A brief excerpt:
Here is a graph of the year-over-year (YoY) change for these measures since January 2015. All of these measures are through April 2022 (Apartment List through June 2022).There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/
Note that new lease measures (Zillow, Apartment List) dipped early in the pandemic, whereas the BLS measures were steady. Then new leases took off, and the BLS measures are picking up.
The Zillow measure is up 15.9% YoY in May, down from 16.6% YoY in April. This is down from a peak of 17.2% YoY in February.
The ApartmentList measure is up 14.1% YoY as of June, down from 15.4% in May. This is down from the peak of 17.8% YoY last December.
Clearly rents are still increasing, and we should expect this to continue to spill over into measures of inflation in 2022. The Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER) was up 5.1% YoY in May, from 4.8% YoY in April - and will likely increase further in the coming months.
My suspicion is rent increases will slow over the coming months as the pace of household formation slows, and more supply comes on the market.