by Calculated Risk on 6/05/2009 08:30:00 AM

From the BLS:

Nonfarm payroll employment fell by 345,000 in May, about half the average monthly decline for the prior 6 months, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The unemployment rate continued to rise, increasing from 8.9 to 9.4 percent.

Steep job losses continued in manufacturing, while declines moderated in construction and several service-providing industries.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the unemployment rate and the year over year change in employment vs. recessions.

Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 345,000 in May. The economy has lost almost 3.6 million jobs over the last 6 months, and over 6 million jobs during the 17 consecutive months of job losses.

The unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent; the highest level since 1983.

Year over year employment is strongly negative (there were 5.4 million fewer Americans employed in May 2009 than in May 2008).

The second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms (as opposed to the number of jobs lost).

For the current recession, employment peaked in December 2007, and this recession was a slow starter (in terms of job losses and declines in GDP).

However job losses have really picked up over the last 8 months (4.6 million jobs lost, red line cliff diving on the graph), and the current recession is now one of the worst recessions since WWII in percentage terms - although not in terms of the unemployment rate.

This is another weak employment report ... more soon.

by Calculated Risk on 6/04/2009 10:17:00 PM

Here is a video of Mish from Global Economic Analysis giving a talk at Google (most Q&A). Yes, I helped him get started ...

Update: To be clear, I disagree with Mish on many points. I didn't want to turn this into a debate ...

by Calculated Risk on 6/04/2009 07:26:00 PM

S&P put out a report this afternoon: The Potential Rating Impact Of Proposed Methodology Changes On U.S. CMBS. A few excerpts:

In our preliminary review of outstanding transactions, there were a number of recent-vintage transactions that required 'AAA' credit enhancement of more than 30% using our 'AAA' stress, which implies that super-senior classes within those deals would be downgraded.
...

Transactions from the 2007 vintage are likely to experience the greatest impact if the criteria are adopted, as most tranches currently rated 'AAA' with 30% credit enhancement ("super dupers") would likely be downgraded. The downgraded classes would have a weighted average rating (WAR) of 'A'.
...

Shorter weighted-average life 'AAA' classes benefit from structural protection and would likely perform better than longer-weighted average life 'AAA' classes. Of the A-2 (five-year) classes from 2005-2007, 25% of the 2005 deals (12 classes, 12 transactions), 10% of the 2006 deals (five classes, four transactions), and 25% of the 2007 deals (15 classes, 13 transactions) are potentially at risk for downgrade based on our analysis.
...
Ten-year super-duper (30% credit-enhanced) classes have a higher potential for downgrades than the shorter weighted-average life classes: 50% (2005), 85% (2006), and 95% (2007) of the super-duper 'AAA' tranches would likely be at risk.

Note: This appears to be a change from the request for comments issued May 26th, but it really isn't. In the request for comment S&P stated: “approximately 25%, 60%, and 90% of the most senior tranches (by count) within the 2005, 2006, and 2007 vintages, respectively, may be downgraded.” However that included both shorter and longer weighted-average life classes. It is the Ten-year super dupers that will be hit the hardest.

by Calculated Risk on 6/04/2009 05:47:00 PM

From Bloomberg: Dudley’s TALF Comments Add Signs of a PPIP Stall (ht Brian, Bob_in_MA)

The Federal Reserve may not start lending against residential mortgage-backed securities under its Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley indicated.

“We’re still in the process of assessing whether a legacy RMBS program is feasible, and if it were feasible, whether it would be significant enough to make a major impact,” Dudley said at a conference today ... His comments add to signs that Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s Public-Private Investment Program to boost debt prices and rid banks of devalued assets to expand lending is stalling

From the Financial Times: Fed damps hopes on mortgage-backed securities

The US Federal Reserve on Thursday damped expectations that it was preparing to prop up the market for distressed bubble-era securities backed by mortgages.

Hopes that the Fed would in the coming months start providing financing to investors seeking to buy residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) – many of which have lost their triple A credit ratings – have pushed prices on these assets higher in recent months.

William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said on Thursday that a decision had not been made. “We have not made a final decision on whether it is doable and, if it is doable, whether it is worth the cost,” he said.

by Calculated Risk on 6/04/2009 03:23:00 PM

The difference in yields between Treasury two- and 10-year notes widened to a record again today ... The so-called yield curve steepened to 2.79 percentage points, surpassing the previous record of 2.75 percentage points set last week. The previous record was 2.74 on Aug. 13, 2003.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the difference between the ten- and two-year yields.

Usually a steep yield curve precedes a period of decent growth, but several analysts suggest the current ten year sell-off is due to concerns about increased Treasury issuance to finance the deficit. Whatever the reason, mortgage rates higher are moving higher, from Freddie Mac: Mortgage Rates Climb in Response to Recent Rise in Bond Yields

Freddie Mac (today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) in which the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.29 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending June 4, 2009, up from last week when it averaged 4.91 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.09 percent.
...
"30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates caught up to the recent rise in long-term bond yields this week to reach a 25-week high," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist."

Update: From Bloomberg: Treasuries Fall as Claims Drop Suggests Worst of Slump Ending (ht speed)

Yields on 10-year notes approached a six-month high ... The difference between two- and 10-year notes steepened to a record 2.793 percentage points as the U.S. announced it would auction $30 billion in 10- and 30-year securities next week.
...
The increase in Treasury yields have also driven rates on mortgage-backed bonds higher, leading holders of the securities to sell U.S. debt used as a hedge to protect portfolios against rising interest rates. The same trade helped drive 10-year Treasury yields to 3.75 percent last week, the highest since November.

“There is mortgage selling going on,” Mizuho’s Combias said. “The volatility is causing all the big mortgage portfolios to have to hedge.”

Yields on Washington-based Fannie Mae’s current-coupon 30- year fixed-rate mortgage bonds rose 19 basis points to 4.72 percent, up from 3.94 percent on May 20.

by Calculated Risk on 6/04/2009 03:09:00 PM

Headline from the WSJ: The SEC is expected to approve civil fraud charges against former Countrywide executives as soon as today.

From CNBC: SEC to Charge Ex-Countrywide CEO: Sources

The SEC will charge Angelo Mozilo, former chairman and CEO of Countrywide Financial, with insider trading, according to people familiar with the situation.

The SEC will also charge the company's former chief operating officer, David Sambol, and former financial chief, Eric Sieracki, with securities fraud for failing to disclose the firm's relaxed lending standards in its 2006 annual report.

The charges, which are expected to be announced by the SEC later today, will not be accompanied by any criminal indictments.

by Calculated Risk on 6/04/2009 12:24:00 PM

Note: some of the decline in occupancy rate is seasonal, and the rate should increase during the Summer months - especially since leisure travel has not declined as much as business travel and Summer has a higher mix of vacation travel (see: Hotels: "By the numbers" )

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR reports US performance for week ending 30 May 2009

In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy fell 10.2 percent to end the week at 51.6 percent. Average daily rate dropped 9.6 percent to finish the week at US$93.00. Revenue per available room [RevPAR] for the week decreased 18.9 percent to finish at US$47.96.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the YoY change in the occupancy rate (3 week trailing average).

The three week average is off 11.4% from the same period in 2008.

The average daily rate is down 9.6%, so RevPAR is off 18.9% from the same week last year.

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com

by Calculated Risk on 6/04/2009 09:53:00 AM

From Bloomberg: Corus Bankshares Said to Draw Interest From Colony, Related

... Colony Capital LLC and ... Related Cos. have indicated they may seek to buy the assets of Corus Bankshares Inc. ...

Corus ... hired Bank of America Corp. to solicit capital this month or sell the entire firm to avoid being shuttered ... Investors may offer to buy the lender while it’s still in business or to purchase its assets out of receivership, said the people, who requested anonymity because the process isn’t public.
...
Federal regulators found that Corus was undercapitalized and may place the bank into receivership if it fails to satisfy capital requirements, according to the May filing. Its nonperforming assets more than quadrupled to $2.5 billion as of March 31, the filing showed. It had reserves of $338.6 million and reported a first-quarter loss of $285 million.
emphasis added

From the Corus 10-Q in May:

In its report dated April 6, 2009, our independent registered public accounting firm stated that our net losses raise substantial doubts about our ability to continue as a going concern. Our ability to continue as a going concern is in doubt as a result of the continued deterioration of our loan portfolio and is subject to our ability to service our existing loans in a manner that will return the Company to profitability or, in the alternative, identify and consummate a strategic transaction, including the potential sale of the Company.
...
The Bank may be subject to a federal conservatorship or receivership if it cannot comply with the OCC Order, the Prompt Corrective Action requirements, or if its condition continues to deteriorate.

This is similar to BankUnited, except we don't have a date. Something to watch for tomorrow.

by Calculated Risk on 6/04/2009 08:35:00 AM

The DOL reports on weekly unemployment insurance claims:

In the week ending May 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 621,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 625,000. The 4-week moving average was 631,250, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised average of 627,250.
...
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 23 was 6,735,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 6,750,000.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows weekly claims and continued claims since 1971.

Continued claims declined slightly to 6.73 million after increasing for 19 consecutive weeks. This is 5.0% of covered employment.

Note: continued claims peaked at 5.4% of covered employment in 1982 and 7.0% in 1975. So this isn't a record as a percent of covered employment.

The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased this week by 4,000, and is now 27,500 below the peak of 7 weeks ago. There is a reasonable chance that claims have peaked for this cycle, but it is still too early to be sure, and if so, continued claims should peak soon.

The level of initial claims (over 621 thousand) is still very high, indicating significant weakness in the job market.

In other employment news, the Monster Employment Index declined slightly in May:

The Monster Employment Index edged two points lower in May, as U.S. online recruitment activity eased slightly following a seasonal rise in April. Year-over-year, the Index was down 29 percent, a slight improvement from the previous month, indicating the rate of slowdown in the labor market may have stabilized.

by Calculated Risk on 6/03/2009 10:08:00 PM

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