by Calculated Risk on 7/28/2025 09:09:00 PM
Monday, July 28, 2025
Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Job Openings
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Hold Perfectly Flat to Start New Week
If any given week of movement in the mortgage rate world came with disclaimer, this one would be: "Warning. An absence of volatility on Monday has no bearing on odds for volatility in the rest of the week." More simply put, you're essentially guaranteed to see more rate movement over the next 4 days simply because today saw none.Tuesday:
Of all of the days this week, Monday was the best candidate for a ho-hum level of movement because it was the only day without any major economic data on tap. Rates are based on bonds, and econ data is a key source of inspiration for bonds. [30 year fixed 6.81%]
emphasis added
• At 9:00 AM ET, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for May. The consensus is for a 2.5% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for May.
• At 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for May. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.
• At 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for June from the BLS.
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in June
by Calculated Risk on 7/28/2025 05:09:00 PM
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in June
Excerpt:
Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in June was 0.55%, unchanged from 0.55% May. Freddie's rate is up year-over-year from 0.50% in June 2024, however, this is below the pre-pandemic level of 0.60%.
Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic.
Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in May was 0.53%, down from 0.55% in April. The serious delinquency rate is up year-over-year from 0.48% in May 2024, however, this is below the pre-pandemic lows of 0.65%.
Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in June was 0.53%, unchanged from 0.53% in May. The serious delinquency rate is up year-over-year from 0.48% in June 2024, however, this is below the pre-pandemic lows of 0.65%.
HVS: Q2 2025 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
by Calculated Risk on 7/28/2025 01:09:00 PM
The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q2 2025 today.
The results of this survey were significantly distorted by the pandemic in 2020.
This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. However, there are serious questions about the accuracy of this survey.
This survey might show the trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers. Analysts probably shouldn't use the HVS to estimate the excess vacant supply or household formation, or rely on the homeownership rate, except as a guide to the trend.
National vacancy rates in the second quarter 2025 were 7.0 percent for rental housing and 1.1 percent for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate was higher than the rate in the second quarter 2024 (6.6 percent) and not statistically different from the rate in the first quarter 2025 (7.1 percent).
The homeowner vacancy rate of 1.1 percent was higher than the rate in the second quarter 2024 (0.9 percent) and virtually the same as the rate in the first quarter 2025 (1.1 percent).
The homeownership rate of 65.0 percent was not statistically different from the rate in the second quarter 2024 (65.6 percent) and not statistically different than the rate in the first quarter 2025 (65.1 percent).
emphasis added
The HVS homeownership rate was decreased to 65.0% in Q2, from 65.1% in Q1.
The results in Q2 and Q3 2020 were distorted by the pandemic and should be ignored.
The homeowner vacancy rate declined sharply during the pandemic and includes homes that are vacant and for sale (so this mirrors the low but increasing levels of existing home inventory).
TSA: Airline Travel Mostly Unchanged YoY
by Calculated Risk on 7/28/2025 11:01:00 AM
This data is as of July 27, 2025.
This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for the last 6 years.
The red line is the seven-day average for 2025.
Housing July 28th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.4% Week-over-week; Down 10% from 2019 Levels
by Calculated Risk on 7/28/2025 08:11:00 AM
Sunday, July 27, 2025
Sunday Night Futures
by Calculated Risk on 7/27/2025 07:46:00 PM
Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of July 20, 2025
Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, the Q2 2025 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership from the Census Bureau.
• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July.
From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 28 and DOW futures are up 168 (fair value).
Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $65.16 per barrel and Brent at $68.44 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $79, and Brent was at $81 - so WTI oil prices are down about 20% year-over-year.
Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.12 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.49 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.37 year-over-year.
FOMC Preview: No Change to Fed Funds Rate
by Calculated Risk on 7/27/2025 09:01:00 AM
Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent. Market participants currently expect the FOMC to cut the Fed Funds rate 25bp in September, with a second rate cut in December.
We do not expect any policy changes at the July Fed meeting. Most FOMC participants likely view this meeting as a placeholder. The balance of risks remains the same as in June: to the upside on inflation and to the downside on the labor market. The Fed will have a lot more information on how these risks have evolved by the September meeting. ...
August’s Jackson Hole Symposium further reduces the urgency to guide markets next week. The Fed will have an additional month’s worth of data by then. With the benefit of hindsight, it is clear that Powell used his Jackson Hole speech last year to signal the 50bp cut in September. This year, Powell will most likely be speaking on the morning of August 22. Although the focus will be on the framework review, we see a strong chance that Powell will also provide a signal on the near-term policy trajectory.
emphasis added
GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Projection Date | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | |
Jun 2025 | 1.2 to 1.5 | 1.5 to 1.8 | 1.7 to 2.0 | |
Mar 2025 | 1.5 to 1.9 | 1.6 to 1.9 | 1.6 to 2.0 |
The unemployment rate was at 4.1% in June. The unemployment rate will likely increase later this year.
Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Projection Date | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | |
Jun 2025 | 4.4 to 4.5 | 4.3 to 4.6 | 4.2 to 4.6 | |
Mar 2025 | 4.3 to 4.4 | 4.2 to 4.5 | 4.1 to 4.4 |
As of May 2025, PCE inflation increased 2.3% year-over-year (YoY), up from 2.2% YoY in April. Early estimate is PCE inflation will increase to 2.6% YoY in June. There will likely be some further increases in the 2nd half of 2025, but the forecast range is probably reasonable.
Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Projection Date | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | |
Jun 2025 | 2.8 to 3.2 | 2.3-2.6 | 2.0 to 2.2 | |
Mar 2025 | 2.6 to 2.9 | 2.1 to 2.3 | 2.0 to 2.1 |
PCE core inflation increased 2.7% YoY in May, up from 2.6% YoY in April. There will likely be further increase in core PCE inflation.
Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Projection Date | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | |
Jun 2025 | 2.9 to 3.4 | 2.3-2.6 | 2.0 to 2.2 | |
Mar 2025 | 2.7 to 3.0 | 2.1 to 2.4 | 2.0 to 2.1 |
Saturday, July 26, 2025
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.93 million SAAR in June
by Calculated Risk on 7/26/2025 02:11:00 PM
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.93 million SAAR in June; Unchanged YoY
• New Home Sales Increase to 627,000 Annual Rate in June
• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in June and a Look Ahead to July Sales
• NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions Tightened in Q2
• Goldman's Mid-Year Housing Outlook
• California Home Sales Down Slightly YoY in June
This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.
Schedule for Week of July 27, 2025
by Calculated Risk on 7/26/2025 08:11:00 AM
The key reports this week are the advance estimate of Q2 GDP and the July employment report.
Other key reports include May Case-Shiller house prices, July ISM manufacturing index and July vehicle sales.
The FOMC meets this week and no change to the Fed Funds rate is expected.
10:00 AM: the Q2 2025 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership from the Census Bureau.
10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July.
This graph shows the year-over-year change in the seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The consensus is for a 2.5% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for May.
9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for May. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.
This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.
Jobs openings increased in May to 7.77 million from 7.40 million in April.
The number of job openings (yellow) were down 2% year-over-year and Quits were down 2% year-over-year.
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for June. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 75,000 payroll jobs added in June, up from -33,000 in May.
8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter (advance estimate), and annual update. The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.5% annualized in Q2, up from -0.5% in Q1.
10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for June. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in the index.
2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to the Fed Funds rate is expected.
2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 220 thousand from 217 thousand last week.
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays, June 2025. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%. PCE prices are expected to be up 2.5% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.7% YoY.
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for July.
There were 147,000 jobs added in June, and the unemployment rate was at 4.1%.
This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for July. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 49.8, up from 49.0 in June.
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for June. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in construction spending.
10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for July).
This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.
Friday, July 25, 2025
Realtor.com Reports Most Active "For Sale" Inventory since November 2019
by Calculated Risk on 7/25/2025 05:01:00 PM
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For June, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 28.9% YoY, but still down 12.9% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels.
Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends: Latest Data as of July 19
• Active inventory climbed 24.4% year over year
The number of homes active on the market climbed 24.4% year over year, slightly lower than last week. This represents the 89th consecutive week of annual gains in inventory. There were more than 1 million homes for sale again last week, marking the 11th week in a row over the threshold and the highest inventory level since November 2019.
• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—rose 7.2% year over year
New listings rose again last week on an annual basis by 7.2% compared with the same period last year. The June Housing Report showed that new listings declined month over month for the second consecutive month after peaking in April. This figure suggests that the trend could turn around soon.
• The median list price was up 0.8% year over year
The median list price climbed again this week, but is still down 0.2% year to date. The median list price per square foot—which adjusts for changes in home size—rose 0.5% year over year. With inventory on the rise and more than 1 in 5 sellers cutting prices, the market continues to soften and shift toward more buyer favorability.