by Calculated Risk on 1/20/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week.

Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in late January or February. If the previous week was the seasonal bottom, that would be very early in the year, but that has happened before.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 24.8% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 23.6%), and down 23.4% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 23.3%). 

Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels has closed significantly!

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of Jan 17th, inventory was at 632 thousand (7-day average), compared to 624 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube

by Calculated Risk on 1/19/2025 07:16:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of January 19, 2025

Monday:
• All US markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $77.88 per barrel and Brent at $80.79 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $74, and Brent was at $81 - so WTI oil prices are up about 5% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.11 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.10 per gallon, so gasoline prices are mostly unchanged year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 1/19/2025 08:14:00 AM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 11 January

The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 11 January. ...

5-11 January 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 49.2% (-7.7%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$144.03 (-5.9%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$70.92 (-13.2%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is close to both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

This is the weakest period of the year for hotel occupancy and the 4-week average will increase seasonally for the next several months.

by Calculated Risk on 1/18/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December

• Housing Discussion with Altos Research's Mike Simonsen

• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December

• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025

• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025

• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 1/18/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key report this week is December Existing Home Sales.

----- Monday, January 20th -----
All US markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day

"Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter." Martin Luther King Jr.

----- Tuesday, January 21st -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Wednesday, January 22nd -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for December (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

----- Thursday, January 23rd -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a increase to 227 thousand from 217 thousand last week.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for January. 

----- Friday, January 24th -----
10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for December from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, up from 4.15 million.

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for January).

by Calculated Risk on 1/17/2025 07:48:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Deaths per Week	518	524	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts. 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths. ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported since Jan 2020.

Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting, I'm continuing to post now that deaths are above the goal again - and at a minimum, I'll continue to post through the Winter.  

Weekly deaths have mostly been declining, however weekly deaths are still above the low of 313 in early June 2024.

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of January 16th:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.

Nationally COVID in wastewater is "HIGH" according to the CDC but is now declining.   

by Calculated Risk on 1/17/2025 03:31:00 PM

From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up three-tenths to 2.1% q/q saar. [Jan 17th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

Following this morning’s data, we boosted our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast by the same amount to +2.6%. [Jan 17th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 3.0 percent on January 17, unchanged from January 16 after rounding. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, an increase in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 3.7 percent to 3.8 percent was offset by a decrease in the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to real GDP growth from -0.37 percentage points to -0.41 percentage points. [Jan 17th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 1/17/2025 12:06:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.15 million in December, unchanged from November’s preliminary pace and up 7.0% from last December’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a somewhat higher YOY % gain, reflecting this December’s business day count compared to last December’s.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 5.6% from a year earlier.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release December Existing Home sales on Friday, January 24th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, up from 4.15 million in November. Last year, the NAR reported sales in December 2023 at 3.88 million SAAR. This will be the third consecutive month with a year-over-year increase following YoY declines every month since July 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 1/17/2025 09:29:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December

A brief excerpt:

Total housing starts in December were above expectations and starts in October and November were revised up.

The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2023 (blue) and 2024 (red).

Total starts were down 4.4% in December compared to December 2023. The YoY decrease in December total starts was mostly due to a difficult comparison to starts in December 2023.

Single family starts have been up year-over-year in 13 of the last 18 months, whereas multi-family has been up year-over-year in only 3 of last 19 months. For the year, total starts were down 2.6% compared to 2023. Single family starts were up 6.6% YoY in 2024, and multi-family were down 18.8% YoY.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 1/17/2025 09:15:00 AM

Earlier from the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial Production (IP) increased 0.9 percent in December after moving up 0.2 percent in November. In December, gains in the output of aircraft and parts contributed 0.2 percentage point to total IP growth following the resolution of a work stoppage at a major aircraft manufacturer. Manufacturing output rose 0.6 percent after gaining 0.4 percent in November. The indexes for mining and utilities climbed 1.8 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively, in December. At 103.2 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in December was 0.5 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization stepped up to 77.6 percent, a rate that is 2.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and close to the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Capacity utilization at 77.6% is 2.1% below the average from 1972 to 2023.  This was above consensus expectations.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production increased to 103.2. This is above the pre-pandemic level.

Industrial production was well above consensus expectations.