by Calculated Risk on 10/18/2009 12:21:00 PM

Kevin Hall at McClatchy Newspapers writes: How Moody's sold its ratings -- and sold out investors (ht Atrios)

A McClatchy investigation has found that Moody's punished executives who questioned why the company was risking its reputation by putting its profits ahead of providing trustworthy ratings for investment offerings.

Instead, Moody's promoted executives who headed its "structured finance" division, which assisted Wall Street in packaging loans into securities for sale to investors. It also stacked its compliance department with the people who awarded the highest ratings to pools of mortgages that soon were downgraded to junk.

How can securities be rated AAA one day, and junk the next?

The rating agencies pocketed the fees, and investors (including the Fed) still use their ratings. As Atrios jokes: "Not sure there have been negative consequence for them, so call it a win!"

by Calculated Risk on 10/18/2009 09:38:00 AM

From Roger Vincent at the LA Times: Southern California's vast desolation indoors

... Almost 51 million square feet of office space in Los Angeles County, Orange County and the Inland Empire is now empty -- more than 17% of the total. ... "These vacancies are a direct reflection on unemployment," said Joe Vargas, an executive vice president at Cushman & Wakefield. "Companies continue to reduce their workforce, or they are not hiring."
...
Real estate rentals are a lagging indicator of the economy, so the shrinking-space trend is expected to persist well into next year even if the nation's financial outlook continues to improve.
...
Cushman & Wakefield's Vargas predicts Southern California will remain a tenant's market through mid-2010 and perhaps longer if employment doesn't start picking up.

"This is certainly the worst downturn we've seen," Vargas said. "We're not going to see real improvement until job growth occurs."

Usually the unemployment rate and the office vacancy rate tend to peak around the same time. So, as the unemployment rate continues to rise into 2010, the office vacancy rate will probably increase too.

On a national basis, Reis' forecast is for the office vacancy rate to peak at 18.2 percent in 2010 (currently 16.5%), and for rents to continue to decline through 2011.

by Calculated Risk on 10/17/2009 10:12:00 PM

From the Telegraph: Era of cheap mortgages is over, British homeowners warned

[T]he Financial Services Authority ... plans to tighten up regulation and crack down on risky lending ...

The FSA's Mortgage Market Review, published tomorrow, will focus on the third of the market considered "higher risk". ... Among the report's proposals, the financial regulator is expected to call for an end to self-certification mortgages and rule that responsibility for income verification be transferred from mortgage brokers to lenders.
...
Second charge and buy-to-let mortgages, neither of which are regulated by the FSA, are expected to be brought under its supervision. In addition, sub-prime, interest-only, and 125pc mortgages will all be subjected to closer scrutiny and higher capital requirements.

The terms are different in the U.K.: "Self certification" is stated income, "second charge" is a second mortgage, and "buy-to-let" is a rental unit.

Subprime, interest only (IO) and 125 percent loan-to-value (LTV) are the same.

There is no purpose for self certification (stated income) loans and these should be banned everywhere. Self certification means "buyer underwritten" as opposed to "lender unwritten" - and that makes no sense. Tanta wrote a couple of great posts on this in 2007: Just Say No To Stated Income and What's Really Wrong With Stated Income .

About time ...

by Calculated Risk on 10/17/2009 06:35:00 PM

Just a follow-up to the previous post - here is the HUD Inspector General's report on the FHA single-family lender approval process (ht MrM)

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph from the Inspector General's report shows the number of approved FHA lenders by year. In 2008 there were 3,297 lender applications approved by the FHA, more than triple the number in 2007.

And 2009 is on pace for a similar number of approvals as 2008 (another 3,000+ lenders).

From the report:

Congressional concerns brought about in part by media coverage has raised concerns that former subprime lenders and brokers are obtaining approval to participate in the FHA program and that they will be responsible for FHA insurance of loans to people unlikely to make their payments.

Our audit objective was to determine whether the application process for Title II provided effective controls to ensure approval of only those lenders that complied with FHA requirements ...

And from the results:

Finding 1: FHA's Lender Approval Process Did Not Ensure That Only Eligible Applicants Were Approved

FHA's lender application process was not adequate to ensure that all of its lender approval requirements were met. This condition occurred because FHA control procedures had been enhanced and automated to handle the recent large increase in the number of lenders applying for the FHA program.

by Calculated Risk on 10/17/2009 03:35:00 PM

From the WaPo: FHA Set to Hire Freddie Mac Official

On Friday, the Inspector General of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, which includes FHA, said the agency lacks the ability to ensure that lenders meet its requirements.

The report also said that FHA did not obtain or consider negative information on lenders from other HUD offices, follow up on whether the required fees or documentation were collected, or properly dispose of lender application files containing personally identifiable information.

The AP has more on the report. (I haven't seen the report yet).

No wonder so many FHA lenders have off-the-chart default rates (see: FHA Lenders with High Default Rates).

by Calculated Risk on 10/17/2009 01:17:00 PM

From the Miami Herald: Florida's jobless rate hits 11 percent as public toll worsens

Florida's overall jobless rate hit 11 percent in September, up two-tenths of a percentage point from the previous month, according to figures released by the state labor department on Friday. That's the highest since 1975, and represents more than a million Floridians out of work.
emphasis added

The BLS will report all the state data this week, and just like in California and Nevada, unemployment in Florida is at an all time high for the state series (started in 1975).

A couple other high unemployment states ...

In Illinois, from the Chicago Tribune: Ill. jobless rate hits 10.5 percent in September

The jobless rate in Illinois increased to 10.5 percent in September after falling to 10 percent in August.

That is almost 700 thousand people unemployed in Illinois.

And the "good news" from the Detroit Free Press: State's jobless rate is showing stability

Michigan's unemployment rate inched slightly higher during September, rising one-tenth of a percentage point to 15.3%.
...
"Michigan's unemployment rate was largely unchanged in September, as a modest recall of auto workers from temporary layoff was countered by job losses in the service sector," said Rick Waclawek, director of [Michigan Department of Energy, Labor & Economic Growth]'s Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives. "The state jobless rate, which rose sharply by five percentage points from December 2008 to June 2009, has stabilized somewhat since June."

That is the good news. The recall of some auto workers kept the unemployment rate "largely unchanged".

My guess is the overall unemployment rate will hit 10% this month or in November.

by Calculated Risk on 10/17/2009 09:30:00 AM

Note: this is not seasonally adjusted. There is a very distinct seasonal pattern for imports, but not for exports.

Sometimes port traffic gives us an early hint of changes in the trade deficit. The following graph shows the loaded inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). Although containers tell us nothing about value, container traffic does give us an idea of the volume of goods being exported and imported.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Inbound traffic was 17.4% below September 2008.

Outbound traffic was 8.6% below September 2008.

Even with the decline in September, there has been a clear recovery in U.S. exports. And export traffic at the LA area ports is at the September 2006 level.

However, for imports, traffic is about at the September 2003 level, and 2009 will probably be the weakest year for import traffic since 2002.

Note: Imports usually peak in the August through October period (as retailers import goods for the holidays) and then decline in November.

And some color from the LA Times: Imports dive at ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach

As dismal as those figures are for the two ports, which rank first and second in the U.S. in container volume and together rank fifth in the world, a greater worry goes beyond the immediate and substantial loss of local trade-related jobs: Some of the ports' most important tenants were so poorly positioned for the downturn that they might sink completely in a sea of billions of dollars of red ink, experts say.

"Without a doubt, the Southern California ports should be worried," said Neil Dekker, an analyst at Drewry Shipping Consultants in London who produces container industry forecasts. "Companies will go bust; freight rates may take years to recover."

by Calculated Risk on 10/16/2009 11:41:00 PM

If no video: Dow Jones Rebounds to 1999

by Calculated Risk on 10/16/2009 09:19:00 PM

Bakersfield failure
A small fish in a big pond
Proof Darwin was right.
by Soylent Green is People
FDIC Press Release: Citizens Business Bank, Ontario, California, Assumes All of the Deposits of San Joaquin Bank, Bakersfield, California

San Joaquin Bank, Bakersfield, California, was closed today by the California Department of Financial Institutions, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of September 29, 2009, San Joaquin Bank had total assets of $775 million and total deposits of approximately $631 million. ...

The FDIC and Citizens Business Bank entered into a loss-share transaction on approximately $683 million of San Joaquin Bank's assets. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $103 million. ... San Joaquin Bank is the 99th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the tenth in California. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Affinity Bank, Ventura, on August 28, 2009.

by Calculated Risk on 10/16/2009 07:38:00 PM

Note: Late addition to PBL, FDIC Cease & Desist: Eurobank, San Juan, Puerto Rico (ht Dave) $2.7 billion in assets. FDIC Certificate #: 27150 Bank Charter Class: NM. Make it 479!

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

The Unofficial Problem Bank List grew significantly from last week. Eighteen institutions were added, which pushes the total to 478.

Aggregate assets increased by $18.8 billion to $316.6 billion. The majority of the asset increase comes from a Cease & Desist order issued against the $11.8 billion Sterling Savings Bank, Spokane, WA.

Other notable additions include Inter National Bank, McAllen, TX ($2.1 billon); Central National Bank, Junction City, KS ($850 million); American Bank and Trust Company, National Association, Davenport, IA ($690.7 million); and Palos Bank and Trust Company, Palos Heights, IL ($530 million).

There were 12 national banks added to the list as the OCC finally released some of its recently issued actions. Among the newly 18 added institutions, the geographic distribution is not surprising with three each headquartered in Florida, Georgia, and Illinois and two each in California and Washington. We again send kudos to the State Banking Department of Illinois for releasing its formal enforcement actions in a prompt manner.

There were no deletions last week as the FDIC did not shutter any institutions. In addition, there were no terminations during the week, but the OCC did convert Formal Agreements against two national banks to Cease & Desist Orders.

Last week, one poster to the blog suggested that there were some errors in the list as a few ticker symbols (i.e., CBC, FINN, or MRB) are associated with more than one institution. We appreciate the close inspection by readers but, in these instances, the ticker association is accurate as these institutions belong to a multi-bank holding company. For example, CBC (Capitol Bancorp, Inc.), a multi-bank holding with consolidated assets of $5.7 billion, controls 56 institutions, which range in asset size from $13.7 million to $1.2 billion.

The list is compiled from regulator press releases or from public news sources (see Enforcement Action Type link for source). The FDIC data is released monthly with a delay, and the Fed and OTC data is more timely. The OCC data is a little lagged. Credit: surferdude808.

See description below table for Class and Cert (and a link to FDIC ID system).

For a full screen version of the table click here.

The table is wide - use scroll bars to see all information!

NOTE: Columns are sortable - click on column header (Assets, State, Bank Name, Date, etc.)





Class: from FDIC

The FDIC assigns classification codes indicating an institution's charter type (commercial bank, savings bank, or savings association), its chartering agent (state or federal government), its Federal Reserve membership status (member or nonmember), and its primary federal regulator (state-chartered institutions are subject to both federal and state supervision). These codes are:

N National chartered commercial bank supervised by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

SM State charter Fed member commercial bank supervised by the Federal Reserve

NM State charter Fed nonmember commercial bank supervised by the FDIC

SA State or federal charter savings association supervised by the Office of Thrift Supervision

SB State charter savings bank supervised by the FDIC

Cert: This is the certificate number assigned by the FDIC used to identify institutions and for the issuance of insurance certificates. Click on the number and the Institution Directory (ID) system "will provide the last demographic and financial data filed by the selected institution".