by Calculated Risk on 1/20/2009 04:17:00 PM

Citigroup (C) off 20%

BoF (BAC) off 29%

JPMorgan (JPM) off 21%

Goldman Sachs (GS) off 19%

Wells Fargo (WFC) off 24%

Morgan Stanley (MS) off 16%

Did someone say "Nationalize"?

Another fun day ...

by Calculated Risk on 1/20/2009 02:36:00 PM

From CNBC: Layoffs Keep Growing—Is Your Firm On the List? (hat tip stay classy San Diego)

Bank of America may slash as much as 4,000 jobs as it absorbs Merrill Lynch, the Financial Times reported Tuesday.

CNBC has a list of layoffs announced since the beginning of the year.

Also from The Boston Globe: Bose confirms layoffs

Bose Corp., a Framingham company known for its audio products, confirmed news reports that it is cutting 1,000 jobs, or about 10 percent of its work force, as it seeks to adapt to a global economy in recession.

The beat goes on ...

by Calculated Risk on 1/20/2009 11:14:00 AM

Here is the CNBC feed of the inauguration. Mr. Obama takes the oath of office at noon ET.

From an economic perspective, Mr. Obama's first few weeks in office will be critical as his administration finalizes the stimulus package and addresses the ongoing crisis in the banking system.

Best wishes to Mr. Obama. You are now on the clock.

by Calculated Risk on 1/20/2009 10:00:00 AM

From Bloomberg: Roubini Predicts U.S. Losses May Reach $3.6 Trillion

“I’ve found that credit losses could peak at a level of $3.6 trillion for U.S. institutions, half of them by banks and broker dealers,” Roubini said at a conference in Dubai today. “If that’s true, it means the U.S. banking system is effectively insolvent because it starts with a capital of $1.4 trillion. This is a systemic banking crisis.”

Professor Roubini has been steadily increasing his estimate of total U.S. credit losses, but I think this estimate might be too high.

I think the U.S. residential credit losses will be in the $1 to $1.5 trillion range and additional credit losses from corporate loans and bonds, commercial real estate, credit cards, and other consumer loans will probably add close to another $1 trillion in losses. That is still well short of Roubini's $3.6 trillion estimate - although give Roubini credit - he has definitely been right so far!

by Calculated Risk on 1/20/2009 09:37:00 AM

From Bloomberg: State Street Net Falls 71% on Costs to Support Funds

State Street Corp ... Results included costs of more than $800 million to offset losses in its stable value funds, cut jobs and write down the value of investment securities.

Here is the State Street presentation (hat tip Mike in Long Island)

Check out the acceleration in the Unrealized after-tax MTM losses on page 4.

Also Mike suggests looking at page 18 and the exposure to RMBS in Spain and Italy.

And from the WSJ: Regions Financial Swings to Loss on $6 Billion Write-Down

Regions Financial Corp. swung to a fourth-quarter loss as it took a $6 billion goodwill write-down and sharply raised loan-loss provisions, although non-performing assets fell slightly amid the continuing disposal of problem assets.

The bad news continues ...

by Calculated Risk on 1/19/2009 11:26:00 PM

From the WSJ: Fiat Nears Stake in Chrysler That Could Lead to Takeover

Under terms of a pact that is being hammered out, Fiat is likely to take a 35% stake in Chrysler by the middle of this year. It would have the option of increasing that to as much as 55% ...

Fiat ... wouldn't immediately put cash into Chrysler. Instead it would obtain its stake mainly in exchange for covering the cost of retooling a Chrysler plant to produce one or more Fiat models to be sold in the U.S. ...

Thirty five percent of Chrysler for the cost of retooling a plant ... that will make Fiats!

by Calculated Risk on 1/19/2009 08:53:00 PM

From The Times: Nationalisation calls as RBS teeters on the brink

RBS, worth £75 billion only two years ago, is now valued at £4.5 billion, even though it received £32 billion from taxpayers and shareholders less than three months ago.

The bank’s plight prompted calls for the outright nationalisation of RBS, with some MPs urging the Treasury to take over its day-to-day running.
...
The turmoil suggested that the Government’s second massive rescue package had failed to restore confidence to the financial sector. It was a graphic illustration of continued banking uncertainty that prompted calls on the Government from Labour MPs to nationalise the whole system, an idea resisted firmly by Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, last night.

The most recent bail out will increase public ownership of RBS to 70%, so it's not a huge step to complete nationalization.

by Calculated Risk on 1/19/2009 05:09:00 PM

From the National Multi Housing Council (NMHC): Job Losses, Credit Market Conditions Challenge The Apartment Sector, According to NMHC Survey

The stunning job losses and economic deterioration recorded over the past four months have eroded demand for apartments, putting the sector—like other real estate sectors and the economy itself—in a clearly "down" phase of the cycle, according to the National Multi Housing Council's (NMHC) latest Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions.
...
"The long-term prospects for the sector are strong," explained [Mark Obrinsky, NMHC's Chief Economist]. "The number of people between 20-34 years of age is rising rapidly, and as they enter the rental market, demand will rise correspondingly. For now, though, that demographic advantage is being trumped by the worsening job market, which is leading more people to move back in with family or take on roommates to save on housing costs."

"At the same time, the financial crisis is having a material impact on current or planned activities at most apartment firms," said Obrinsky. "Nearly two-thirds of respondents (62 percent) said the credit crisis has had a material impact on current and planned activities. The lack of capital has slowed sales volume, made it difficult to refinance maturing debt and caused many firms to cancel new developments."

The Market Tightness Index, which measures changes in occupancy rates and/or rents, declined sharply this quarter to 11 from 24. This is the third-lowest result on record, and the sixth straight quarter in which the index has been below 50.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the quarterly Apartment Tightness Index.

As NMHC chief economist Obrinsky noted, it is common in a recession for apartment vacancies to rise, as households double up by moving in with a friend or family member. However an added factor in this recession is all the single family homes being offered as rentals. This is additional competition for apartments and might also be impacting demand for apartments.

by Calculated Risk on 1/19/2009 02:49:00 PM

For a laugh, here is a house in Carlsbad, CA west of the freeway selling for under $400 thousand ... from Jim the Realtor:

Wow. Who could live there? (backs to the "Detroit River" ROFLOL)

Houses are even cheaper in Detroit. From Dow Jones: How low can homes go? Try $0

[T]he median price of a home sold in Detroit last month was $7,500, according to Realcomp, a Farmington Hills, Mich., multiple-listing service, down 50 percent from last year.

[Detroit real estate agent Ian Mason] counted 1,228 homes listed for under $10,000, 209 of which were under $1,000.

"Many of them are in pretty decent shape," he said, "and some can be lived in."

Define "live".

by Calculated Risk on 1/19/2009 01:07:00 PM

From DataQuick: Southland home sales off bottom

The core trends of Southern California's 2008 housing market were on prominent display in December: Low-cost inland foreclosures sold briskly, builders had their worst month in decades, expensive markets remained in wait-and-see mode and lenders continued to hold back on making 'jumbo' home loans ...

While sales from September 2007 through last summer were at the lowest in at least two-decades, they've been up off the bottom ever since. Last month was the fifth-slowest December in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. December a year ago was the all-time slowest ...

The number of resale houses sold in Riverside County almost tripled on a year-over-year basis, from 1,238 in December 2007 to 3,617 last month. Just under 70 percent of Riverside County resales were foreclosure homes. ...

Regionwide, foreclosure resales accounted for 55.7 percent of December's resales activity, up from 54.7 percent in November, and up from 24.3 percent in December 2007.

A total of 1,813 newly-built homes were sold in December, easily the lowest number for that month in DataQuick's statistics. ...

The median price paid for a Southland home was $278,000 last month. That was down 2.5 percent from $285,000 for November, and down 34.6 percent from $425,000 for December a year ago. The median reached $505,000 in mid 2007.

In today's market, the drop in the median overstates the decline in home values. The more affordable inland markets with most of the discounted foreclosures account for a large share of today's sales, while homes in the upper half of the market are not selling well ...

This makes a few key points:

The median price is skewed by the mix.

Foreclosure resales ARE the market in many areas.

Builders had the worst December ever.

Significant price declines are probably coming in the more expensive areas. (price follows volume).