Schwarzenegger's prison plan would move nonviolent felons to county jails

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger will revive a plan to house 15,000 nonviolent felons in county jails instead of state prisons, a cost-cutting move that likely would result in some inmates leaving jail early. ... His office warned earlier this week that the package will contain "absolutely terrible cuts" to shrink a nearly $20 billion deficit.

The cutbacks and layoffs continue for many state and local governments.

by Calculated Risk on 5/14/2010 11:57:00 AM

From the Financial Times: Euro plunges as growth worries mount

[S]igns of deflation emerged in Spain and concerns grew that the latest tough austerity measures across Europe would damp growth in the region. This sent the euro to new 18-month lows against the dollar and gold to a new high.
excerpt with permission

At the same time China is trying to slow down their overheated real estate sector market:

[T]he China Securities Journal reported that Shanghai’s municipal government was putting up nearly 40 lots of land for sale in the city’s most extensive release yet.

And the stronger dollar will probably impact U.S. exports to Europe (although trade to Europe is a fairly small part of U.S. GDP). Still manufacturing has been one of the better performing U.S. sectors, but with the inventory correction mostly over (businesses are now building inventories) and if exports soften - this will impact U.S. growth.

A 2nd half slowdown in the U.S. appears very likely.

by Calculated Risk on 5/14/2010 09:15:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production increased 0.8 percent in April after having risen 0.2 percent in March. The rates of change for both January and March were revised up, but the rate of change for February was revised down; nevertheless, the cumulative change over those months was only slightly lower than previously reported. Manufacturing output climbed 1.0 percent in April for a second consecutive month and was 6.0 percent above its year-earlier level. The increases in manufacturing continued to be broadly based across industries.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 7.9% from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967).

Capacity utilization at 73.7% is still far below normal - and 8.5% below the the pre-recession levels of 80.5% in November 2007.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

This is the highest level for industrial production since Dec 2008, but production is still 9.0% below the pre-recession levels at the end of 2007.

Still a long way to go.

by Calculated Risk on 5/14/2010 08:30:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.4% from March to April (seasonally adjusted, after revisions), and sales were up 8.8% from April 2009 (easy comparison).

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

The red line shows retail sales ex-gasoline and shows the increase in final demand ex-gasoline has been sluggish.

Retail sales are up 9.2% from the bottom, but still off 3.6% from the pre-recession peak.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail sales ex-gasoline increased by 6.9% on a YoY basis (8.8% for all retail sales). The year-over-year comparisons are easy now since retail sales collapsed in late 2008. Retail sales bottomed in December 2008.

Here is the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $366.4 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month and 8.8 percent (±0.5%) above April 2009. Total sales for the February through April 2010 period were up 7.3 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The February to March 2010 percent change was revised from +1.9 percent (±0.5%) to +2.1 percent (±0.4%).

The strongest sector was building material and garden equipment sales - and that might have been positively impacted by the homebuyer tax credit. Still this is a reasonably strong report.

by Calculated Risk on 5/13/2010 08:45:00 PM

Last night I linked to an article from Catherine Rampell at the NY Times that highlighted the skills mismatch problem related to long term unemployment.

And from Haya El Nasser at the USA Today: More move, but not long distance

More Americans moved last year than in the previous year, but most didn't go far, a sign that foreclosures and housing costs are still keeping people close to home.
...
"The main reason migration has ticked up (in 2009) is local movement," [William Frey, demographer at the Brookings Institution said]. "Foreclosures have a lot to do with that. A lot of people have moved to renter status."
...
"This is the absolute worst time to lose our residential mobility," says Richard Florida, a professor of U.S. urban theory at the University of Toronto. "It's important for people to move to where the new opportunities are, because that is the cornerstone of our idea-driven economy."

The loss of mobility is a huge concern. Usually people can move freely in the U.S. to pursue employment - but it is more difficult now, especially for borrowers who are underwater on their homes.

In March, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart discussed both of these mismatches: Prospects for Sustained Recovery and Employment Gains. These mismatches are part of the reason I expect the unemployment rate to stay elevated for some time.