by Calculated Risk on 12/15/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.5% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 13.7% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 15.3%), and down 5.6% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 4.1%). 

Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed most of that gap, however inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of December 12th, inventory was at 775 thousand (7-day average), compared to 795 thousand the prior week.  

Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

by Calculated Risk on 12/14/2025 06:15:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of December 14, 2025

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 10.8, down from 18.7.

• 10:00 AM, The December NAHB homebuilder survey.  The consensus is for a reading of 39, up from 38 the previous month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are little changed (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $57.44 per barrel and Brent at $61.12 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $71, and Brent was at $74 - so WTI oil prices are down about 20% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.87 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $2.98 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.11 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 12/14/2025 10:23:00 AM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory, new listings and median prices. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For November, Realtor.com reported active inventory was up 12.6% YoY, but still down 11.7% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends: U.S. Market Update (Week Ending Dec. 6, 2025)

• Active inventory climbed 12.6% year over year

Inventory growth continues to be driven more by homes lingering on the market than by new listings. With roughly 1.01 million homes for sale last week, the 32nd consecutive week above the million-mark, buyers have a wider selection, while sellers face mounting competition. Importantly, this week bucked the recent trend of slowing inventory growth, and the annual increase in homes for sale was larger than the previous week.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—fell by 7.4% year over year

New listings fell again this week compared to the same week in 2024, accelerating from the previous week’s decline. New listings are up 5.5% year to date and have shown modest positive growth for most of the fall, suggesting that the overall trend toward more new listings coming on the market could be shifting this winter.

• The median listing price fell 1.2% year over year

The median list price dropped compared to the same week one year ago, though the retreat has moderated closer to year-long trends. Adjusting for home size, the price per square foot fell 1.1% year over year, dropping for the 14th consecutive week. The price per square foot grew steadily for almost two years, but the combination of slower sales, rising inventory, and increased price cuts is now clearly reflected in lower listing values, indicating that the market is rebalancing toward buyers.

by Calculated Risk on 12/13/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

• Mortgage Rates: The New Normal

• Lawler: More on the “Neutral” Interest Rate (R*)

• December ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices "Firmed" in November, Up 0.8% Year-over-year

• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 12/13/2025 08:11:00 AM

Special Note: There is still uncertainty on when some economic reports will be released.

The key economic reports this week are the November Employment report, October Retail Sales, November CPI, and November Existing Home Sales.

For manufacturing, the December New York, Philly and Kansas City Fed surveys will be released this week.


----- Monday, December 15th -----
8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 10.8, down from 18.7.

10:00 AM: The December NAHB homebuilder survey.  The consensus is for a reading of 39, up from 38 the previous month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

----- Tuesday, December 16th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for November.   The consensus is for 50,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.4%.

There were 119,000 jobs added in September, and the unemployment rate was at 4.4%.

This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for October will be released.  The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in retail sales.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

----- Wednesday, December 17th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for November (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

----- Thursday, December 18th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  There were 236,000 initial claims last week.

8:30 AM ET, The Consumer Price Index for November from the BLS.  The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 3.1% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.1% YoY.

8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 2.2, up from -1.7.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for December.

----- Friday, December 19th -----
10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for November from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.15 million SAAR, up from 4.10 million.

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for December).

by Calculated Risk on 12/12/2025 04:21:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a Goldman Sachs research note on shelter inflation:

[R]apid multifamily supply growth amid a cooler labor market, slower immigration, and an already rising vacancy rate is likely to keep new lease rent growth subdued in 2026. ... We forecast that PCE housing inflation will slow to 0.22% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year in December 2025 and 0.16% month-over-month and 2.1% year-over-year in December 2026.

Under our forecast, the contribution from shelter inflation to year-over-year core PCE inflation shrinks from 0.7pp in the latest report to 0.6pp by December 2025 and 0.4pp by December 2026, versus 0.6pp on average in 2018-2019.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through September 2025.

Housing (PCE) was up 3.7% YoY in September, down from 3.9% in August and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.

Economists at Goldman Sachs expect this will decline to 2.1% YoY by December 2026.  This is a key reason why the FOMC expects inflation to decline in 2026 (along with less impact on inflation from tariffs).

by Calculated Risk on 12/12/2025 11:14:00 AM

Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still under pressure! 

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 6 December

he U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 6 December. ...

30 November through 6 December 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 57.2% (-3.2%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$160.11 (-0.5%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$91.57 (-3.7%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed black is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking well behind last year but is close to the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will decrease seasonally until early next year.

On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

by Calculated Risk on 12/12/2025 08:05:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

A brief excerpt:

Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory.

November sales will be mostly for contracts signed in September and October, and mortgage rates averaged 6.35% in September and 6.25% in October (lower than for closed sales in October).

In November, sales in these markets were down 5.7% YoY. Last month, in October, these same markets were up 2.8% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There was one fewer working days in November 2025 (18) as in November 2024 (19). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be more than the change in NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
...
This was just several more early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 12/11/2025 08:25:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.

by Calculated Risk on 12/11/2025 04:40:00 PM

From Cotality U.S. home equity dips further this fall

Cotality ... today released the Homeowner Equity Report (HER) for the third quarter of 2025. The report reveals a mixed picture of homeowner equity gains across the United States.

Borrower equity decreased year over year, declining by $373.8 billion or 2.1%. That decline translates to an overall net equity to $17.1 trillion for homes with a mortgage. Homeowner equity peaked at close to $17.7 trillion in the second quarter of 2024 and has since oscillated between $17 trillion and $17.6 trillion.

"As the pace of home price growth slows and markets recalibrate from pandemic peaks, we’re seeing a clear shift in equity trends,” said Cotality Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp. “Negative equity is on the rise, driven in part by affordability challenges that have led many first-time and lower-income buyers to over-leverage through piggyback loans or minimal down payments. While overall home equity remains elevated, recent purchasers with smaller down payments may now face negative equity.”
...
While the share of homeowners in negative equity reduced in the second quarter of this year, it ticked up again in the third quarter. In the current quarter, 2.2% of homeowners have negative equity or 1.2 million properties. Another way to think about it is that there’s been a 21% year-over-year rise in the number of homeowners in negative equity with 216,000 more homes falling into the category in the third quarter, a trend that has been gaining steam and signals possible market difficulties ahead.

Compared to the second quarter, there has been a 6.7% increase in the number of mortgaged residential properties sitting in negative equity. This slide in equity tracks with market cycles as the spring homebuying season faded into the slower fall market, during which period there’s a more consistent weakness in home price gains across markets.

This graph compares the distribution of equity (and negative equity) in Q3 vs. Q2. 

About 1.2 million properties are in negative equity (owe more than the property is worth), but this is a fairly small percentage historically.

Most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes.