by Calculated Risk on 6/20/2008 09:16:00 AM

From the LA Times: The final days: BofA may swallow Countrywide by July 1

A Bank of America Corp. spokesman in Charlotte confirmed today that the company could complete its takeover of the loss-ridden mortgage giant by July 1.

Countrywide shareholders are to meet on Wednesday at the firm’s Calabasas headquarters to vote on the deal. (Not that they have any real choice.)

Once it gets that approval, BofA could complete its stock swap by July 1.
...
Under terms of the deal, announced in January, BofA will exchange 0.1822 of its shares for each Countrywide share. When the takeover was announced on Jan. 11, BofA shares were at $38.50. That put a value of $7.01 a share on Countrywide.

Today, BofA’s stock fell 23 cents to $28.14, its lowest since 2001. That values Country- wide at $5.13 a share ...

This is one of those deals that seemed destined to be renegotiated - and that never happened.

by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2008 10:35:00 PM

Wall Street Meltdown:



Inspired by the Richter Scales classic ("Here Comes Another Bubble):

by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2008 08:10:00 PM

Here is a chart of monthly GDP from Northern Trust:

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Even though the average GDP in Q1 2008 was slightly higher than Q4 2007, on a monthly basis it appears GDP peaked in January - and for six of the last seven months (except January), GDP was lower than Sept '07.

Other measures of an economic recession, such as employment and industrial production, suggest the recession started in December '07 or January '08.

The question now is how long and deep the economic slump will be.

by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2008 06:11:00 PM

Headlines and short story only now from MarketWatch:

Moody's downgrades MBIA to 'A2' from 'Aaa'
Moody's downgrades Ambac to 'Aa3' from 'Aaa'

Here come some more write downs for the banks associated with counterparties being downgraded.

by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2008 03:24:00 PM

From John Spence at MarketWatch: Builder execs nervous about jobs and the economy

Home-builder executives said at an industry conference Thursday that they're making progress clearing out excess inventory, but warned that a recession and spiking unemployment could stop that advance in its tracks.

"No one who's unemployed ever bought a house," said Lawrence Angelilli, senior vice president of finance at Centex Corp. "That's the wild card that everybody is waiting to see is if we get a true economic recession."

Yes, the homebuilders are finally building fewer homes than they are selling - so new home inventory is declining. But the huge overhang of existing homes on the market - especially distressed inventory - will keep housing under pressure for some time.

Also, I think a few unemployed people did buy homes during the boom. NINJA loans were one of the big jokes: No Income, No Job, No Assets.

by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2008 12:50:00 PM

From the Department of Transportation: Americans Drove 1.4 Billion Fewer Highway Miles in April of 2008 than in April 2007 While Fuel Prices and Transit Ridership Are Both on the Rise

[U.S. Transportation Secretary Mary E. Peters] said that Americans drove 1.4 billion fewer highway miles in April 2008 than at the same time a year earlier and 400 million miles less than in March of this year. She added that vehicle miles traveled (VMT) on all public roads for April 2008 fell 1.8 percent as compared with April 2007 travel. This marks a decline of nearly 20 billion miles traveled this year, and nearly 30 billion miles traveled since November.

This is the fewest miles driven in April since 2003.

by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2008 12:25:00 PM

The WSJ has the indictment here.

According to the indictment, the managers knew material information about the condition of the funds, and then provided false information to other investors. As an example, the indictment alleges the managers knew of a major investor withdrawing their entire investment, but in answering direct questions about redemptions, falsely stated that fund redemptions would be minor.

by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2008 11:57:00 AM

Here are few headlines from the Citi conference call.

Impact of CDOs in quarter will be "substantial"

CDO Marks will not be as big as last quarter.

Consumer Credit remains a challenge.

Story to follow ...

by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2008 11:35:00 AM

Here is the Philadelphia Fed Index for June activity released today: Business Outlook Survey.

Note the special question at the bottom on prices. The average expected price change this year is 5.4%!

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the Philly index vs. recessions for the last 40 years. There are a number of times the index was below zero without a recession - so the reading today doesn't mean the economy is in recession. However it is very likely that the economy is already in recession.

From the release, weaker conditions and higher prices :

Indicators Reflect Continued Weakening

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased slightly, from -15.6 in May to -17.1 this month. The index has now been negative for seven consecutive months.

More Manufacturers Report Higher Input Prices

A larger share of firms — 72 percent, up from 61 percent in May— reported higher input prices this month. The prices paid index jumped 16 points, to 69.3, its highest reading since November 1980. (see chart)

Outlook Is Less Optimistic

Following significant improvement in expectations over the last two months, the future general activity index retreated in June, falling from a May reading of 28.2 to 21.3. Forty percent of the firms expect growth in activity over the next six months; 18 percent expect a decline.

Special Questions (June 2008) 1. What impact are these recent cost increases having, or expected to have, on the prices of your finished products over the next three months?
We expect price decreases		14.6%
We expect steady prices		20.2%
We expect price increases		65.2%
	Less than 2.5%		4.5%
	Between 2.5-5%		28.1%
	Between 5-7.5%		13.5%
	Between 7.5-10%		11.2%
	Between 10-15%		3.3%
	Greater than 15%		2.3%
	No response		2.3%
Total		100.0%
Average expected price change		5.4%
Average reported price increase* since the beginning of the year:		3.8%
*Firms were asked what increases in prices have already occurred since January.

by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2008 10:18:00 AM

From Reuters: China to raise gasoline, diesel prices

China, the world's second largest oil consumer, will increase retail gasoline and diesel prices by 1,000 yuan ($145.50) per tonne from Friday, according to industry sources.

See the analyst comments in the story.

Meanwhile, the Shanghai cliff diving continues with the SSE Composite Index off 6.5% last night.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This is a spectacular sell off.

I suspect this stock sell off could be in anticipation of a slowing Chinese economy, and a combination of a Chinese slowdown and lower oil and gasoline subsidies could lead to lower world oil prices later this year.