by Calculated Risk on 4/27/2025 08:47:00 AM

This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices.

SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022.  Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was priced about 24% higher than the old random length contract for the period when both contracts were available.

This graph shows CME random length framing futures through August 2022 (blue), and the new physically-delivered Lumber Futures (LBR) contract starting in August 2022 (Red).

On April 25, 2025, LBR was at $573.00 per 1,000 board feet, up 11% from a year ago.

Click on graph for larger image.

There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices frequently peak in the first half of the year.

Last year, prices bottomed in July at $449.00 per 1,000 board feet.

The recent year-over-year increase might be due to the tariffs.  

Weekly Schedule

by Calculated Risk on 4/26/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in March; Down 2.4% YoY

• New Home Sales Increase to 724,000 Annual Rate in March

• NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions Tightened in Q1 pre-Tariffs

• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March

• California Home Sales Up 4.9% YoY in March; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 4/26/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key report scheduled for this week is the April employment report.

Other key reports include the advance estimate of Q1 GDP, March Personal Income and Outlays, February Case-Shiller house prices, and April vehicle sales.

For manufacturing, the April Dallas Fed manufacturing survey, and the ISM index will be released.

----- Monday, April 28th -----
10:00 AM: the Q1 2025 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership from the Census Bureau.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for April.

----- Tuesday, April 29th -----
9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for February.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 4.8% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for February, up from 4.7% YoY.

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for February. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for March from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings decreased in February to 7.57 million from 7.76 million in January.

The number of job openings (black) were down 10% year-over-year.

----- Wednesday, April 30th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for April. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 130,000 payroll jobs added in April, down from 155,000 added in March.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2025 (Advance estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 0.4% annualized in Q1, down from 2.4% in Q4.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for April. The consensus is for a reading of 45.5, down from 47.6 in March.

10:00 AM: Personal Income and Outlays, March 2025. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.6% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.  PCE prices are expected to be up 2.6% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.2% YoY.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for March. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in the index.

----- Thursday, May 1st -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 218 thousand, down from 222 thousand last week.

10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index for April. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 48.1, down from 49.0 in March.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for March. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in construction spending.

All day: Light vehicle sales for April. The consensus expectation is for light vehicle sales to be 16.8 million SAAR in April, down from 17.8 million in March (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the sales rate for the previous month.

The WardsAuto estimate is for sales of 17.4 million SAAR in April.

----- Friday, May 2nd -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for April.   The consensus is for 130,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%.

There were 228,000 jobs added in March, and the unemployment rate was at 4.2%.

This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 4/25/2025 06:55:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So, I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Deaths per Week	442	444	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts. 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths. ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported since Jan 2023.

Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting in June 2023 (low of 314 deaths), I've continued to post since deaths are above the goal again - and I'll continue to post until weekly deaths are once again below the goal.

Weekly deaths are now decreasing following the winter pickup and are heading towards the lows of last June.

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of April 24th:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.  This has been moving down.

Nationally COVID in wastewater is "Low".

by Calculated Risk on 4/25/2025 03:53:00 PM

From the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for March 2025. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 43 states, decreased in four states, and remained stable in three, for a three-month diffusion index of 78. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 39 states, decreased in seven states, and remained stable in four, for a one-month diffusion index of 64. For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar coincident index for the entire United States. The Philadelphia Fed’s U.S. index increased 0.6 percent over the past three months and 0.2 percent in March.
emphasis added

Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. An explanation from the Philly Fed:

The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.

Click on map for larger image.

Here is a map of the three-month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the Pandemic and also at the worst of the Great Recession.

The map is mostly positive on a three-month basis.

Source: Philly Fed.

And here is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. 

This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

In March, 41 states had increasing activity including minor increases.

by Calculated Risk on 4/25/2025 01:00:00 PM

Yesterday, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on March existing home sales, NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in March; Down 2.4% YoY, I noted:

On a month-over-month basis, median prices increased 1.7% from February and are now down 5.4% from the June 2024 peak. This is less than the normal seasonal increase in the median price for March. Typically, the NAR median price increases in the Spring, and tends to peak seasonally in the June report.

Seasonally, median prices typically peak in June (closed sales are mostly for contracts signed in April and May).

And seasonally, prices usually bottom the following January (contracts signed in November and December). 

Here is a table of the seasonal percentage increases from January to March, and from January to June (the usual seasonal peak), over the last several years.

The last row shows the seasonal decline from June to January of the following year.  

In 2020, prices continued to increase in the 2nd half of the year and didn't peak seasonally until October.  And prices only declined slightly in the 2nd half of 2021.

	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Jan to Mar	3.7%	4.1%	5.4%	7.5%	7.1%	4.0%	3.8%	2.6%
Mar to Jun	9.6%	9.9%	4.9%	12.4%	9.1%	9.3%	8.7%	NA
Jan to Jun	13.7%	14.4%	10.6%	20.8%	16.8%	13.7%	12.8%	NA
Jun to Jan	-8.9%	-6.7%	3.1%	-3.4%	-12.8%	-7.7%	-7.8%	NA

The 2025 increase in median prices from January to March was less than the normal seasonal increase.

Normally we'd expect median prices to increase about 9% to 10% over the next three months, before declining in the 2nd half of the year.  With more and more inventory, and economic uncertainty, the seasonal increase from March to June will probably be less than 9% this year.

by Calculated Risk on 4/25/2025 10:13:00 AM

The advance estimate of Q1 GDP is scheduled to be released on Wednesday, April 30th. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in real GDP, quarter-over-quarter annualized - or essentially no growth in Q1.

From BofA:

We expect 1Q advance GDP to print at a weak 0.4% q/q saar, largely on the back of an import surge driven by front loading ahead of the tariffs. We look for a rise in 1Q inventory accumulation as well, but not enough to offset higher imports. The risks to our inventory tracking and 1Q GDP print are to the downside, since inventories are susceptible to measurement issues. [Apr 17th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

we lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to -0.2% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Apr 24th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.5 percent on April 24, down from -2.2 percent on April 17. The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is -0.4 percent. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, both the standard model’s and the alternative model’s nowcasts of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 8.9 percent to 7.1 percent. [Apr 24th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 4/25/2025 08:11:00 AM

From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Delinquencies Improved Seasonally in March but Continue to Trend Modestly Higher

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE:ICE) ... today released its March 2025 First Look, which reveals that while delinquency rates edged up slightly year over year (YoY), they remain below pre-pandemic levels.

The ICE First Look reports on month-end delinquency, foreclosure and prepayment statistics sourced from its loan-level database, which covers a majority of the U.S. mortgage market.

Key takeaways from this month’s findings include:

• While serious delinquencies (SDQs) also improved seasonally, they are up 14% (+60K) YoY, with the rise driven entirely by FHA delinquencies, which increased by +63K YoY.

• Higher SDQs, along with the lifting of a VA foreclosure moratorium, fueled a modest bump in foreclosure inventory and sales, which both rose annually for the first time in nearly two years.

• Disaster events, such as hurricanes and wildfires, have led to YoY delinquency increases across several states, including Florida (+44 bps), South Carolina (+17 bps), Georgia (+14 bps) and California (+10 bps).

• Monthly prepayment activity, measured by single-month mortality, jumped to 0.59% – a +30.4% increase over February and the highest level of prepayment activity since November.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a table from ICE.

by Calculated Risk on 4/24/2025 08:46:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• AT 10:00 AM ET, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for April). The consensus is for a reading of 50.8.

by Calculated Risk on 4/24/2025 04:48:00 PM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For March, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 28.5% YoY, but still down 20.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 30.0% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending April 19, 2025

• Active inventory climbed 30.0% from a year ago

The number of homes actively for sale remains significantly higher than last year, continuing a 76-week streak of annual gains.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—fell this week due to the Easter holiday, by 1.6% from a year ago

After 14 consecutive weeks of growth, the number of newly listed homes has dipped below last year’s level. However, this decline is largely attributed to the timing of the Easter holiday, which fell later this year than last. Looking ahead, we expect new listings to rebound in the coming week—a typical pattern that follows the end of a holiday. In fact, the recent momentum in listings made this March the most active March for new inventory in three years.

• The median list price was up 0.6% year-over-year

The national median list price rose by 0.6% year-over-year, marking the first notable price increase after a stretch of declining or flat trends since last June. While this uptick may signal a warming trend at the national level, local markets may tell a different story. In areas where home shoppers rely on stock market funds for down payments, ongoing uncertainty and volatility in the financial market could tighten buyer budgets, dampen demand, and potentially put downward pressure on prices.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 76th consecutive week.  

New listings have generally increased but remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.

Median list prices are up slightly year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 4/24/2025 01:55:00 PM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 19 April

As expected due to the Easter and Passover holidays, the U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 19 April. ...

13-19 April 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 61.4% (-8.1%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$158.00 (-1.3%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$97.06 (-9.3%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking below both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will mostly move sideways until the summer travel season.  We will likely see a hit to occupancy during the summer months due to less international tourism.

by Calculated Risk on 4/24/2025 10:50:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in March; Down 2.4% YoY

Excerpt:

Sales in March (4.02 million SAAR) were down 5.9% from the previous month and were 2.4% below the February 2024 sales rate. This was the 2nd consecutive month with a year-over-year decline, following four consecutive months with a year-over-year increases in sales.
...
Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)

The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2024 and 2025.

Sales decreased 2.4% year-over-year compared to March 2024.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 4/24/2025 10:00:00 AM

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Receded 5.9% in March

Existing-home sales descended in March, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales slid in all four major U.S. regions. Year-over-year, sales dropped in the Midwest and South, increased in the West and were unchanged in the Northeast.

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – fell 5.9% from February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million in March. Year-over-year, sales drew back 2.4% (down from 4.12 million in March 2024).
...
Total housing inventory registered at the end of March was 1.33 million units, up 8.1% from February and 19.8% from one year ago (1.11 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 4.0-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 3.5 months in February and 3.2 months in March 2024.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in March (4.02 million SAAR) were down 5.9% from the previous month and were 2.4% below the February 2024 sales rate.  This was the 2nd consecutive month with a year--over-year decline, following four consecutive months with a year-over-year increases in sales. 

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.33 million in March from 1.23 million the previous month.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was up 19.8% year-over-year (blue) in March compared to March 2024.

Months of supply (red) increased to 4.0 months in March from 3.5 months the previous month.

As expected, the sales rate was below the consensus forecast.  I'll have more later. 

by Calculated Risk on 4/24/2025 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending April 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 215,000 to 216,000. The 4-week moving average was 220,250, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 220,750 to 221,000.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 220,250.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were close to the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 4/23/2025 08:36:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. Initial claims were at 215 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Durable Goods Orders for March from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.8% increase in durable goods orders.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March. This is a composite index of other data.

• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for March from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.14 million SAAR, down from 4.26 million.

• At 11:00 AM, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for April.

by Calculated Risk on 4/23/2025 06:31:00 PM

From WardsAuto: Pre-Tariff U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Surge Continues in April, Sapping Dealer Inventory (pay content).  Brief excerpt:

If the forecast holds firm, inventory will fall below the year-ago month for the first time in nearly three years. Less inventory could take pressure off automakers and dealers to limit price hikes by absorbing some of the higher costs caused by tariffs, if they remain in place. Conversely, it also means a higher mix of pricier vehicles on dealer lots and lower sales volumes – and automakers, at least for now, are more inclined to emphasize production cuts, and not big discounts to consumers, to manage inventory in the face of weakening demand.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for April (Red).

On a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, the Wards forecast of 17.4 million SAAR, would be down 2.1% from last month, and up 8.6% from a year ago.

Car buyers have rushed to buy over the last couple of months to beat the tariffs.  There will be payback in coming months.

by Calculated Risk on 4/23/2025 06:06:00 PM

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.

From the AIA: ABI March 2025: Business conditions at architecture firms soften further

The ABI/Deltek Architecture Billings Index dipped further from February to 44.1 in March, as even more firms reported a decline in billings from the previous month. Since the ABI first dropped below 50 in October 2022, following the post-pandemic boom, billings have declined 27 of the last 30 months. Unfortunately, this softness is likely to continue as indicators of future work remain weak. Inquiries into new work declined for the second month in March, while the value of newly signed design contracts fell for the thirteenth consecutive month. Clients are increasingly nervous about the uncertain economic outlook, and many remain wary of starting new projects at this time. However, backlogs at architecture firms remain reasonably healthy at 6.5 months, on average, which means that even though little new work is coming in currently, they still have a decent amount in the pipeline.

Firm billings continued to decline in all regions of the country in March as well. Billings were softest at firms located in the Northeast for the sixth consecutive month but also weakened further at firms located in the West and Midwest. Firms located in the South reported the smallest decline in billings. Business conditions also remained weak at firms of all specializations, with firms with a multifamily residential specialization continuing to report the softest conditions. Billings were trending stronger at firms with an institutional specialization late last year but have softened significantly since then.
...
The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The score is derived from a monthly survey of architecture firms that measures the change in the number of services provided to clients.
emphasis added

• Northeast (40.5); Midwest (45.5); South (48.3); West (43.0)

• Sector index breakdown: commercial/industrial (46.9); institutional (46.4); multifamily residential (40.3)

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 45.5 in February, down from 45.6 in January.  Anything below 50 indicates a decrease in demand for architects' services.

This index has indicated contraction for 27 of the last 30 months.

Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment throughout 2025 and into 2026.

Multi-family billings remained negative has been negative for the last 32 months.  This suggests we will see continued weakness in multi-family starts.

by Calculated Risk on 4/23/2025 02:17:00 PM

From the National Center for Health Statistics: Births: Provisional Data for 2024. The NCHS reports:

The provisional number of births for the United States in 2024 was 3,622,673, up 1% from 2023. The general fertility rate was 54.6 births per 1,000 females ages 15–44, an increase of less than 1% from 2023. The total fertility rate was 1,626.5 births per 1,000 women in 2024, an increase of less than 1% from 2023. Birth rates declined for females in 5-year age groups 15–24, rose for women in age groups 25–44, and were unchanged for females ages 10–14 and for women ages 45–49 in 2024. The birth rate for teenagers ages 15–19 declined by 3% in 2024 to 12.7 births per 1,000 females; the rates for younger (15–17) and older (18–19) teenagers declined 4% and 3%, respectively.
emphasis added

Here is a long-term graph of annual U.S. births through 2023.

Click on graph for larger image.

Births peaked in 2007 and have generally declined since then.

Note the amazing decline in teenage births.

There is much more in the report.

by Calculated Risk on 4/23/2025 02:03:00 PM

Fed's Beige Book

Economic activity was little changed since the previous report, but uncertainty around international trade policy was pervasive across reports. Just five Districts saw slight growth, three Districts noted activity was relatively unchanged, and the remaining four Districts reported slight to modest declines. Non-auto consumer spending was lower overall; however, most Districts saw moderate to robust sales of vehicles and of some nondurables, generally attributed to a rush to purchase ahead of tariff-related price increases. Both leisure and business travel were down, on balance, and several Districts noted a decline in international visitors. Home sales rose somewhat, and many Districts continued to note low inventory levels. Commercial real estate (CRE) activity expanded slightly as multifamily propped up the industrial and office sectors. Loan demand was flat to modestly higher, on net. Several Districts saw a deterioration in demand for non-financial services. Transportation activity expanded modestly, on balance. Manufacturing was mixed, but two-thirds of Districts said activity was little changed or had declined. The energy sector experienced modest growth. Agricultural conditions were fairly stable across multiple Districts. Cuts to federal grants and subsidies along with declines in philanthropic donations caused gaps in services provided by many community organizations. The outlook in several Districts worsened considerably as economic uncertainty, particularly surrounding tariffs, rose.

Labor Markets

Employment was little changed to up slightly in most Districts, with one District reporting a modest increase, four reporting a slight increase, four reporting no change, and three reporting a slight decline. This is a slight deterioration from the previous report with a few more Districts reporting declines. Hiring was generally slower for consumer-facing firms than for business-to-business firms. The most notable declines in headcount were in government roles or roles at organizations receiving government funding. Several Districts reported that firms were taking a wait-and-see approach to employment, pausing or slowing hiring until there is more clarity on economic conditions. In addition, there were scattered reports of firms preparing for layoffs. Most Districts and markets reported an improvement in overall labor availability, although there were some reports of constraints on labor supply resulting from shifting immigration policies in certain sectors and regions. Wages generally grew at a modest pace, as wage growth slowed from the previous report in multiple Districts.

Prices

Prices increased across Districts, with six characterizing price growth as modest and six characterizing it as moderate, similar to the previous report. Most Districts noted that firms expected elevated input cost growth resulting from tariffs. Many firms have already received notices from suppliers that costs would be increasing. Firms reported adding tariff surcharges or shortening pricing horizons to account for uncertain trade policy. Most businesses expected to pass through additional costs to customers. However, there were reports about margin compression amid increased costs, as demand remained tepid in some sectors, especially for consumer-facing firms.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 4/23/2025 10:35:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 724,000 Annual Rate in March

Brief excerpt:

The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 724 thousand. The previous three months were revised down, combined.
...
The next graph shows new home sales for 2024 and 2025 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). Sales in March 2025 were up 6.0% from March 2024.

New home sales, seasonally adjusted, have increased year-over-year in 21 of the last 24 months. This is essentially the opposite of what happened with existing home sales that had been down year-over-year every month for 3+ years (existing home sales have been up year-over-year for the last 4 or the last 5 months).

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 4/23/2025 10:00:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 724 thousand.

The previous three months were revised down, combined.

Sales of new single-family houses in March 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 724,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 7.4 percent above the February 2025 rate of 674,000, and is 6.0 percent above the March 2024 rate of 683,000.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

New home sales were above pre-pandemic levels.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply decreased in March to 8.3 months from 8.9 months in February.

The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020.

This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

"The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of March 2025 was 503,000. This is 0.6 percent above the February 2025 estimate of 500,000, and is 7.9 percent above the March 2024 estimate of 466,000.

This represents a supply of 8.3 months at the current sales rate. The months' supply is 6.7 percent below the February 2025 estimate of 8.9 months, and is 1.2 percent above the March 2024 estimate of 8.2 months."

Sales were above expectations of 680 thousand SAAR, however sales for the three previous months were revised down, combined. I'll have more later today.

by Calculated Risk on 4/23/2025 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 18, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 11 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 20 percent from the previous week and was 43 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Overall mortgage application activity declined last week, as rates increased to their highest level in two months. The 30-year fixed rate rose for the second straight week to 6.9 percent, an almost 30-basis-point increase over two weeks,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “These higher rates drove a 20 percent drop in refinance applications, especially for higher balance loans, with the average loan size falling substantially. The refinance share of applications at 37.3 percent was the lowest since January. Similar to the previous week, economic uncertainty and rate volatility impacted prospective homebuyers as we saw a 7 percent decline in purchase applications. Both conventional and government purchase activity fell relative to the week before, but the overall level of purchase applications was still 6 percent higher than a year ago.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.90 percent from 6.81 percent, with points increasing to 0.66 from 0.62 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 6% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is up about 22% from the lows in late October 2023 and is 2% above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index decreased.

by Calculated Risk on 4/22/2025 07:44:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for March from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 680 thousand SAAR, up from 676 thousand in February.

• During the day, The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for March (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

• At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

by Calculated Risk on 4/22/2025 12:49:00 PM

Goldman Sachs economists put out a note this morning: When Will Growth Slow, and When Will We Know?

A few brief excerpts:

Most of the sequential inflation increases in the last trade war took place within 2-3 months of the tariffs’ implementation, and we expect spending growth to slow shortly after prices start rising.
...
[W]e expect to see continued softness in the survey data before the hard data start to weaken around mid-to-late summer. Our analysis cautions against dismissing the current deterioration in the survey data despite their recent record, and the evolution of the data in recent weeks is consistent with previous “event-driven” growth slowdowns. Still, it is too early to draw strong conclusions from the limited data we have so far, and we will continue to watch for indications of slower growth in the coming months.

It will take some time for tariffs and policy uncertainty to show up in the hard data. I think we will start seeing the impact of tariffs on inflation in the May or June reports (released in June and July).

We might see the impact earlier on New Home sales. New home sales are reported when the contract is signed, so the report tomorrow will be for contracts signed in March (prior to the April 2nd tariff shock).  But we might see policy and the stock market sell-off impacting April new home sales in the May report.

by Calculated Risk on 4/22/2025 09:49:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions Tightened in Q1 pre-Tariffs

Excerpt:

From the NMHC: Apartment Market Sees Tighter Conditions, Rebounding Deal Flow and Improved Debt Financing in First Quarter

Changes in U.S. trade policy over the past two weeks have impacted global financial markets, causing stock prices to fall (and then partially recover) and long-term yields to increase amidst a retreat of capital from U.S. Treasuries.

This volatility had a noticeable effect on apartment market sentiment captured in the National Multifamily Housing Council’s (NMHC’s) latest Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions. More specifically, apartment executives who responded to this month’s survey after the announcement of tariffs on April 2nd—as opposed to the roughly half of respondents who responded in the days prior—were more likely to report worsening conditions for debt and equity financing as well as decreasing sales volume over the preceding three months.
...
• The Market Tightness Index came in at 52 this quarter – above the breakeven level of 50 for the first time since July 2022 – indicating tighter market conditions. This also appears to be the only index value that wat not meaningfully affected by market volatility this round (it makes sense that it would take longer to observe changes in the supply and demand for physical apartment space).

However, take this quarter’s survey results with a grain of salt. As economists at the NMHC mentioned, the negative impact of policy was probably not picked up in this quarter’s market tightness index.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 4/22/2025 08:12:00 AM

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.36% in March

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 2 basis points from 0.38% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.36% as of March 31, 2025. According to MBA’s estimate, 180,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans. Mortgage servicers have provided approximately 8.6 million forbearances since March 2020.

The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 2 basis points to 0.13% in March 2025. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased by 1 basis points to 0.83%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) decreased 4 basis points to 0.33%.

“Overall mortgage performance improved in March, with more borrowers making their mortgage payments and fewer borrowers in forbearance and loan workouts compared to the prior month,” said MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis Marina Walsh, CMB. “This monthly improvement may be tied to several factors such as receipt of tax refunds and homeowner recovery from natural disasters.”

Added Walsh, “The labor market is relatively healthy, which is helping mortgage performance remain strong. However, compared to one year ago, there are fewer borrowers current on their mortgages. Also, more borrowers in loan workouts – particularly those with FHA loans – are having difficulty staying current.”
...
By reason, 76.0% of borrowers are in forbearance for reasons such as a temporary hardship caused by job loss, death, divorce, or disability. Another 21.4% are in forbearance because of a natural disaster. The remaining 2.6% of borrowers are still in forbearance because of COVID-19.
emphasis added

At the end of March, there were about 180,000 homeowners in forbearance plans.

by Calculated Risk on 4/21/2025 07:33:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Jump Back Toward 7%

The latest headlines involve heavy criticism of Fed Chair Powell on the part of The President. Without any comment on whether that criticism is justified, we can still observe that markets find it unsettling. Traders are expressing that sentiment by pushing stocks lower and rates higher.

Mortgage rates jumped fairly sharply today, with the average lender moving up from 6.87% to just under 7.00% for top tier 30yr fixed scenarios. [30 year fixed 6.98%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for April.

by Calculated Risk on 4/21/2025 02:03:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million in March, down 4.7% from February’s preliminary pace and down 1.5% from last March’s seasonally adjusted pace.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 2.6% from a year earlier.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release March Existing Home sales on Thursday, April 24th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 4.14 million SAAR, down from 4.26 million. Last year, the NAR reported sales in March 2024 at 4.12 million SAAR.

by Calculated Risk on 4/21/2025 02:01:00 PM

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12-month average.

Click on graph for larger image.

On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic increased 0.8% in March compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.   Outbound traffic decreased 0.9% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.

The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday and then decline sharply and bottom in the Winter depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year.  

Imports were up 12% YoY in March and exports were down 9% YoY.    

Recently importers rushed to beat the tariffs.  And port traffic will likely slow sharply in coming months.

by Calculated Risk on 4/21/2025 10:45:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Up 4.9% YoY in March; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets

A brief excerpt:

From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): Elevated interest rates and economic uncertainty ease March home sales, C.A.R. reports

March’s sales pace fell 2.3 percent from the 284,540 homes sold in February and was up 4.9 percent from a year ago, when a revised 264,200 homes were sold on an annualized basis.

...
In March, sales in these markets were down 3.0% YoY. Last month, in February, these same markets were down 6.1% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were the same number of working days in March 2025 (21) as in March 2024 (21). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be close to the change in the NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
...
Several local markets - like Illinois, Miami, New Jersey and New York - will report after the NAR release.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 4/21/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.4% week-over-week.

Inventory is now up 15.2% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing.  

Usually, inventory is up about 6% or 7% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 is seeing a larger than normal pickup in inventory.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 32.6% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 33.4%), and down 16.7% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 17.5%). 

Inventory will pass 2020 levels in the next two weeks, and it now appears inventory will be close to 2019 levels towards the end of 2025.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of April 18th, inventory was at 719 thousand (7-day average), compared to 702 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube

by Calculated Risk on 4/20/2025 06:37:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of April 20, 2025

Monday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 20 and DOW futures are down 128 (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $64.68 per barrel and Brent at $67.96 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $84, and Brent was at $88 - so WTI oil prices are down about 23% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.12 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.66 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.54 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 4/20/2025 10:00:00 AM

This is something to watch with less international travel.

Here are the daily travel numbers from the TSA.

This data is as of April 16, 2025.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA (Blue).

Air travel is up about 1.3% YoY.

The red line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average.  Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - is up about 7% from pre-pandemic levels.

by Calculated Risk on 4/19/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Housing and Demographics

• Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March

• Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different

• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 4/19/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key reports scheduled for this week are March New and Existing Home sales.

For manufacturing, the April Richmond and Kansas City manufacturing surveys will be released.

----- Monday, April 21st -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, April 22nd -----
10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for April.

----- Wednesday, April 23rd -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for March from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

The consensus is for 680 thousand SAAR, up from 676 thousand in February.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for March (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, April 24th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. Initial claims were at 215 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for March from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.8% increase in durable goods orders.

8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March. This is a composite index of other data.

10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for March from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.14 million SAAR, down from 4.26 million.

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for April.

----- Friday, April 25th -----
10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for April). The consensus is for a reading of 50.8.

by Calculated Risk on 4/18/2025 06:42:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So, I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Deaths per Week	419	474	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts. 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths. ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported since Jan 2023.

Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting in June 2023 (low of 314 deaths), I've continued to post since deaths are above the goal again - and I'll continue to post until weekly deaths are once again below the goal.

Weekly deaths are now decreasing following the winter pickup and just under double the low of last June.

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of April 17th:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.  This has been moving down.

Nationally COVID in wastewater is "Low".

by Calculated Risk on 4/18/2025 11:39:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing and Demographics

A brief excerpt:

I’ll return to the above graph and discuss some of the implications for the next decade, but first, here is a similar graph for July 2010.

The arrow points to the large cohort moving into the key renter age group in 2010. It was fifteen years ago that we started discussing the turnaround for apartments. Then, in January 2011, I attended the NMHC Apartment Strategies Conference in Palm Springs, and the atmosphere was very positive. The drivers were 1) very low new supply, and 2) strong demand (favorable demographics, and people moving from owning to renting).

Looking at demographics helped me call the bottom for rents and multi-family construction. And sure, enough multi-family starts bottomed around 2010.
...
What are the implications for the next decade?

by Calculated Risk on 4/18/2025 08:30:00 AM

From BofA:

1Q GDP tracking increased three tenths to 0.7% q/q saar after the upward revisions to Jan and Feb core control retail sales. [Apr 17th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +0.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Apr 17th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.2 percent on April 17, unchanged from April 16 after rounding. The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is -0.1 percent. After this morning’s housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, both the standard model’s and the alternative model’s nowcasts of first-quarter real residential fixed investment growth decreased from 3.7 percent to 2.9 percent. [Apr 17th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 4/17/2025 08:31:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• All US markets will be closed in observance of Good Friday.

• AT 10:00 AM ET, State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for March 2025