by Calculated Risk on 3/01/2010 10:00:00 AM

PMI at 56.5% in February. Down from 58.4% in January, and up from 54.9% in December.

From the Institute for Supply Management: February 2010 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in February for the seventh consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 10th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The manufacturing sector grew for the seventh consecutive month during February. While new orders and production were not as strong as they were in January, they still show significant month-over-month growth. Additionally, the Employment Index is very encouraging, as it is up 2.8 percentage points for the month to 56.1 percent. This is the third consecutive month of growth in the Employment Index. With these levels of activity, manufacturers are seemingly willing to hire where they have orders to support higher employment."

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by Calculated Risk on 3/01/2010 08:30:00 AM

From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, January 2010

Personal income increased $11.4 billion, or 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $47.6 billion, or 0.4 percent, in January, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. ... Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $52.4 billion, or 0.5 percent.
...
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.3 percent in January, compared with an increase of 0.1 percent in December.
...
Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $367.2 billion in January, compared with $467.9 billion in December. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 3.3 percent in January, compared with 4.2 percent in December.

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by Calculated Risk on 2/28/2010 11:59:00 PM

First from Paul Krugman: Financial Reform Endgame

A weak financial reform ... wouldn’t be tested until the next big crisis. All it would do is create a false sense of security and a fig leaf for politicians opposed to any serious action — then fail in the clinch.

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by Calculated Risk on 2/28/2010 07:25:00 PM

In the Weekly Summary and a Look Ahead post, I included a consensus forecast of a decline in light vehicle sales to 10.4 million units in February, on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. That may be a little high ...

From The Detroit News: Snowstorms, Toyota problems cut into February auto sales

When results are released Tuesday, automotive research firm Edmunds.com predicts retail sales will increase 14.2 percent from a year earlier, while research firm TrueCar.com expects a nearly 9 percent bump. ... [On a SAAR basis] Edmunds predicting 10.6 million U.S. sales ... while TrueCar.com anticipates 10.04 million

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by Calculated Risk on 2/28/2010 03:29:00 PM

From Stephen Castle and Landon Thomas Jr. at the NY Times: Europe Union Moves Toward a Bailout of Greece

[T]he European Union is moving toward the first bailout in the history of its common currency, which is expected to involve loan guarantees from the German and French governments to encourage their banks to buy Greek debt.

Even as the negotiations continue, the bloc is insisting that Athens impose further, painful austerity measures ...

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by Calculated Risk on 2/28/2010 11:55:00 AM

This will be a busy week for economic data, and the focus will be on the BLS February employment report to be released on Friday. The consensus is for a net loss of 50 to 80 thousand payroll jobs, and the unemployment rate to increase slightly to 9.8% (from 9.7%).

There is considerable debate on the impact of the snow storms on the employment report. The BLS will disclose and adjust for any snow related data collection issues, but some hiring might have been delayed because of the storms. However, if so, there will be a bounce back in March - however it is important to remember that the weekly unemployment claims were moving higher before the storms arrived. Also the temporary hiring for the 2010 Census will have increased slightly - I'm sure all of these issues will be widely discussed ...

On Monday, the BEA will release the Personal Income and Outlays report for January. This release is very useful for looking at both Personal Income and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). Also on Monday, the ISM Manufacturing index (consensus is for expansion, but a slight decrease to 57.5% from 58.4%), and the January Construction Spending report from the Census Bureau (consensus is for a decline of 0.5%).

On Tuesday, the various manufacturers will release light vehicle sales for February. The consensus is for a decline to about 10.4 million on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis from 10.8 million in January. Sales for Toyota will be closely watched. Also on Tuesday, the Personal Bankruptcy Filings estimate for February will be released.

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by Calculated Risk on 2/28/2010 08:59:00 AM

Just a reminder ...

From John Schmid at the Journal Sentinel: Unemployment benefits for 1.2 million Americans could expire Sunday

Nearly 1.2 million unemployed Americans ... face an imminent cutoff of government unemployment checks if Congress cannot pass emergency legislation to extend federal benefits before funding expires Sunday.

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by Calculated Risk on 2/27/2010 11:49:00 PM

Here is the Federal Reserve balance sheet break down from the Atlanta Fed weekly Financial Highlights:

Graph Source: Altanta Fed.

From the Atlanta Fed:

The balance sheet expanded $20 billion, to $2.3 trillion, for the week ended February 17.

Holdings of agency debt and mortgage backed securities increased $49 billion while short-term lending to financials, specifically the Term Auction Credit Facility, declined by $23 billion.

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by Calculated Risk on 2/27/2010 06:59:00 PM

Some fun from the Daily Show. Link here if embed doesn't load.

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by Calculated Risk on 2/27/2010 02:48:00 PM

From Alana Semuels at the LA Times : Many borrowers in default stay put as lenders delay evictions

Throughout the country, people continue to default on their home loans -- but lenders have backed off on forced evictions, allowing many to remain in their homes, essentially rent-free.

Several factors are driving the trend, industry experts say, including government pressure on banks to modify loans and keep people in their homes.

And with a glut of inventory in places like Southern California's Inland Empire, Nevada and Arizona, lenders are loath to depress housing prices further by dumping more properties into a weak market.

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