by Calculated Risk on 11/13/2023 08:19:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up slightly week-over-week.  This is the latest in the year that inventory was still increasing in this series!  Inventory will start decreasing seasonally soon (for Thanksgiving and Christmas).

Click on graph for larger image.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of November 10th, inventory was at 567 thousand (7-day average), compared to 567 thousand the prior week.   

Year-to-date, inventory is up 15.5%.  And inventory is up 39.6% from the seasonal bottom 30 weeks ago.

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

The red line is for 2023.  The black line is for 2019.  Note that inventory is up from the record low for the same week in 2021, but below last year and still well below normal levels.

Inventory was down 0.9% compared to the same week in 2022 (last week it was down 1.5%), and down 36.5% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 37.9%). 

In 2022, inventory peaked at the end of October (the latest in the year inventory had peaked in this series until this year). I now expect inventory to be up YoY soon.

Inventory is now solidly above the same week in 2020 levels (dark blue line).

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.