by Calculated Risk on 3/07/2008 08:39:00 AM

From the BLS: Employment Situation Summary

Nonfarm payroll employment edged down in February (-63,000), and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 4.8 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Employment fell in manufacturing, construction, and retail trade. Job growth continued in health care and in food services.

Click on graph for larger image.

Residential construction employment declined 25,700 in February, and including downward revisions to previous months, is down 407.1 thousand, or about 11.8%, from the peak in February 2006. (compared to housing starts off over 50%).

The second graph shows the unemployment rate and the year-over-year change in employment vs. recessions.


Although unemployment was slightly lower - as people leave the workforce - the rise in unemployment, from a cycle low of 4.4% to 4.8% is a recession warning.

Also concerning is the YoY change in employment is less than 1%, also suggesting a recession.

Overall this is a weak report.

by Anonymous on 3/07/2008 08:31:00 AM

Are here from Fannie Mae. I must say I am really surprised. This level of speed has "political pressure" written all over it.

The details:

1. Fixed rates can be sold to Fannie on or after April 1; ARMs on or after May 1. The loan has to be closed on or after March 1 to be subject to the following rules; inventory loans (closed from last July to March) have to be subject to a "negotiated commitment."

2. No AUS approvals. It seems they plan to update Desktop Underwriter (their automated underwriting system) before the year is out, but they haven't done so yet and they're rollin' without it.

3. For principal residences, fixed-rate loans are limited to 90% LTV/CLTV for a purchase, and 75% LTV/95% CLTV for a no-cash-out refi. ARMs are limited to 80%/80% on a purchase and 75%/90% on a no-cash-out refi. CASH OUT REFIS ARE NOT ALLOWED.

4. For second homes and investment properties, the maximum LTV/CLTV is 60% in all cases for purchases and no-cash-out refis.

5. Minimum FICO for any loan is 660, with a minimum of 700 for LTVs greater than 80%.

6. One-unit properties only.

7. On a primary residence, existing subordinate liens must be resubordinated. The new loan cannot "cash out" an existing subordinate lien.

8. No late mortgage payments in the preceding 12 months.

9. 45% maximum DTI, with ARMs qualified at fully-amortizing fully-indexed rate.

10. Full doc only.

11. For purchases, the borrower must make at least 5% of the down payment from his or her own funds.

12. A full appraisal with interior inspection is required on all loans; if the property value is more than $1 million, a field review appraisal is also required.

13. Loans are subject to all current pricing adjustments, plus another .25 for FRMs and .75 for ARMs.

It was kind of fun to type all that; it reminds me of all the jumbo loan guidelines I used to write in the 90s.

by Anonymous on 3/07/2008 07:00:00 AM

It's official:

See AP story on Thornburg Mortgage: NEW YORK

by Anonymous on 3/07/2008 06:18:00 AM

I will have you know I did not make that up. I made up "Loans Formerly Known as Jumbo" or LFKAJ. But the OFHEO press release actually says "temporary jumbo conforming loan limits." TJC it is.

So, TJCs are here. Specifically, the loan balance limits are here. No word yet on what delightful LTV the GSEs will cap them at, or when such information will be available.

Many more MSAs are impacted than I originally predicted. I guess the time HUD put into establishing a brand-new home price model was well spent.

New limits by MSA are here.

by Anonymous on 3/07/2008 05:51:00 AM

From the Seattle Times:

WaMu has revised its bonus plan for nearly 3,000 top executives so continuing damage from the subprime-lending collapse won't crimp their annual awards.

The struggling Seattle-based lender said in a regulatory filing Monday it will exclude the cost of soured real-estate loans and foreclosure expenses when it calculates net operating profit, the biggest component of executives' 2008 bonuses.

Other changes to the bonus plan also appear to reduce the impact of troubled parts of its business, while giving a bigger role to factors that are less problematic.

The 2008 bonuses will be based on these criteria:

• Net operating profit, 30 percent — with loan losses and expenses related to foreclosed real estate excluded.

• Noninterest expense, 25 percent — again, excluding expenses related to business restructuring and foreclosed real estate.

• Fees from retail banking — a new factor, weighted at 25 percent. Many banks including WaMu have been increasing fees for services such as ATM withdrawals by noncustomers to compensate for losses in other areas.

• Customer-loyalty performance, 20 percent — an increase from 10 percent in the 2007 bonus plan.

In a prepared statement, WaMu said, "The success with which credit costs are managed will unequivocally continue to be a major part of the board's final deliberations."

Spokeswoman Libby Hutchinson said the bonus plan covers almost 3,000 people in WaMu management, many of whom are not directly involved in lending.

But Fred Whittlesey, a Bainbridge Island compensation consultant, questioned why awards for Killinger and the three other top executives named in the plan aren't tied directly to earnings.

"If (they) are not responsible for bank profitability, who is? There's no reason they should be insulated from expenses they created," he said.

The bank has said bonuses, long-term stock awards and other parts of its compensation plan are important to retaining executives.

In January, WaMu said Killinger would receive 3.2 million stock options to vest in coming years, providing him "a strong incentive to restore shareholder value."

But Cannon said WaMu's highest executives shouldn't require such incentives.

"We are somewhat surprised that top management needs extra compensation in order to be retained," he wrote.

I personally would offer these guys $500 cash for their keys. But I have been known to take a hard line with speculators. As, of course, has our Mr. Paulson. Paging Mr. Paulson!

by Calculated Risk on 3/06/2008 10:52:00 PM

Here are a couple of overview articles tonight ...

Floyd Norris at the NY Times writes: Aversion to Risk Deepens Credit Woes

And from Sudeep Reddy and Sara Murray at the WSJ: Housing, Bank Troubles Deepen

by Calculated Risk on 3/06/2008 05:24:00 PM

From Bloomberg: Agency Mortgage-Bond Spreads Rise; Markets `Utterly Unhinged'

Yields on agency mortgage-backed securities rose to a new 22-year high relative to U.S. Treasuries as banks stepped up margin calls and concerns grew that the Federal Reserve may be unable to curb the credit slump.

The difference in yields, or spread, on the Bloomberg index for Fannie Mae's current-coupon, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage bonds and 10-year government notes widened about 21 basis points, to 237 basis points, the highest since 1986 and 103 basis points higher than on Jan. 15. ...

The markets have become ``utterly unhinged,'' William O'Donnell, a UBS AG government bond strategist ...

Doesn't this feel like last February and March when the subprime market imploded? Except the problems in 2008 are more widespread.

by Calculated Risk on 3/06/2008 04:10:00 PM

UPDATE: Via Housing Wire: Citi's intent is to let their existing portfolio run off, and the $45 billion is the runoff estimate for the next 12 months.

Citi Press Release: Citi Strengthens U.S. Residential Mortgage Business

Citi today announced it intends to reduce residential mortgage assets in its U.S. mortgage business by approximately $45 billion over the next 12 months, a 20 percent decrease from December 2007 levels, and will cut the amount of new loans to be held in portfolio by more than 50 percent in the next year.

by Calculated Risk on 3/06/2008 03:52:00 PM

From Reuters: Bond insurer CIFG loses top rating from Moody's (hat tip tj & the bear)

Moody's cut CIFG's insurance financial strength rating four notches from "AAA" to "A1" ...

Just more write-downs coming ...

by Anonymous on 3/06/2008 02:55:00 PM

I feel a little vindicated by this, as I have been arguing something similar for months now. From the LAT:

A judge declined to sanction Countrywide Financial Corp. on Wednesday for its handling of a borrower's bankruptcy case, saying errors by the lender, including allegedly improper or unexplained fees, didn't reflect bad faith.

But Judge Jeff Bohm of U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Houston said he was disheartened that Countrywide and its lawyers showed "a disregard for the professional and ethical obligations of the legal profession and judicial system."

In a 72-page opinion, the judge said he did not find "clear and convincing" evidence that Countrywide's conduct "transcended from merely negligent bungling to full-blown bad faith." He urged the Calabasas-based company, however, to "reevaluate its policies and procedures" so that its actions wouldn't "undermine the integrity of the bankruptcy system."

Countrywide faces increasing pressure to clean up alleged excesses in servicing home loans, including those of borrowers in bankruptcy.

In the last week, a part of the Justice Department that oversees bankruptcy proceedings has sued Countrywide at least twice, seeking sanctions for alleged abuses.

Countrywide representatives couldn't be reached for comment, nor could a lawyer for the borrower, William Parsley, a resident of Willis,Texas.

Maybe now we can begin to take seriously the structural issues within the mortgage servicing industry that lead to this kind of negligent bungling? A girl can dream . . .