by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2008 08:45:00 PM

Count was 74 yes, 25 no. House will apparently vote on Friday.

Here is the live feed from C-SPAN2.

by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2008 04:54:00 PM

Here is the live feed from C-SPAN2. The vote will probably be early this evening.

Here is the CNBC feed.

Other news:
An incredible (must see) video from KCET.org: Foreclosure Alley

National Debt Exceeds $10 Trillion

From MarketWatch: U.S. Sept. ISM manufacturing index plunges to 43.5%

Non-Residential Construction Spending Declines

From the WSJ: U.S. Auto Sales Dive As Consumers Struggle

Ford, Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co. reported declines of 35%, 32% and 24%, respectively, while GM rode its now-expired employee-prices sales promotion to keep its decline to 16%.
...
General Motors Corp. Chief Operating Officer Fritz Henderson said he expects the U.S. auto market weakness to continue into 2009 ...

by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2008 03:11:00 PM

As of Sept 30th, the debt was $10,024,724,896,912.49.

The surge in the National Debt over the last two weeks has been because of the Supplementary Financing Program (SFP) with the Treasury raising cash for the Fed's liquidity initiatives (announced a couple of weeks ago).

Even though this rapid increase in the debt is being driven by the Fed's liquidity initiatives (and should be paid back), crossing $10 trillion is still quite an achievement ...

Hat tip Buzz!

by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2008 02:49:00 PM

For those with infinite patience, here is the live feed from C-SPAN2. The vote will probably be early this evening.

UPDATE: Here is the full text of the bill. The Senate added the bailout to another bill and there are some weird provisions. This is my favorite (I wish each provision had the name of the author!):

SEC. 503. EXEMPTION FROM EXCISE TAX FOR CERTAIN WOODEN ARROWS DESIGNED FOR USE BY CHILDREN.

(a) IN GENERAL.—Paragraph (2) of section 4161(b) is amended by redesignating subparagraph (B) as sub301 paragraph (C) and by inserting after subparagraph (A) the following new subparagraph:

‘‘(B) EXEMPTION FOR CERTAIN WOODEN ARROW SHAFTS.—Subparagraph (A) shall not apply to any shaft consisting of all natural wood with no laminations or artificial means of enhancing the spine of such shaft (whether sold separately or incorporated as part of a finished or unfinished product) of a type used in the manufacture of any arrow which after its assembly—

‘‘(i) measures 5⁄16 of an inch or less in diameter, and
‘‘(ii) is not suitable for use with a bow described in paragraph (1)(A).’’.

(b) EFFECTIVE DATE.—The amendments made by this section shall apply to shafts first sold after the date of enactment of this Act.

by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2008 01:16:00 PM

From kcet.org (hat tip anon)

Foreclosure Alley

For the past few years, the Inland Empire in Riverside County has been one of the fastest growing counties in the state - home to a major housing boom. But now the Inland Empire is pretty much the poster child for the foreclosure crisis. SoCal Connected tracked down some surreal sights associated with the crisis, including a guy who started a business turning abandoned, dead lawns green - with spray-paint.

by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2008 12:22:00 PM

From MarketWatch: Ford U.S. sales fall 34.6% to 120,788 vehicles in September

Ford ... on Wednesday reported a 34.6% drop in September U.S. sales to 120,788 vehicles from 184,612 in September 2007. September marked the lowest sales month so far this year for Ford and the industry, the automaker said.

The focus for the last couple of weeks has been on the credit crisis and the proposed bailout plan, but an even bigger story might be how sharply the economy is slowing. The economic news is grim.

by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2008 11:32:00 AM

From the WSJ: Revised Bill Lets FDIC Borrow Without Limits

The Senate financial market rescue bill would temporarily allow the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to borrow unlimited amounts of money from the Treasury Department in connection with the larger government deposit coverage that would extend until the end of next year.

This is important because it would increase the backstop that the FDIC has to make sure that insured depositors can be repaid if their bank fails.

The WSJ has the full text of the revised bill.

by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2008 10:23:00 AM

From MarketWatch: U.S. Sept. ISM manufacturing index plunges to 43.5%

[M]anufacturers cut back production at a much faster pace than expected in September ... This is the lowest level since October 2001.

It appears the economy slowed sharply in September.

by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2008 10:00:00 AM

It now appears that private non-residential construction has peaked, and I expect non-residential investment will decline sharply over the next year.

From the Census Bureau: August 2008 Construction at 1,072.1 Billion Annual Rate

Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $759.6 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised July estimate of $761.8 billion.

Residential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $343.6 billion in August, 0.3 percent above the revised July estimate of $342.5 billion.

Nonresidential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $416.0 billion in August, 0.8 percent below the revised July estimate of $419.3 billion.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending since 1993.

Nonresidential spending has been strong as builders complete projects, but there is substantial evidence of a looming slowdown - less lending for new projects, less work for architects - and it appears the expected slowdown in non-residential spending has arrived.


The second graph shows the year-over-year change for private residential and non-residential construction spending.

The YoY change in non-residential spending is starting to slow down and will probably turn negative later this year or early in 2009.

Not only has Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) turned negative in Q3, but it now looks like non-residential investment in structures is starting to decline. This was one of few bright spots in the economy (along with exports), and a decline in non-residential investment is more evidence of a recession.

by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2008 08:36:00 AM

From the WSJ: Businesses Pressure Congress on Bailout Plan

General Electric Co. and Verizon Communications Inc. ... have begun lobbying drives. And Microsoft Corp., which has relatively limited borrowing needs, "strongly urges" Congress to reconsider a rescue package "that will re-instill confidence and stability in the financial markets," said the company's top lawyer, Brad Smith.

Even Microsoft, which is sitting on a $23 billion hoard of cash, would be tested by a protracted credit crunch, as its chief executive, Steve Ballmer, noted Tuesday. Speaking to reporters in Norway, Mr. Ballmer said, "No company is immune to these issues."
...
[B]usinesses big and small said borrowing was getting harder as the cost of funds rose.

Corporate-bond issuance in the quarter plunged to $76.7 billion from $337.3 billion in the second quarter ... Companies overall were forced to reduce their borrowings on the short-term commercial paper market by $212 billion between the end of February and last Wednesday, as investors continued to back away from the corporate IOUs.

The lobbying has really started. The Senate will vote on the bailout bill this evening.