by Calculated Risk on 10/17/2009 03:35:00 PM

From the WaPo: FHA Set to Hire Freddie Mac Official

On Friday, the Inspector General of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, which includes FHA, said the agency lacks the ability to ensure that lenders meet its requirements.

The report also said that FHA did not obtain or consider negative information on lenders from other HUD offices, follow up on whether the required fees or documentation were collected, or properly dispose of lender application files containing personally identifiable information.

The AP has more on the report. (I haven't seen the report yet).

No wonder so many FHA lenders have off-the-chart default rates (see: FHA Lenders with High Default Rates).

by Calculated Risk on 10/17/2009 01:17:00 PM

From the Miami Herald: Florida's jobless rate hits 11 percent as public toll worsens

Florida's overall jobless rate hit 11 percent in September, up two-tenths of a percentage point from the previous month, according to figures released by the state labor department on Friday. That's the highest since 1975, and represents more than a million Floridians out of work.
emphasis added

The BLS will report all the state data this week, and just like in California and Nevada, unemployment in Florida is at an all time high for the state series (started in 1975).

A couple other high unemployment states ...

In Illinois, from the Chicago Tribune: Ill. jobless rate hits 10.5 percent in September

The jobless rate in Illinois increased to 10.5 percent in September after falling to 10 percent in August.

That is almost 700 thousand people unemployed in Illinois.

And the "good news" from the Detroit Free Press: State's jobless rate is showing stability

Michigan's unemployment rate inched slightly higher during September, rising one-tenth of a percentage point to 15.3%.
...
"Michigan's unemployment rate was largely unchanged in September, as a modest recall of auto workers from temporary layoff was countered by job losses in the service sector," said Rick Waclawek, director of [Michigan Department of Energy, Labor & Economic Growth]'s Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives. "The state jobless rate, which rose sharply by five percentage points from December 2008 to June 2009, has stabilized somewhat since June."

That is the good news. The recall of some auto workers kept the unemployment rate "largely unchanged".

My guess is the overall unemployment rate will hit 10% this month or in November.

by Calculated Risk on 10/17/2009 09:30:00 AM

Note: this is not seasonally adjusted. There is a very distinct seasonal pattern for imports, but not for exports.

Sometimes port traffic gives us an early hint of changes in the trade deficit. The following graph shows the loaded inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). Although containers tell us nothing about value, container traffic does give us an idea of the volume of goods being exported and imported.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Inbound traffic was 17.4% below September 2008.

Outbound traffic was 8.6% below September 2008.

Even with the decline in September, there has been a clear recovery in U.S. exports. And export traffic at the LA area ports is at the September 2006 level.

However, for imports, traffic is about at the September 2003 level, and 2009 will probably be the weakest year for import traffic since 2002.

Note: Imports usually peak in the August through October period (as retailers import goods for the holidays) and then decline in November.

And some color from the LA Times: Imports dive at ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach

As dismal as those figures are for the two ports, which rank first and second in the U.S. in container volume and together rank fifth in the world, a greater worry goes beyond the immediate and substantial loss of local trade-related jobs: Some of the ports' most important tenants were so poorly positioned for the downturn that they might sink completely in a sea of billions of dollars of red ink, experts say.

"Without a doubt, the Southern California ports should be worried," said Neil Dekker, an analyst at Drewry Shipping Consultants in London who produces container industry forecasts. "Companies will go bust; freight rates may take years to recover."

by Calculated Risk on 10/16/2009 11:41:00 PM

If no video: Dow Jones Rebounds to 1999

by Calculated Risk on 10/16/2009 09:19:00 PM

Bakersfield failure
A small fish in a big pond
Proof Darwin was right.
by Soylent Green is People
FDIC Press Release: Citizens Business Bank, Ontario, California, Assumes All of the Deposits of San Joaquin Bank, Bakersfield, California

San Joaquin Bank, Bakersfield, California, was closed today by the California Department of Financial Institutions, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of September 29, 2009, San Joaquin Bank had total assets of $775 million and total deposits of approximately $631 million. ...

The FDIC and Citizens Business Bank entered into a loss-share transaction on approximately $683 million of San Joaquin Bank's assets. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $103 million. ... San Joaquin Bank is the 99th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the tenth in California. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Affinity Bank, Ventura, on August 28, 2009.

by Calculated Risk on 10/16/2009 07:38:00 PM

Note: Late addition to PBL, FDIC Cease & Desist: Eurobank, San Juan, Puerto Rico (ht Dave) $2.7 billion in assets. FDIC Certificate #: 27150 Bank Charter Class: NM. Make it 479!

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

The Unofficial Problem Bank List grew significantly from last week. Eighteen institutions were added, which pushes the total to 478.

Aggregate assets increased by $18.8 billion to $316.6 billion. The majority of the asset increase comes from a Cease & Desist order issued against the $11.8 billion Sterling Savings Bank, Spokane, WA.

Other notable additions include Inter National Bank, McAllen, TX ($2.1 billon); Central National Bank, Junction City, KS ($850 million); American Bank and Trust Company, National Association, Davenport, IA ($690.7 million); and Palos Bank and Trust Company, Palos Heights, IL ($530 million).

There were 12 national banks added to the list as the OCC finally released some of its recently issued actions. Among the newly 18 added institutions, the geographic distribution is not surprising with three each headquartered in Florida, Georgia, and Illinois and two each in California and Washington. We again send kudos to the State Banking Department of Illinois for releasing its formal enforcement actions in a prompt manner.

There were no deletions last week as the FDIC did not shutter any institutions. In addition, there were no terminations during the week, but the OCC did convert Formal Agreements against two national banks to Cease & Desist Orders.

Last week, one poster to the blog suggested that there were some errors in the list as a few ticker symbols (i.e., CBC, FINN, or MRB) are associated with more than one institution. We appreciate the close inspection by readers but, in these instances, the ticker association is accurate as these institutions belong to a multi-bank holding company. For example, CBC (Capitol Bancorp, Inc.), a multi-bank holding with consolidated assets of $5.7 billion, controls 56 institutions, which range in asset size from $13.7 million to $1.2 billion.

The list is compiled from regulator press releases or from public news sources (see Enforcement Action Type link for source). The FDIC data is released monthly with a delay, and the Fed and OTC data is more timely. The OCC data is a little lagged. Credit: surferdude808.

See description below table for Class and Cert (and a link to FDIC ID system).

For a full screen version of the table click here.

The table is wide - use scroll bars to see all information!

NOTE: Columns are sortable - click on column header (Assets, State, Bank Name, Date, etc.)





Class: from FDIC

The FDIC assigns classification codes indicating an institution's charter type (commercial bank, savings bank, or savings association), its chartering agent (state or federal government), its Federal Reserve membership status (member or nonmember), and its primary federal regulator (state-chartered institutions are subject to both federal and state supervision). These codes are:

N National chartered commercial bank supervised by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

SM State charter Fed member commercial bank supervised by the Federal Reserve

NM State charter Fed nonmember commercial bank supervised by the FDIC

SA State or federal charter savings association supervised by the Office of Thrift Supervision

SB State charter savings bank supervised by the FDIC

Cert: This is the certificate number assigned by the FDIC used to identify institutions and for the issuance of insurance certificates. Click on the number and the Institution Directory (ID) system "will provide the last demographic and financial data filed by the selected institution".

by Calculated Risk on 10/16/2009 03:26:00 PM

First Federal Bank of California put out a press release claiming better modification performance than the national average:

Compared to the national average, far fewer loans modified by the Bank have defaulted as of August 31, the latest date for which there is comparative data. Just 28.3% of the loans modified by First Federal Bank of California in the first quarter of 2008 had become at least 30 days delinquent 12 months after they were modified. By contrast, that figure is 65.9% for national banks and federally regulated thrifts, according to a September report by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision.

Wow. Maybe other banks can learn something from First Fed on loan modifications!

But wait:

Over 90% of the loans that the Bank has modified since the program started were current at the time they were modified. The Bank converted many adjustable-rate loans into fixed-rate mortgages for up to 10 years and eliminated negative-amortization provisions for modified loans. These steps have reduced the risk of foreclosure and potential loan losses.

Not so impressive. Most loans that are modified by national banks are delinquent, and redefault rates are much higher than initial default rates.

Amherst Securities noted that this week (no link):

[R]e-performing loans are defined as those that were once more than 60 days delinquent, and are now less than 60 days delinquent. This can occur either through natural curing or modifications. However, these re-performing loans do not perform in the same manner as loans that have never been delinquent.

In particular, the default rates on the re-performing bucket is huge. Most of these loans will eventually fail. The question is just – when?

Of course First Fed is targeting loans that will probably default (a good strategy), but the solution of modifying to a low fixed rate for up to ten years (without principal reduction), sounds like "extend and pretend".

by Calculated Risk on 10/16/2009 02:31:00 PM

From the California Employment Development Department

EDD’s report on payroll employment (wage and salary jobs) in the nonfarm industries of California totaled 14,200,400 in September, a net loss of 39,300 jobs since the August survey. This followed a loss of 7,200 jobs (as revised) in August.

The goods news is the unemployment rate declined slightly after an upwards revision to the August report:

California’s unemployment rate was 12.2 percent in September ... In August, the state’s unemployment rate was a revised 12.3 percent

The revision makes the 12.3% California unemployment rate for August a new series high (state series began in 1976).

The BLS will release the data for all States on Oct 21st.

by Calculated Risk on 10/16/2009 12:10:00 PM

From MarketWatch: Summers: 'Time has come' for deep change for banks

White House senior economic adviser Lawrence Summers challenged U.S. financial institutions Friday to think about what they can do for their country by stepping up and accepting the regulations imposed upon them in the wake of the largest financial crisis since the Great Depression.

"Financial institutions that have benefited from government support can, should and must use this moment to think about what they can do for their country -- by accepting the necessary regulation to protect the American people," Summers said in remarks prepared for delivery at the Economist's Buttonwood Gathering in New York. "There is no financial institution that exists today that is not the direct or indirect beneficiary of trillions of dollars of taxpayer support for the financial system."
...
"The time has come for fundamental change in the financial sector of our economy -- both in how financial institutions conduct their business and how they are regulated," Summers said.
...
"[We have] one crisis every three years," Summers said. "Surely a system that produces this many accidents and accidents this severe is a system that is in very much need of reform."

Clearly this means much more than consumer protection and aligning compensation with the goals of the corporation (not on taking short term risks). Those are good first steps - as is regulating derivatives - but the key is that no bank should be “systemically important” or "too big to fail".

by Calculated Risk on 10/16/2009 09:15:00 AM

From MarketWatch: U.S. Sept. industrial production up 0.7%

U.S. industrial production increased at an annual rate of 5.2% in the third quarter ... Capacity utilization rose to 70.5% in September from a revised 69.9% in August.

Auto production was up significantly.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series has increased for three straight months, and is up from the record low set in June (the series starts in 1967). Capacity Utilization had decreased in 17 of the previous 18 months.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

An increase in capacity utilization is usually an indicator that the official recession is over.