by Calculated Risk on 10/07/2024 07:17:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Highest Mortgage Rates in 2 Months

It's been a strange and frustrating couple of weeks for anyone who mistakenly believed that mortgage rates would move lower after the Fed rate cut. ... Bottom line, markets got locked into the belief that data would slowly deteriorate (with a lot of weight being given to the last few jobs reports) only to see the most recent jobs report say "not so fast!" There's a bit of a re-set happening at the moment. We can't know exactly how big it will be until we get through more econ data. [30 year fixed 6.62%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 6:00 AM ET, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for September.

• At 8:30 AM, Trade Balance report for August from the Census Bureau.  The consensus is for the deficit to be $71.4 billion in August, from $78.8 billion in July.

by Calculated Risk on 10/07/2024 11:42:00 AM

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Insurance Costs "Spike", Especially in Florida

Brief excerpt:

The largest insurance increases are in Florida (for obvious reasons - stay safe this week with Hurricane Milton).

• While monthly principal, interest, and property tax obligations are up an average 15-17% since the beginning of 2020, the average monthly property insurance payment is up a whopping 52% over that same period

• In New Orleans, as well as Florida markets such as Deltona, Jacksonville and Cape Coral, monthly property insurance payments increased more than 80%

• Premiums also surged in areas with rising home values, including Utah; Boise, Idaho; and Midwest/Eastern Slope markets like Omaha, Denver and Colorado Springs, which have faced increased risks from tornados and hail damage

“Annual price growth slowed to +3.0%”

There is much more in the newsletter.

by Calculated Risk on 10/07/2024 09:40:00 AM

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Declined in September

Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in September compared to August. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) fell to 203.0, a decline of 5.3% from a year ago. The seasonal adjustment to the index amplified the change for the month, as non-seasonally adjusted values fell slightly. The non-adjusted price in September decreased by 0.1% compared to August, moving the unadjusted average price down 4.9% year over year.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.

The Manheim index suggests used car prices decreased in September (seasonally adjusted) and were down 5.3% year-over-year (YoY).

by Calculated Risk on 10/07/2024 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.4% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 48.6% from the February seasonal bottom.  

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 36.7% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 36.7%), and down 23.1% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 23.4%). 

Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is closing.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of October 4th, inventory was at 734 thousand (7-day average), compared to 731 thousand the prior week. 

This is the highest level of inventory since May 2020.  

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

by Calculated Risk on 10/06/2024 07:34:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of October 6, 2024

Monday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are mostly unchanged (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $73.98 per barrel and Brent at $77.59 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $83, and Brent was at $88 - so WTI oil prices are down about 10% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.13 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.71 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.58 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 10/06/2024 08:14:00 AM

Note: I covered apartments and offices in the newsletter: Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Unchanged in Q3; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High

From Moody’s Analytics economists: Multifamily Performance Steadied, Office Stress Continued to Manifest, Retail Vacancy Declined, And Industrial Cooled Down

The Q3 2024 data indicated a slight decrease in the longstanding 10.4% vacancy rate for the retail sector, dropping to 10.3% this quarter. Asking rents saw a marginal increase of 0.3% to $21.85, while effective rents rose by 0.4% to $24.87 per square foot. Consumer spending in the third quarter has thus far exceeded expectations, particularly in July, which experienced a 1.1% increase. Although August saw a modest 0.1% increase, it surpassed the anticipated -0.2% decrease. These results were propelled by robust performance in online purchases and core retail sales, excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services, alongside a decline in the unemployment rate following four consecutive monthly increases.

This graph shows the strip mall vacancy rate starting in 1980 (prior to 2000 the data is annual). 

Back in the '80s, there was overbuilding in the mall sector even as the vacancy rate was rising. This was due to the very loose commercial lending that led to the S&L crisis.

In the mid-'00s, mall investment picked up as mall builders followed the "roof tops" of the residential boom (more loose lending). This led to the vacancy rate moving higher even before the recession started. Then there was a sharp increase in the vacancy rate during the recession and financial crisis.

Recently the vacancy rate has held fairly steady at a high level as online shopping continues to impact brick and mortar stores.

by Calculated Risk on 10/05/2024 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

• Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Unchanged in Q3; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High

• Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased Slightly in August; Up 3.7% Year-over-year

• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in August and a Look Ahead to September Sales

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 10/05/2024 08:11:00 AM

The key economic report this week is September CPI.

Other key indicators include September PPI and the August trade deficit.

----- Monday, October 7th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, October 8th -----
6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for September.

8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for August from the Census Bureau.  The consensus is for the deficit to be $71.4 billion in August, from $78.8 billion in July.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

----- Wednesday, October 9th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Minutes Meeting of September 17-18, 2024

----- Thursday, October 10th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 228 thousand initial claims, up from 225 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for September from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.3% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.2% YoY.

----- Friday, October 11th -----
8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for September from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in PPI, and a 0.2% increase in core PPI.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for October).

by Calculated Risk on 10/04/2024 07:00:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Deaths per Week	1,120	1,287	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts, 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.

Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting, I'm continuing to post now that deaths are above the goal again.  

Weekly deaths are almost quadruple the low of 302 in early June but are now declining and will likely continue to decline based on wastewater sampling.

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of October 3rd:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.

COVID in wastewater is now declining suggesting weekly deaths will continue to decline.

by Calculated Risk on 10/04/2024 03:41:00 PM

From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, our 3Q GDP tracking estimate is up three-tenths to 2.6% q/q saar. [Oct 4th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +3.2% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our domestic final sales estimate unchanged at +2.8%. [Oct 3rd estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.5 percent on October 1, down from 3.1 percent on September 27. [Oct 1st estimate]