by Calculated Risk on 3/07/2007 04:43:00 PM

From Bloomberg: Toll Cancellations Drop; Horton to Miss Projections

``I don't want to be too sophisticated here, but 2007 is going to suck, all 12 months of the calendar year,'' D.R. Horton Chief Executive Officer Donald Tomnitz said at a Citigroup Inc. conference in New York. ``Our future is not as bright as what we would like it to be.''

by Calculated Risk on 3/07/2007 01:03:00 PM

The following graph shows the quarterly "Net Percentage of Domestic Respondents Loosening Standards for Mortgages to Individuals" from the Federal Reserve vs. the year-over-year change in real Personal consumption expenditures (hat tip: John).

Source: Federal Reserve, Figure 2, Panel 3 (inverted), and BEA.

Click on graph for larger image.

Changes in real PCE have tracked changes in lending standards fairly well since 1990 (start of available data from the Fed). The one period of divergence, from 1998 to 2000, might be related to the stock market bubble.

At the start of the year, I proposed three strikes from the housing bust: a sector-specific credit crunch leading to a further decline in the housing market, significant residential construction job losses, and less consumption due to declining homeowner equity extraction.

This graph is related to the third strike, and suggests that tighter lending standards might lead to lower YoY changes in consumption in the coming quarters.

Note: The correlation used data by quarter since Q3 1990. There are 14 degrees of freedom (since some of the YoY changes are not independent). We can be 99% confident that the YoY changes in real PCE are positively correlated with loosening mortgage lending standards.

by Calculated Risk on 3/07/2007 12:31:00 PM

From the BofA Monthly Real Estate Agent Survey for February:

Market Downshifts in February, the Start of the Key Selling Season

Agents noted that traffic fell short of expectations in February, after coming in essentially in-line with expectations in January. Responses worsened over the month, suggesting that traffic lost steam.

by Calculated Risk on 3/07/2007 10:25:00 AM

NOTE: It's important to note that the ADP report is for private sector jobs only, and that the headline BLS number includes government jobs. Over the last year, the BLS has reported an increase of 2.148 million nonfarm jobs, of which 1.866 million were private nonfarm jobs. So about 15% of the overall net jobs added were government jobs, and these are not included in the ADP report.

Click on graph for larger image.

According to ADP:

Private nonfarm employment grew a modest 57,000 from January to February of 2007 on a seasonally adjusted basis.

After taking quite a beating, ADP has revised their methodology:

The February 2007 ADP National Employment Report released on Wednesday March 7, 2007 is the first regularly released ADP Report to incorporate key methodological revisions, including: (1) a larger sample of payrolls; (2) improved procedures for seasonal adjustment; (3) better detection of outliers; and (4) additional detail on private nonfarm employment by select industry and by size of payroll.

I've looked at the differences between the ADP and BLS reports before (see More BLS vs. ADP), and I'll update the analysis soon since ADP has changed their methodology.

by Calculated Risk on 3/07/2007 09:42:00 AM

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reports: Refinance Applications Jump As Mortgage Rates Decline

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, was 671.6, an increase of 7.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 626.1 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 19.9 percent compared with the previous week and was up 15.6 percent compared with the same week one year earlier.

The Refinance Index increased 15 percent to 2234.2 from 1943.5 the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent to 405.3 from 401.3 one week earlier.

Mortgage rates declined:

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 6.04 percent from 6.16 percent ...

The average contract interest rate for one-year ARMs decreased to 5.79 from 5.92 percent ...

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Purchase Index and the 4 and 12 week moving averages since January 2002. The four week moving average is up slightly to 397.2 from 397 for the Purchase Index.

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 46.1 percent of total applications from 43.2 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 21.4 from 21.1 percent of total applications from the previous week.

by Calculated Risk on 3/06/2007 11:45:00 PM

For a variety of reasons, I've decided to take advertising for Calculated
Risk. I've really enjoyed being advertising free. Lately I've found myself spending more time with this blog, and I've also been spending a few more dollars on phone calls, subscriptions and research. So I've been on the fence.

However, over the last couple of weeks, some CR readers have sent me links to two sites scraping CR posts, and presenting it as their own content - and then running ads. This has pushed me over the fence!

When I asked Tanta for her opinion, she responded:

"I hate advertising. I also hate doing the dishes."

To minimize the intrusion, I'll only be adding side-bar and RSS advertising (no animated pop-overs or sound). I might also be adding some side-bar banner ads if anyone wants to advertise directly with this site.

Thanks to everyone that visits this blog, and a special thanks to all the wonderful commenters.

by Calculated Risk on 3/06/2007 05:15:00 PM

Reuters reports: Subprime guidance may hit 60% of Countrywide ARMs

Sixty percent of Countrywide's customers seeking hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs, such as "2-28" loans would fail to qualify under the guidance that urges lenders weigh the borrower's ability to repay at the highest possible rate during the life of the loan, Countrywide CFO Eric Sieracki said at a Raymond James Financial Inc. conference in Orlando, Florida.

It is not clear from the article what percentage of Countrywide borrowers use hybrid ARMs.

Click on graph for larger image.

UPDATE: Here is the Countrywide presentation (hat tip: Cal)

And an audio recording.

The graph is from page 24 of the presentation.

by Calculated Risk on 3/06/2007 04:40:00 PM

Dallas Fed Executive Vice President and Director of Research, Harvey Rosenblum, spoke in Chile yesterday at the Global Interdependence Center. The text of Rosenblum's speech isn't available, but here are the slides he presented: Changing Risks in the Global Economy

Click on graph for larger image.

The first slide shows the increase in percentage of S&P rated junk bonds from 1980 to 2006. Another slide shows that credit spreads are quite low for junk bonds (see presentation, page 5)


This slides shows the firming credit standards for business loans. I expect standards to continue to tighten, especially for CRE and C&D loans.

See this Fed chart for CRE loan delinquency rates. Delinquency rates are rising for CRE loans - up to 1.28% in Q4 2006 from 1.12% in Q3 2006 - but they are still fairly low.


This third slides shows credit standards for consumer loans through 2006 The graph shows rapid tightening for mortgage loans at the end of 2006. However this graph stops before the significant tightening that started in February of 2007.

Right now the only credit crunch is sector-specific - mostly subprime mortgage loans. However credit standards for business loans are starting to tighten too.

by Calculated Risk on 3/06/2007 11:31:00 AM

Citigroup analysts have consistently been some of the most bullish on housing. So I was eagerly awaiting their first research note after the subprime implosion. Citigroup released a research note this morning and boldly stated that they are: "Bullish on Housing". There is no mention of subprime lending issues in the report, except in one chart. I find it hard to believe demand for housing will stabilize with the problems in the subprime sector (see Subprime: The impact on Existing Home Sales in 2007).

by Calculated Risk on 3/05/2007 04:24:00 PM

From MarketWatch (hat tip: yal): Builder CFO doesn't see spring turnaround for housing

Home sales haven't rebounded dramatically so far this spring selling season, which suggests a hoped-for recovery in the housing market won't play out as soon as some had expected, Toll Brothers Inc.'s chief financial offer said Monday. ... [CFO Joel Rassman] said headlines on the subprime market "make customers nervous" and added the housing market could feel significant impact in the next month, such as foreclosures and more speculators quitting the market.

Subprime is not directly "a big part of Toll's market", but real estate works like a sequence of chain reactions. If a subprime borrower can't purchase a starter home, the seller can't buy a move-up home, and that seller can't buy a Toll Brothers McMansion.

For the potential impact of the subprime implosion on the housing market, see Subprime: The impact on Existing Home Sales in 2007