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Friday, October 08, 2021

Q3 GDP Forecasts: Significant Downgrades

by Calculated Risk on 10/08/2021 12:34:00 PM

Here is a table of some of the forecasts over the last 2+ months. The significant downgrades during the quarter were primarily due to analysts initially underestimating the recent COVID wave, and also the impact of supply chain disruptions.


From BofA Merrill Lynch:
We are taking down 3Q GDP tracking to 2% from 3.8% previously, reflecting a reassessment of equipment and inventories, and the likely soft retail sales data. [Oct 8 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
Following today’s payroll miss and outright decline in education payrolls, we lowered our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by ¼pp to 3¼% (qoq ar). [Oct 8 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 1.3 percent on October 8 [Oct 8 estimate]