by Calculated Risk on 1/11/2008 12:52:00 AM

From the NY Times: Giant Write-Down Is Seen for Merrill

Merrill Lynch is expected to suffer $15 billion in losses stemming from soured mortgage investments, almost double its original estimate, prompting the firm to raise additional capital from an outside investor.

The whisper number just keeps getting bigger. Merrill reports next week.

by Calculated Risk on 1/10/2008 07:31:00 PM

Here is a graph of the Fed Funds rate, inflation (as measured by Cleveland Fed median CPI), and the unemployment rate since 1990.

Click on graph for larger image.

The inflation rate is the Cleveland Fed median CPI and is a year-over-year rate - so it is a lagged series.

It's not unusual for the YoY inflation rate to be rising as the Fed cuts rates. Usually, as the economy weakens, the inflation rate will fall. That is the current expectation of the Fed.

Note: The graphs shows the Fed Funds rate at 3.75% at the end of January; that is what the market expects following Chairman Bernanke's speech this morning.


Source: Cleveland Fed, Fed Funds Rate Predictions

The market expectations are now solidly for a 50 bps rate cut on January 30th.

by Calculated Risk on 1/10/2008 05:22:00 PM

Herb Greenberg writes: The Real Story on Countrywide...

We’ll know it soon enough, but ... several things would appear apparent ...:

1. The Fed is behind the deal.
2. The Fed is behind the deal because the rumors yesterday of a near bankruptcy were probably true.
3. As part of the deal, the Fed likely agrees to guarantee BofA against Countrywide-related losses.

Read his eight points. Interesting speculation.

by Calculated Risk on 1/10/2008 04:37:00 PM

From MarketWatch: American Express To Take 4th Quarter Charge Of $275M Charge

American Express said it will take a fourth-quarter charge of $275 million, due to slower spending and higher delinquencies and loan write-offs in December.

by Calculated Risk on 1/10/2008 02:24:00 PM

From the WSJ by Damian Paletta, Valerie Bauerlein and James R. Hagerty: Bofa In Talks to Buy Countrywide

Bank of America Corp. is in advanced talks to acquire struggling Countrywide Financial Corp., according to people familiar with the situation.

... two people familiar with the matter said it could occur very soon. It also is possible that an agreement could be delayed or fall apart altogether.

by Calculated Risk on 1/10/2008 12:26:00 PM

From Chairman Bernanke: Financial Markets, the Economic Outlook, and Monetary Policy

Although the TAF and other liquidity-related actions appear to have had some positive effects, such measures alone cannot fully address fundamental concerns about credit quality and valuation, nor do these actions relax the balance sheet constraints on financial institutions. Hence, they cannot eliminate the financial restraints affecting the broader economy. Monetary policy (that is, the management of the short-term interest rate) is the Fed’s best tool for pursuing our macroeconomic objectives, namely to promote maximum sustainable employment and price stability.

Although economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter of last year from the third quarter’s rapid clip, it seems nonetheless, as best we can tell, to have continued at a moderate pace. Recently, however, incoming information has suggested that the baseline outlook for real activity in 2008 has worsened and the downside risks to growth have become more pronounced. Notably, the demand for housing seems to have weakened further, in part reflecting the ongoing problems in mortgage markets. In addition, a number of factors, including higher oil prices, lower equity prices, and softening home values, seem likely to weigh on consumer spending as we move into 2008.

Financial conditions continue to pose a downside risk to the outlook for growth.
emphasis added

Sounds like more rate cuts (no surprise, the market is pricing in a 50bp cut later this month).

by Anonymous on 1/10/2008 10:31:00 AM

I'm a bit busy this morning disabling my telephone and hiding my mutual fund and retirement accounts, but I can get one post up.

From the CS Monitor:

A former computer developer, Thomas Banecke of Sandy Springs, Ga., spent most of the summer baby-sitting a new condo development – usually a plum assignment. But when the Atlanta condo market tanked, foot traffic dwindled to almost zero.

Mr. Banecke is now back in the computer business and is putting his real estate career on hold. In some ways, he says, the cold housing market forced real estate agents, especially rookies, to confront their own abilities, schemes, and dreams. Upfront costs, marketing, association fees, and the crucial contacts are either more costly or harder to procure than an aspiring real estate agent usually expects, Banecke says.

"This kind of thing will wipe up a whole bunch of people who thought they could do this to make a living," he says.

As for McMahon, the Atlanta agent, she still had a nice listing book and plenty of leads when she called it quits. In the end, unreliable buyers, surly sellers, and a lack of office camaraderie contributed to a decision that solidified when home sales and prices dipped. "I was waiting for a time to kind of swing out," she says. She's planning to become a high school science teacher.

One problem for out-of-work agents is that their skills may not transfer easily to other careers. California is waiting to hear on a $9 million federal retraining grant after 6,000 people lost their jobs in the housing industry since September.

But Dr. Baen of the University of North Texas is optimistic about their futures. "These people are hustlers, hard workers. They're used to getting on the phone," he says. "They'll end up in insurance, in mutual funds, in retirement planning, and commodities."

by Calculated Risk on 1/10/2008 09:16:00 AM

From AP: Capital One Cuts 2007 Earnings Forecast

by Calculated Risk on 1/10/2008 01:01:00 AM

A few people have asked me about this article from the LA Times: Lender stung by fears on finances

Delinquent loans create huge liquidity problems for loan servicers like Countrywide because the servicer becomes a middleman between the borrowers and the people who bought their loans.

When the borrower misses payments, as a record number of Countrywide's borrowers are doing now, these contracts require that the company advance those missed payments to investors until it's clear that the amounts won't be recovered.

With Countrywide having a $1.5-trillion servicing portfolio, that puts tremendous strain on its cash flow, Cannon said.

UberNerds already knew all this. From Tanta (February 2007): Mortgage Servicing for UberNerds

... the other side of “float” for the servicer is the usual requirement that the servicer advance interest (and possibly principal, although that’s less common) to the investor when it is “scheduled” to be due but wasn’t actually paid by the borrower. You’ll see, for instance, the term “scheduled/actual” used to refer to a servicing arrangement. That means that the servicer must pass through all scheduled interest each month, whether collected from the borrower or not, but only actually collected principal. Most deals these days are S/A or S/S. (A/A exists, but it’s like “with recourse,” which we talked about on a prior thread. It takes a very well-capitalized, high-risk tolerance investor to accept an A/A deal; most of the ones I see these days are old Freddie Mac MBS that are down to six loans each and just won’t die until the last payment is made.)

Having to advance scheduled interest offsets the float; it’s another way to balance the incentives. It really starts to matter when we get to this thing called “nonaccrual.” Basically, a usual servicing contract will require the servicer to advance interest until the loan is more than 90 days delinquent, after which it is placed in “nonaccrual” status, meaning it is deemed uncollectable and no more interest has to be advanced.
...
Even if the servicer no longer has to keep advancing scheduled interest, though, it has to keep paying property taxes and insurance, if the borrower isn’t paying it, until the property is sold. It also has to cover the other expenses in a foreclosure (unless the contract specifies that the investor or mortgage insurer will advance for certain costs) until the final payday.
emphasis added

You can access Tanta's UberNerd series from the menu bar: The Compleat UberNerd

I believe the top five servicers are, in order, Wells Fargo, Countrywide, WaMu, Citigroup and Chase.

by Calculated Risk on 1/10/2008 12:17:00 AM

Before visiting the confessional, Citi and Merrill are out trying to raise more capital. From the WSJ: Citigroup, Merrill Seek More Foreign Capital

Two of the biggest names on Wall Street are going hat in hand, again, to foreign investors.
...
Merrill is expected to get $3 billion to $4 billion, much of it from a Middle Eastern government investment fund. Citi could get as much as $10 billion, likely all from foreign governments.
...
Both Citi and Merrill are scrambling to nail down the details before they report earnings next week that are expected to include additional losses stemming from their exposure to mortgage-related investments. Together, these additional losses could reach as much as $25 billion.

Meanwhile, Capital One is already in line: Capital One Profit Expected to Fall Short As Loan Woes Worsen

Capital One is expected to announce today that it expects charge-offs of $5.9 billion in 2008, up from its October forecast of $4.9 billion to $5.5 billion, partly because of worsening economic indicators that include rising unemployment.

Ten billion here, ten billion there ... pretty soon you're talking real money.

For interest, I looked up the frequently quoted Senator Everett Dirksen line: "A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you're talking real money." Here is what the Dirksen center says:

Bottom line: the late Senate Minority Leader certainly would have endorsed the meaning behind the phrase, but it is questionable that he ever coined it.

Update, May 25, 2004. A gentleman who called The Center with a reference question relayed that he sat by Dirksen on a flight once and asked him about the famous quote. Dirksen replied, "Oh, I never said that. A newspaper fella misquoted me once, and I thought it sounded so go that I never bothered to deny it."