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Monday, July 28, 2025

Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Job Openings

by Calculated Risk on 7/28/2025 09:09:00 PM

Mortgage Rates From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Hold Perfectly Flat to Start New Week

If any given week of movement in the mortgage rate world came with disclaimer, this one would be: "Warning. An absence of volatility on Monday has no bearing on odds for volatility in the rest of the week." More simply put, you're essentially guaranteed to see more rate movement over the next 4 days simply because today saw none.

Of all of the days this week, Monday was the best candidate for a ho-hum level of movement because it was the only day without any major economic data on tap. Rates are based on bonds, and econ data is a key source of inspiration for bonds. [30 year fixed 6.81%]
emphasis added
Tuesday:
• At 9:00 AM ET, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for May. The consensus is for a 2.5% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for May.

• At 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for May. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

• At 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for June from the BLS.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in June

by Calculated Risk on 7/28/2025 05:09:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in June

Excerpt:

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in June was 0.55%, unchanged from 0.55% May. Freddie's rate is up year-over-year from 0.50% in June 2024, however, this is below the pre-pandemic level of 0.60%.

Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

Fannie Freddie Serious Deliquency RateFannie Mae reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in May was 0.53%, down from 0.55% in April. The serious delinquency rate is up year-over-year from 0.48% in May 2024, however, this is below the pre-pandemic lows of 0.65%.

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in June was 0.53%, unchanged from 0.53% in May. The serious delinquency rate is up year-over-year from 0.48% in June 2024, however, this is below the pre-pandemic lows of 0.65%.
There is much more in the article.

HVS: Q2 2025 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates

by Calculated Risk on 7/28/2025 01:09:00 PM

The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q2 2025 today.

The results of this survey were significantly distorted by the pandemic in 2020.


This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates.  However, there are serious questions about the accuracy of this survey.

This survey might show the trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers. Analysts probably shouldn't use the HVS to estimate the excess vacant supply or household formation, or rely on the homeownership rate, except as a guide to the trend.
National vacancy rates in the second quarter 2025 were 7.0 percent for rental housing and 1.1 percent for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate was higher than the rate in the second quarter 2024 (6.6 percent) and not statistically different from the rate in the first quarter 2025 (7.1 percent).

The homeowner vacancy rate of 1.1 percent was higher than the rate in the second quarter 2024 (0.9 percent) and virtually the same as the rate in the first quarter 2025 (1.1 percent).

The homeownership rate of 65.0 percent was not statistically different from the rate in the second quarter 2024 (65.6 percent) and not statistically different than the rate in the first quarter 2025 (65.1 percent).
emphasis added
Homeownership Rate Click on graph for larger image.

The Red dots are the decennial Census homeownership rates for April 1st, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. 

The HVS homeownership rate was decreased to 65.0% in Q2, from 65.1% in Q1.  

The results in Q2 and Q3 2020 were distorted by the pandemic and should be ignored.


Homeowner Vacancy RateThe HVS homeowner vacancy was unchanged at 1.1% in Q2 from 1.1% in Q1.

The homeowner vacancy rate declined sharply during the pandemic and includes homes that are vacant and for sale (so this mirrors the low but increasing levels of existing home inventory).

Once again - this probably shows the general trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers.



Rental Vacancy RateThe rental vacancy rate decreased to 7.0% in Q2 from 7.1% in Q1.  This is up from the low of 5.6% in 2021 and 2022.

The quarterly HVS is the timeliest survey on households, but there are many questions about the accuracy of this survey.

TSA: Airline Travel Mostly Unchanged YoY

by Calculated Risk on 7/28/2025 11:01:00 AM

Here are the daily travel numbers from the TSA.

This data is as of July 27, 2025.

TSA Traveler Data Click on graph for larger image.

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for the last 6 years.

Air travel is essentially unchanged YoY (7-day average up about 0.5% YoY).

The red line is the seven-day average for 2025.  

2020 (black) was the worst year for air travel due to COVID.  Each year that followed showed a pickup in air travel, with 2023 (yellow) finally reaching 2019 levels (light blue).

There is no growth this year with air travel mostly tracking 2024 levels.


Housing July 28th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.4% Week-over-week; Down 10% from 2019 Levels

by Calculated Risk on 7/28/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.4% week-over-week.

Inventory is now up 37.8% from the seasonal bottom in January.   Usually, inventory is up about 22% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 is seeing a larger than normal increase in inventory.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Altos Year-over-year Home InventoryClick on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 27.0% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 28.2%), and down 10.3% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 10.8%). 

It now appears inventory will be close to 2019 levels towards the end of 2025.

Altos Home InventoryThis second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of July 25th, inventory was at 860 thousand (7-day average), compared to 857 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on Youtube

Sunday, July 27, 2025

Sunday Night Futures

by Calculated Risk on 7/27/2025 07:46:00 PM

Weekend:
Schedule for Week of July 20, 2025

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, the Q2 2025 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership from the Census Bureau.

• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 28 and DOW futures are up 168 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $65.16 per barrel and Brent at $68.44 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $79, and Brent was at $81 - so WTI oil prices are down about 20% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.12 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.49 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.37 year-over-year.

FOMC Preview: No Change to Fed Funds Rate

by Calculated Risk on 7/27/2025 09:01:00 AM

Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 percent.    Market participants currently expect the FOMC to cut the Fed Funds rate 25bp in September, with a second rate cut in December.


From BofA:
We do not expect any policy changes at the July Fed meeting. Most FOMC participants likely view this meeting as a placeholder. The balance of risks remains the same as in June: to the upside on inflation and to the downside on the labor market. The Fed will have a lot more information on how these risks have evolved by the September meeting. ...

August’s Jackson Hole Symposium further reduces the urgency to guide markets next week. The Fed will have an additional month’s worth of data by then. With the benefit of hindsight, it is clear that Powell used his Jackson Hole speech last year to signal the 50bp cut in September. This year, Powell will most likely be speaking on the morning of August 22. Although the focus will be on the framework review, we see a strong chance that Powell will also provide a signal on the near-term policy trajectory.
emphasis added
Projections will NOT be released at this meeting. For review, here are the June projections.  

Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been below expectations, the unemployment rate and inflation close to expectations.

The BEA's estimate for Q1 GDP showed real growth at -0.5% annualized. Most estimates for Q2 GDP, are around 2.5% (as distortions in Q1 reverse).  That would put the first half real growth at 1.0% annualized, and it is likely growth will also be slow the 2nd half of 2025.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1
Projection Date202520262027
Jun 20251.2 to 1.51.5 to 1.81.7 to 2.0
Mar 20251.5 to 1.91.6 to 1.91.6 to 2.0
1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 4.1% in June.  The unemployment rate will likely increase later this year.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2
Projection Date202520262027
Jun 20254.4 to 4.54.3 to 4.64.2 to 4.6
Mar 20254.3 to 4.44.2 to 4.54.1 to 4.4
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of May 2025, PCE inflation increased 2.3% year-over-year (YoY), up from 2.2% YoY in April. Early estimate is PCE inflation will increase to 2.6% YoY in June.  There will likely be some further increases in the 2nd half of 2025, but the forecast range is probably reasonable.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1
Projection Date202520262027
Jun 20252.8 to 3.22.3-2.62.0 to 2.2
Mar 20252.6 to 2.92.1 to 2.32.0 to 2.1

PCE core inflation increased 2.7% YoY in May, up from 2.6% YoY in April.  There will likely be further increase in core PCE inflation. 

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1
Projection Date202520262027
Jun 20252.9 to 3.42.3-2.62.0 to 2.2
Mar 20252.7 to 3.02.1 to 2.42.0 to 2.1

Saturday, July 26, 2025

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.93 million SAAR in June

by Calculated Risk on 7/26/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Existing Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.93 million SAAR in June; Unchanged YoY

New Home Sales Increase to 627,000 Annual Rate in June

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in June and a Look Ahead to July Sales

NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions Tightened in Q2

Goldman's Mid-Year Housing Outlook

California Home Sales Down Slightly YoY in June

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

Schedule for Week of July 27, 2025

by Calculated Risk on 7/26/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key reports this week are the advance estimate of Q2 GDP and the July employment report.

Other key reports include May Case-Shiller house prices, July ISM manufacturing index and July vehicle sales.

The FOMC meets this week and no change to the Fed Funds rate is expected.

----- Monday, July 28th -----

10:00 AM: the Q2 2025 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership from the Census Bureau.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July.

----- Tuesday, July 29th -----

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for May.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in the seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 2.5% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for May.

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for May. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for June from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings increased in May to 7.77 million from 7.40 million in April.

The number of job openings (yellow) were down 2% year-over-year and Quits were down 2% year-over-year.

----- Wednesday, July 30th -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for June. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 75,000 payroll jobs added in June, up from -33,000 in May.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter (advance estimate), and annual update. The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.5% annualized in Q2, up from -0.5% in Q1.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for June. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in the index.

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to the Fed Funds rate is expected.

2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

----- Thursday, July 31st -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 220 thousand from 217 thousand last week.

8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays, June 2025. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%.  PCE prices are expected to be up 2.5% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.7% YoY.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for July.

----- Friday, August 1st -----

Employment per month8:30 AM: Employment Report for July.   The consensus is for 118,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 4.2%.

There were 147,000 jobs added in June, and the unemployment rate was at 4.1%.

This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for July. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 49.8, up from 49.0 in June. 

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for June. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in construction spending.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for July). 

Vehicle SalesLate: Light vehicle sales for July from the BEA. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 16.2 million SAAR in July, up from 15.3 million in June (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

Friday, July 25, 2025

Realtor.com Reports Most Active "For Sale" Inventory since November 2019

by Calculated Risk on 7/25/2025 05:01:00 PM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For June, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 28.9% YoY, but still down 12.9% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 


Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends: Latest Data as of July 19
Active inventory climbed 24.4% year over year

The number of homes active on the market climbed 24.4% year over year, slightly lower than last week. This represents the 89th consecutive week of annual gains in inventory. There were more than 1 million homes for sale again last week, marking the 11th week in a row over the threshold and the highest inventory level since November 2019.

New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—rose 7.2% year over year

New listings rose again last week on an annual basis by 7.2% compared with the same period last year. The June Housing Report showed that new listings declined month over month for the second consecutive month after peaking in April. This figure suggests that the trend could turn around soon.

The median list price was up 0.8% year over year

The median list price climbed again this week, but is still down 0.2% year to date. The median list price per square foot—which adjusts for changes in home size—rose 0.5% year over year. With inventory on the rise and more than 1 in 5 sellers cutting prices, the market continues to soften and shift toward more buyer favorability.
With inventory climbing, and sales depressed, months-of-supply is at the highest level since 2016 putting downward pressure on house prices in an increasing number of areas.