by Calculated Risk on 10/15/2007 03:07:00 PM

Click on graph for larger image.

From barchart.com.

This chart tells the what. The question is why?

From MarketWatch: Oil futures probing uncharted territory

Crude-oil futures advanced Monday into uncharted territory ... as the market continued to take momentum from supply concerns due to risks to production in the Middle East and declines in U.S. crude inventories.

by Calculated Risk on 10/15/2007 11:09:00 AM

From the WSJ: Nomura to Close U.S. Mortgage Business

Nomura said it would take a loss of $621 million on write-downs of residential mortgages and an additional charge of about $85 million for restructuring the business. That will swing Nomura to a pretax loss of as much as $510 million in the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2007. In the same quarter a year earlier, Nomura posted a net profit of about $2.1 billion.

"This is an extremely regrettable result," said Nobuyuki Koga, Nomura's president and chief executive officer.

It appears Nomura wrote down more than they made from the mortgage business in earlier periods:

... the $620 million Nomura has written off on subprime loans dwarfs the estimated $108 million in revenue it generated on residential mortgage-bond underwriting between 2002 and 2006, according to Dealogic.

Regrettable indeed.

by Anonymous on 10/15/2007 08:44:00 AM

Yves at naked capitalism has a post up this morning on the Citicorp-Related Asset Conduit Kerfuffle (MLEC), which I recommend.

There's also this charming bit from this morning's New York Times:

The problems raised alarms immediately in Washington, because commercial paper is a critical financial pillar for the economy, helping to provide money for home loans, credit cards and airplane leases. At the Treasury, Robert Steel, deputy under secretary for domestic finance, and Anthony Ryan, assistant secretary for financial markets, called top executives from about 30 banks to a meeting in Washington after realizing that the banks were not talking to one another about the crisis, people familiar with the talks said.

As a long-time observer of the banking industry, allow me to observe that one of our major problems has always been that we don't talk to anybody except each other. Trust a reporter to publish talking points about "pillars of the economy" and the Treasury just doin' a little healthy fostering of interbank communication skills.

From where I sit, it seems like a lot of investors no longer want to be the bagholder of the "pillars" of this economy, thanks. And Citicorp doesn't want to honor the guarantees it made to those SIVs in the first place, either. So instead of letting Citi take the consequences of having provided financial backstops to these things, the Treasury department thinks its a good idea to just "square" them (hey! it worked so well with CDOs!).

by Calculated Risk on 10/14/2007 08:48:00 PM

From The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Housing slump affects sales tax collections

Georgia's tax collections fell slightly last month, following a trend across the country where the housing slump has begun to affect state budgets and sparked talk of spending cuts for education and health care.

Collections in Georgia were down $2.3 million in September, compared to the same period in 2006. Sales taxes dropped 10.6 percent. For the first quarter of the fiscal year, which began July 1, overall collections are up 5 percent, or $199 million. The state needs a growth rate of 5 percent or more for the rest of fiscal 2008 to meet its $20.2 billion budget.

Income tax collections rose 5.1 percent last month. However, sales tax collections - which are tied to consumer spending - faltered, dropping $47.6 million over September 2006.

"A big chunk of that is related to the housing downturn," said Kenneth Heaghney, the state's fiscal economist. "The lumber sector is down, building materials are down, and the home furnishing sector is down. That seems to be taking a chunk out of .... the sales tax numbers."

by Calculated Risk on 10/14/2007 07:16:00 PM

From Reuters: Global defaults to reach 4.5-5.5 pct by 08-Barclays

Tighter bank lending standards and slowing economic growth could push global speculative-grade default rates as high as 5.5 percent by mid-2008, up from 1.48 percent currently, Barclays Capital said on Friday.

"When you do get a tightening of lending standards, you do certainly get a slowdown in the economy and that in turn starts to put pressure on corporates (corporate bonds)," Robert McAdie, Barclays Capital's global head of credit strategy, said on a Barclay's conference call.

If tight bank lending conditions persist, the default rate in the United States will likely rise to 6.9 percent from 1.5 percent currently, and in Europe to 7.75 percent, up from 2.9 percent, McAdie said. The global rate will likely reach 4.5 to 5.5 percent, he said.

Click on graph for larger image.

To put these numbers into perspective, this graph shows the U.S. speculative grade default rates from 1990 through 2005. The rate fell even lower in 2006 and is currently around 1.3 percent.

Others see the default rate staying near record low levels:

"Barring an outright recession, we do not expect a material rise in the default rate over 2008," said Daniel Lamy, a credit strategist at JP Morgan, in a note to clients. "We could be looking at defaults in the region of 1.5 percent again next year."

For the housing market, defaults were very low for several years as homeowners in trouble could either sell their homes or refinance at a lower rate. The same has been true for companies in trouble. But now, with rising rates for speculative grade bonds, it will become more difficult for these companies to obtain additional financing, and the default rate will probably rise.

by Calculated Risk on 10/14/2007 12:54:00 PM

According to CNBC: Surprise! Americans Set to Open Wallets This Holiday

It’s going to be a joyful—and profitable—holiday season for retailers, according to the surprising findings of the latest CNBC Wealth in America survey.

Americans plan to spend an average $839 during the holiday season, up 17.6% from last year, the survey says.
...
As the Dow closed Friday above 14,000, it is noteworthy that more than half of Americans surveyed believe a recurrence of the 1987 stock market crash, the anniversary of which is this Friday, is unlikely and about half of Americans believe now is a good time to buy stocks.
...
Much of the economic news in the past few months has focused on the housing industry and, according to CNBC’s survey, an overwhelming 90% of American home owners expect their home process [prices?] to stay the same or increase over the next 12 months by an average of 3.9%. And, nearly 80% of Americans said they don’t increase their spending based on gains in the price of either their homes or stock portfolios.

Meanwhile, in other news, most Americans eat healthy, excercise regularly, 'all the women are strong, all the men are good looking, and all the children are above average'. (from Garrison Keillor) emphasis added

Sorry, this is just too funny.

by Calculated Risk on 10/13/2007 04:31:00 PM

From the NY Times: Banks May Pool Billions to Avert Securities Sell-off

... Citigroup, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase, along with several other financial institutions, have been meeting to come up with a plan to create a fund that could prevent a sharp sell-off in securities owned by bank-affiliated investment vehicles. The meetings, which began three weeks ago, have been orchestrated by senior officials at the Treasury Department, and the discussions have intensified in the last few days.

A broad framework for an agreement could be reached as early as tomorrow ... but many important details still need to be hammered out. Another round of discussions is taking place this weekend, and it still possible that the parties will not reach agreement.

See the article for a few more details. Here is the Reuters take: Treasury officials seek to help battered SIVs

One plan that was discussed at the meeting involved setting up a "super fund" where "each SIV in the market could pledge up to one-third of its assets and get financing," the source said.

The WSJ reported on this last night: Big Banks Push $100 Billion Plan To Avert Crunch

If the banks agree, the plan could be announced as early as Monday, people familiar with the matter said. Citigroup announces third-quarter earnings Monday. The tentative name for the fund is Master-Liquidity Enhancement Conduit, or M-LEC.

by Anonymous on 10/13/2007 12:51:00 PM

In an attempt to keep my mind off of M-LEC, I decided to don a Hazmat suit and go see what those mortgage professionals over at Broker Universe are up to these days. I feel obligated to share this with you.

This is just a beaut:

Who can do Seller Carry Back Loans ?

In August 2005, husband and wife purchase a condo in San Mateo County, CA. for $400,000., and got 100% financing.

They did not occupy the condo, the wife’s brother moved in and he has been paying the mortgage, taxes, and HOA fees from the beginning.

The condo now has an appraised value of $460,000.

The total mortgage balance owed on the condo is $399,000.

The husband and wife would like to sell condo to the wife’s brother.

Can sellers do a 10% carry back, and let the buyer get a 90% purchase loan ?

Loan amount would be $414,000.

Who will do the 90% purchase loan ?

The good news is that, so far, no lender representative has responded to this offering to get screwed. The bad news is that, so far, no lender representative has asked for the broker's real name and state so that the lender can make sure this character is on all "debarred" lists.

The thing I really like about this scenario is that, while the odds are very good that parts of it are untrue, it's even worse if you assume it's all true. I mean, it's probably just some run-of-the-mill liar with a fake appraisal wanting to get out of a bad "investment." But imagine if it were true: there's a couple out there who "bought" a condo without risking any of their own money in down payment. They managed to sucker the brother into carrying the mortgage and all other ownership expenses. Now that they at least believe that the unit has appreciated by 15% in two years or so, they would like to extract that appreciation from their own relative by having him in essence assume their mortgage to get them out of any liability, plus pay them $15,000 out of loan proceeds, plus sign a note requiring him to pay them the balance of the "appreciation" over some period of years, with interest.

In Broker America, this is apparently considered a perfectly legitimate transaction.

by Calculated Risk on 10/13/2007 12:12:00 PM

From the WaPo: Reston Builder's Cancellations Reflect Industry

Comstock Homebuilding Cos. of Reston yesterday reported that even though it sold 81 houses in the third quarter, 78 sales were canceled, a net of just three sales in three months and a striking reminder of the building industry's deepening troubles.

"Market conditions have continued to deteriorate throughout the year," Christopher Clemente, the company's chief executive, said in a statement.

Now that is a cancellation rate!

This is a small builder in the D.C. area. Emphasis added.

by Calculated Risk on 10/12/2007 10:33:00 PM

Here is more on the Citi SIV bailout plan from the WSJ: Big Banks Push $100 Billion Plan To Avert Crunch

The plan could be announced on Monday:

If the banks agree, the plan could be announced as early as Monday, people familiar with the matter said. Citigroup announces third-quarter earnings Monday. The tentative name for the fund is Master-Liquidity Enhancement Conduit, or M-LEC.

Some banks aren't happy with the plan (does this mean Treasury is trying to strong arm other banks into participating?):

The plan is encountering resistance from some big banks. They argue that Citigroup is asking others to help bail out its affiliates and an industry-wide bailout isn't needed.

Some banks are just eyeing the fees:

Two banks in the discussions with Citigroup, Bank of America Corp. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., would participate not because they have SIVs -- they don't -- but because they would earn fees for helping arrange the superconduit, according to people briefed on the discussions. The superconduit's debt would be fully backed by participating banks, they said.

The timing is interesting since Citi and JPMorgan are expected to sell some $5 billion of loans on Monday to help finance the TXU LBO.