Q2 GDP Tracking: Around 2%

The preliminary estimate for Q2 GDP is scheduled to be released this coming Thursday, July 27th. The consensus estimate is for real GDP to increase 1.8% SAAR from Q1.

From BofA:

Data since our last weekly publication moved up our 2Q GDP tracking estimate from 1.5% q/q saar to 1.6%. [July 21st estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We left our Q2 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.5% (qoq ar). Our Q2 domestic final sales growth forecast stands at +2.5%. [July 20th estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.4 percent on July 19, unchanged from July 18 after rounding. [July 19th estimate]