Inventory usually declines in the winter, and then increases in the spring. Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 27% since then.
Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of May 6th, inventory was at 305 thousand (7-day average), compared to 292 thousand the prior week. Inventory was up 4.5% from the previous week.
Last year inventory bottomed seasonally in April 2021 - very late in the year. This year, by this measure, inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March.
Inventory is still very low. Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is down 1.6% from 310 thousand, but compared to the same week in 2020, and inventory is down 58.3% from 732 thousand. Compared to 3 years ago, inventory is down 66.1% from 902 thousand.
Last year inventory bottomed seasonally in April 2021 - very late in the year. This year, by this measure, inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March.
Inventory is still very low. Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is down 1.6% from 310 thousand, but compared to the same week in 2020, and inventory is down 58.3% from 732 thousand. Compared to 3 years ago, inventory is down 66.1% from 902 thousand.
Here are the inventory milestones I’m watching for with the Altos data:
1. The seasonal bottom (already happened on March 4th for Altos)✅
2. Inventory up year-over-year (likely next week)
3. Inventory up compared to two years ago (currently down 58% according to Altos)
4. Inventory back to 1999 levels (currently down 66%).
For the second milestone, here is a table of the year-over-year change by week since the beginning of the year.
1. The seasonal bottom (already happened on March 4th for Altos)✅
2. Inventory up year-over-year (likely next week)
3. Inventory up compared to two years ago (currently down 58% according to Altos)
4. Inventory back to 1999 levels (currently down 66%).
For the second milestone, here is a table of the year-over-year change by week since the beginning of the year.
| Week Ending | YoY Change |
|---|---|
| 12/31/2021 | -30.0% |
| 1/7/2022 | -26.0% |
| 1/14/2022 | -28.6% |
| 1/21/2022 | -27.1% |
| 1/28/2022 | -25.9% |
| 2/4/2022 | -27.9% |
| 2/11/2022 | -27.5% |
| 2/18/2022 | -25.8% |
| 2/25/2022 | -24.9% |
| 3/4/2022 | -24.2% |
| 3/11/2022 | -21.7% |
| 3/18/2022 | -21.7% |
| 3/25/2022 | -19.0% |
| 4/1/2022 | -17.6% |
| 4/8/2022 | -14.8% |
| 4/15/2022 | -13.1% |
| 4/22/2022 | -11.2% |
| 4/29/2022 | -4.9% |
| 5/6/2022 | -1.6% |
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in the Altos data.
The blue trend line is from the beginning of the year, and the red trend line is over the last 8 weeks.
Currently it appears inventory will be up year-over-year next week.
Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
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